"It will take a lot to go wrong for Biden to lose"

@pdockal reading is not your strongest skill, is it? I already said my country did pay reparations and that you and your family didn't steal anything. And if you don't know who the land was stolen from by the initial immigrants, maybe you need to learn about American history more than I do.

@NerdyPotato

I can read just fine
Do you really think i care that your country did anything and it doesn't mean that they were right to do so
Based on your logic every person not indigenous to their land needs to pay reperations
Regardless of your insult you still haven't clarified why i should pay Reperations to anybody ..... but i guess your NOT every going to and truthfully i don't care about your misguided opinion
Good bye
Good luck

[quote]@pdockal because the land you live on was stolen. Maybe not by you, but you do enjoy the result of theft.[/quote]

@IronHamster so you believe that 2016 was rigged? omg get help

@IronHamster exactly right, only the sleeping people don’t realise this

@Aidankenny23 Look carefully. Democrats projected after the 2016 election. Get it?

@Gusman
[quote]https://nypost.com/2020/08/15/barack-obama-reportedly-undercuts-bidens-2020-white-house-run/[/quote]

The NY Post is the glossy newsstand version of the National Enquirer, that latter of who's Editor David Pecker uses his tabloid to fully endorse Donald J. Trump for President.

If you read the NY Post, then one would also have to assume that you also read the National Enquirer because both tabloids are of the same ilk.

@Aidankenny23 oh...oh...you have to stick to the script...[i][b]eligible voters[/b][/i]. Too bad it's a red herring, and only the number of registered voters is actually relevant. Try casting a ballot if you aren't registered, and then use the excuse, "but I'm eligible." 🤣You're too much of a coward and will hide behind the eligible smoke screen, because then you'd have to admit that [b]94.6% of registered voters[/b] cast a ballot in 2020...which is a statistical anomaly requiring further investigation. Proof? No, my low sloping fire headed friend...that's called evidence. Then when you assess the fact that 12-13% of voter registrations are invalid (people move, die, etc. and the registries aren't scrubbed regularly) then you see there were more ballots than registered voters. Nope...can't go to the place where too many ballots were cast...but it's the only way the pants-shitter-in-chief could win.

[quote]Lichtmann is a respected statistician and knows what he's talking about. He also uses data to back up his assertions. The voters in bellweather counties can barely back up a tractor.[/quote]
The bellwether counties have a better track record than your DNC hack. Yeah...he's so great that Trump takes 12 of his 13 key metrics, but he still picks Biden? Seriously...we know Biden got smoked in 2020, and he's done an absolutely shitty job as pResident. Tons of democrats are flipping. Biden just had a shit ton of pollsters fired because his numbers are dismal. You ask people if they are better off today than 4 years ago...you get a resounding "hell no!" Go into the communities of color, they are supporting Trump in greater numbers than ever. Union leaders are telling the public...the workers are backing Trump. But your stats guy is ignoring that as well as his own metrics. Perhaps he knows more about election fraud than statistics. BTW...back in 2017, he also predicted Trump would be impeached...how would a statistician possibly have insight into something like that? You see...your "statistician" is nothing more than a DNC hack with some inside information.

[quote]There is absolutely NO proof of any of this.[/quote]
Now...this is where you expose yourself as a total nimrod. It's called [b][i]evidence[/i][/b]. And there's a lot of it. How would the courts possibly know when they never bothered to look at the evidence? Putin said he prefers Biden, and y'all keep saying Russia hacked the election with absolutely no evidence. Libs can't keep their story or their logic straight. Just like the border...for 3 years, Biden said the border was secure until the last few months. Now the border is a disaster, and libs point the finger at the GOP. Y'all are pathetic.

The country is on a path to a kinetic civil war. We're in a war now...the informational variety...there's just no shooting. Yet. And that's not just me pontificating...several others agree. It's inevitable. I don't know when it starts, because that depends on certain things occurring. If Trump beats the cheat in 2024, the shooting begins sooner. If the communists successfully steal 2024...the shooting occurs later when the people can no longer deal with the oppression. You strike me as one of the useful idiots the commies always kill first.

@BizSuitStacy

[quote][quote] oh...oh...you have to stick to the script...eligible voters. Too bad it's a red herring, [b]and only the number of registered voters is actually relevant.[[/b]/quote][/quote]

Yes indeed. Only the votes by registered voters will count because, guess what, you can't vote if you're not registered, even if you are eligible.

Nevertheless, the number of eligible voters is NOT a red herring, because guess what?
[big][b][u]
Voter Turnout Is Calculated From The Number of Eligible Voters, NOT The Number Of Registered Voters!
[/u][/b][/big]

It always has been.

66.8% of ELIGIBLE voters voted in the 2020 election, NOT 66.8% of REGISTERED voters! And of course almost all registered voters voted. Otherwise why bother registering, as I've said before.

There were 168.1 million REGISTERED voters during the 2020 election. Of those, almost 159 million actually VOTED (and not just for Biden or Trump). That's 94.6% of the registered voters. No anomaly there, sorry :)

And finally, because you know this as well as I do, what evidence do you actually have that 74 million people voted for Trump, but 81 million people DID NOT vote for Biden?

Exactly. None.

Anyway, I'm done here :) But you know what? I [i]really [/i]hope 2024 [i]is[/i] fixed. We can't have Trump back in power.

And if you truly believe that 2020 was fixed, then there's nothing you can do about 2024 either.

It's been fixed.

Biden will win.

Trump will lose.

Therefore, do not vote. :)

@TheOneyouwerewarnedabout I better get my fishing trip in before we get nuked.

@jenmil [quote]As another election looms, Lichtmann is not impressed by polls that show Trump leading Biden, prompting a fatalistic mood to take hold in Washington DC and foreign capitals.

“They’re mesmerised by the wrong things, which is the polls. First of all, polls six, seven months before an election have zero predictive value. They would have predicted President Michael Dukakis. They would have predicted President Jimmy Carter would have defeated Ronald Reagan, who won in a landslide; Carter was way ahead in some of the early polls.

“Not only are polls a snapshot but they are not predictors. They don’t predict anything and there’s no such thing as, ‘if the election were held today’. That’s a meaningless statement.”

He is likely to make his pronouncement on the 2024 presidential election in early August. He notes that Biden already has the incumbency key in his favour and, having crushed token challengers in the Democratic primary, has the contest key too. “That’s two keys off the top. That means six more keys would have to fall to predict his defeat. A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose.”[/quote]

@IronHamster [quote] Every official who claimed it was the most secure election should be on trial. [/quote] Why? You know there is no evidence that Biden stole the election. Get over it, because believe me you're going to feel the pain in November as well!

@dakotaviper Yes he did. The votes were counted because a lot of the states don't allow the mail-in votes to be counted before the election.

[quote]Then 27 minutes later, Trump increased in vote total by 103 votes for just over 74 million votes, but Biden increased his lead to just over 81 million votes.[/quote]
Tell me you
Don’t know the intricacies of how vote totals are tallied without telling me you don’t know the intricacies of how vote totals are tallied.

@JSul3 but it wasn't stolen.

Or since the Democrats said that it was stolen, then it's 100% Factual.
But when the Republicans say it's stolen, it become 100% High Treason.

You cannot have it both ways!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

@dakotaviper It was stolen. The Supreme Court halted the count when it was going in Gore's favour. Plus, many Black votes for Gore were discarded. Plenty of evidence for that. However, unlike Trump, who still hasn't accepted he lost fair and square, Gore DID accept it, regardless of what he thought. Move on.

@JSul3 Actually, the EC system generally favors less populous states and Republicans, so I doubt they want to change it.

Either way, it’s still not going away, so you’re just howling at the moon.

@BohemianBoo I agree it’s a total toss up. But I would expect something big to drop like a week before the elections , designed to sway voters.

@BohemianBoo As this analysis of Lichtmann says:

[quote] And before you say "well, Biden's too old and that makes this different", keep in mind that the case has been made that "this year is different and the model is wrong" many, many times. Most obviously 2016, when it predicted a Trump win, but also in 2008 when Obama was the first black candidate, and in 2012 to some degree when Lichtman predicted Obama's re-election in late 2010.

To me, the idea that Biden's age alone, say, can defeat a robust historical pattern like this seems like a really tough case to make. It would be easier to make that case if he were running against Haley or DeSantis, but maybe this model has gotten lucky in the past with his prediction record, and it will get lucky because he's running against... Trump[/quote]

@Aidankenny23 It's not just Biden's age. It's the Gazan Genocide, which is going to cause a lot of Democrats to not vote this year. There's also all of the new voter-restriction laws that the Republicans made after they lost in 2020. A lot of people who want to vote this time won't be able to. Yeah, Obama and Trump were both longshots, but during that time it was much easier to vote. This time, the Republicans are making it as hard as possible
Bottomline, this means nothing, we all have to vote for Biden.

@1490wayb Then your choice is Democracy (Biden) or Authoritarian Fascism (Trump).

@1490wayb Neither do I, but it has to be Biden if you want a better choice in future.

@Aidankenny23 I think I’m going to vote for Mr Ed or maybe Francis

@Gusman
Not really! Let's look at the facts before we jump to conclusions about the 2016 Election.

First of all and according to collected statistics at the time, only 51% of all Americans even showed up to vote in the 2016 Presidential Election.

Of those who showed up to vote, 51% voted for Trump while 49% voted for Ms Clinton.

51 percent of 51 percent, equals 26%.

What this means is, it only took 26% of all 330 million eligible Americans voters out there to put Trump into the President's office. This means it only took 26% of the entire American population to make Trump the President, which had nothing whatsoever to do with the Electoral College vote.

What put Trump into the Presidency was the apathy of American voters, meaning those Americans who sat on their asses at home and never even bothered to show up at the polling stations to cast their ballot on Election Day.

Of particular interest you may find, is that the 26% who voted Trump into the Presidency were statistically comprised of unemployed White males who were not educated beyond the level of high school, whom are referred to as non-college educated Americans.

The reason that particular group showed up to vote when most other Americans did not show up at all, was because those unemployed and uneducated White guys were basically sitting around with time on their hands when Trump promised them a future!

@Bumbles Dearborn won’t vote for JoeB.

@Bumbles I'm not so sure. Trump's solution is nuking the area. I don't think Israel likes that more than Biden's continued weapon supplies.

@ElwoodBlues Would be cool. Do you know about Lichtmann's 13 keys? They seem to work so far. He even predicted Trump would be impeached even before he was elected.

@SandWitch He explained why he didn't predict the 2000 election correctly.

Also, I get the feeling that if he was predicting a Trump victory, you'd be happy to take his word for it. Also, the election is not a House; it's 160 million people. But 160 million predictable people.

@Aidankenny23
You have conveniently skirted the issue that you presented here in your original post.

Your original post was not about Lichtmann's prediction, your post was actually about expressing your feeling of having 100% confidence in Lichtmann's prediction.

Your post is NOT about Lichtmann, your post is actually about YOU! That's why you suddenly changed the focus of your narrative after I challenged you because you realized that I was catching up with your modus operandi for posting as you do.

This is why you are now attempting to change the subject of your own thread by hijacking it's original focus.

@Torsten they already do. Ever since the lobotomy