"It will take a lot to go wrong for Biden to lose"

The current prediction of Professor Allan Lichtmann, who has predicted every election correctly (except 2000) since 1984.

Not that we didn't know Trump is already toast, but.. 😎

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BohemianBoo · M

Meh. We're living in unprecedented and truly insane times. Trump can still easily win.

AthrillatheHunt · 51-55, M

@BohemianBoo I agree it’s a total toss up. But I would expect something big to drop like a week before the elections , designed to sway voters.

Aidankenny23 · M

@BohemianBoo As this analysis of Lichtmann says:

[quote] And before you say "well, Biden's too old and that makes this different", keep in mind that the case has been made that "this year is different and the model is wrong" many, many times. Most obviously 2016, when it predicted a Trump win, but also in 2008 when Obama was the first black candidate, and in 2012 to some degree when Lichtman predicted Obama's re-election in late 2010.

To me, the idea that Biden's age alone, say, can defeat a robust historical pattern like this seems like a really tough case to make. It would be easier to make that case if he were running against Haley or DeSantis, but maybe this model has gotten lucky in the past with his prediction record, and it will get lucky because he's running against... Trump[/quote]

BohemianBoo · M

@Aidankenny23 It's not just Biden's age. It's the Gazan Genocide, which is going to cause a lot of Democrats to not vote this year. There's also all of the new voter-restriction laws that the Republicans made after they lost in 2020. A lot of people who want to vote this time won't be able to. Yeah, Obama and Trump were both longshots, but during that time it was much easier to vote. This time, the Republicans are making it as hard as possible
Bottomline, this means nothing, we all have to vote for Biden.