"It will take a lot to go wrong for Biden to lose"

The current prediction of Professor Allan Lichtmann, who has predicted every election correctly (except 2000) since 1984.

Not that we didn't know Trump is already toast, but.. 😎

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SandWitch · 26-30, F

Professor Lichtmann does NOT have a 100% track record for predicting correctly. He predicted incorrectly for the 2000 Election as you've stated.

Since 1984, there have been 10 Presidential Elections in the USA. If he missed his prediction by just ONE in the year 2000 Election, that means he only runs a 90% average of predicting correctly over the last 10 Elections. This also means that his predictions have been wrong at least 10% of the time over the last 40 years.

Yet there you are with this knowledge that you provided to us, but you still have 100% confidence in your own mind that Lichtmann will be correct by a factor of 100%, despite his own track record that only validates his prediction accuracy factor by 90% at best.

For you to have 100% confidence that he'll be correct in the 2024 Election, points to the fact that you're in denial of the fact that his predictions are accurate only 90% of the time.

You sound like a guy who spends way too much time at the gambling casino playing the odds that you'll be right on your next pull of the one-armed bandit while believing that the odds against the 'house' are stacked in your favor. 🎰

Aidankenny23 · M

@SandWitch He explained why he didn't predict the 2000 election correctly.

Also, I get the feeling that if he was predicting a Trump victory, you'd be happy to take his word for it. Also, the election is not a House; it's 160 million people. But 160 million predictable people.

SandWitch · 26-30, F

@Aidankenny23
You have conveniently skirted the issue that you presented here in your original post.

Your original post was not about Lichtmann's prediction, your post was actually about expressing your feeling of having 100% confidence in Lichtmann's prediction.

Your post is NOT about Lichtmann, your post is actually about YOU! That's why you suddenly changed the focus of your narrative after I challenged you because you realized that I was catching up with your modus operandi for posting as you do.

This is why you are now attempting to change the subject of your own thread by hijacking it's original focus.