"It will take a lot to go wrong for Biden to lose"

@BizSuitStacy Well, your reading of his 13 keys is almost completely wrong.

1, 2 and 3, correct.

4. [quote] There is a strong 3rd party candidate. Liberal RFK Jr who will take votes from Biden.[/quote]There IS NO significant third party or independent campaign. It initially looked like No Labels was getting traction and RFK Jr. was polling quite well. Now, No Labels is a dud with Manchin and Hogan declining to run, and RFK Jr. still polling well but not on any swing state ballots except maybe Arizona and Georgia yet. Even assuming he gets onto those ballots, his support will fizzle out.

Also, RFK is no liberal. If he takes votes at all, which is unlikely, it will mainly be from Trump.


5. The economy is not in recession during the election campaign:[quote]Short term economy sucks [/quote]. Nope, the economy is roaring.

6. Real per capita growth equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms: [quote]Long term economy sucks[/quote] You are kidding, right? Even if there were no further growth, Biden already has this one locked down. In order for this key to work against him, a COVID level recession would have to hit in a few months 😂

7. The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy: TRUE. The IRA, infrastructure, gun safety, stimulus checks, reversal of the Trump admin’s executive orders lead this to be true. Plus Obama never said that about Biden.

8. There is no sustained social unrest during the term: This is fine for Biden. I know you WANT the anti-Israeli protests to turn into the next Black Lives matter, but it's not going to happen. Also, the only time this key has gone against the incumbent is in 1968, and 2020. And Trump lost BIGLY in 2020, as you know.

9. The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal: TRUE. This is so funny, that you actually think Biden is surrounded by scandal. Maybe on SW hehe. You know as well as I do that the Hunter allegations blew up with the Russia connections indictment recently, and the House is nowhere close to impeaching Biden, even though they've had 4 years.

10. The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Afghanistan withdrawal was started by Trump, as you know. Admittedly, if Ukraine gets much worse this could count against him. Also, of course, people are NOT happy with Biden's complicitness in the Israeli genocide.

11. The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs: Probably you're right.

12. The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. No he isn't. Agreed

13. The challenging party candidate is NOT charismatic or a national hero. No sorry. Trump only appeals to MAGA cultists such as yourself. Most of America, and indeed the world, can't stand him.

So, let's be kind. Biden loses 4 keys. (1, 10, 11, and 12). He wins 9. Looks like this is 4 more years for Biden 😎

Also worth noting that NONE of this is conditional upon Trump getting convicted, which will only boost Biden when he does hehe.


Fact remains, Trump will lose in November.

@Aidankenny23
Riiiight...I just made it all up 🙄🤣
Do you read anything besides the Archie comic books?

Oh look...you're wrong. Again.
https://politicalpulse.net/us-politics/alan-lichtmans-prediction-for-2024/

[quote]Fact remains, Trump will lose in November.[/quote]
No, it's not a fact. It's not November, and we haven't yet had the election. You're just clinging to the hope that professor Idiot's metrics don't hold true.

Biden will lose. We all know he lost in 2020, and he's made Jimmy Carter look brilliant, so he will lose again. Dems will cheat. The only question is will they steal the election and get away with it again?

@BizSuitStacy [quote]We all know he lost in 2020[/quote]. That's how I know that Lichtmann has triggered you BIGLY. I [i]guarantee[/i] you will be blocking me before November 5th; I know you will be too scared to face me when Trump loses again :)

@Aidankenny23 oh little Kenny...let me explain so even [b]you[/b] can understand it.
Trump didn't lose. The dems cheated.

Biden was a two time loser in his prior presidential attempts. And that's when he still had his full neural capabilities...which, as politicians go, wasn't much. Fast forward a couple decades, with obvious senility having set in, he campaigns mostly from his basement, draws crowds of tens, loses 18 out of 19 bellwether counties, all kinds of voting abnormalities occur that no one is allowed to investigate, and with Trump leading bigly in the swing states...we suddenly stop counting ballots...and miraculously, Biden somehow wins, getting more votes than anyone ever. Mind you, the incumbent, also surpassed all voting records by a lot. You see, there were 159 million total votes recorded, and a total of 168 million registered voters. That's a 94.6% turnout...which is unheard of. Voter turnout is typically 65-75% of registered voters. But wait...there's more. Not every voter on the registry is legit. People die. People move out of county or state. Do the registries get cleaned up...not so much. About 12-13% of the voter registry is invalid every election. When people move, they have to re-register. That doesn't mean the old registration gets removed. If 12% of the registry is invalid, that means there were really only 148 million legitimate voters in 2020. But there were 159 million votes tallied. Oops. Gee Kenny, could there be more votes than voters?

When you mock up millions of fake ballots and then ship them accordingly in the middle of the night over the course of three days, that's how.

Had these anomalies occurred and Trump won as a result...the left would have started a civil war and burned the country down.

You're a typical lib. Probably brainwashed. Not terribly sharp. Extremely predictable because you simply parrot the leftist narrative like the well conditioned sheep that you are. I've blown up every single one of your narratives/lies.

Why would I block you when I'm having so much fun schooling you?

@MarmeeMarch And I'm sure you will, if Trump dares to debate Biden (which he won't). And Biden will have answers, while Trump will be crying about STOLEN ELECTIONS and WITCH HUNTS!

@Aidankenny23 oh...oh...you have to stick to the script...[i][b]eligible voters[/b][/i]. Too bad it's a red herring, and only the number of registered voters is actually relevant. Try casting a ballot if you aren't registered, and then use the excuse, "but I'm eligible." 🤣You're too much of a coward and will hide behind the eligible smoke screen, because then you'd have to admit that [b]94.6% of registered voters[/b] cast a ballot in 2020...which is a statistical anomaly requiring further investigation. Proof? No, my low sloping fire headed friend...that's called evidence. Then when you assess the fact that 12-13% of voter registrations are invalid (people move, die, etc. and the registries aren't scrubbed regularly) then you see there were more ballots than registered voters. Nope...can't go to the place where too many ballots were cast...but it's the only way the pants-shitter-in-chief could win.

[quote]Lichtmann is a respected statistician and knows what he's talking about. He also uses data to back up his assertions. The voters in bellweather counties can barely back up a tractor.[/quote]
The bellwether counties have a better track record than your DNC hack. Yeah...he's so great that Trump takes 12 of his 13 key metrics, but he still picks Biden? Seriously...we know Biden got smoked in 2020, and he's done an absolutely shitty job as pResident. Tons of democrats are flipping. Biden just had a shit ton of pollsters fired because his numbers are dismal. You ask people if they are better off today than 4 years ago...you get a resounding "hell no!" Go into the communities of color, they are supporting Trump in greater numbers than ever. Union leaders are telling the public...the workers are backing Trump. But your stats guy is ignoring that as well as his own metrics. Perhaps he knows more about election fraud than statistics. BTW...back in 2017, he also predicted Trump would be impeached...how would a statistician possibly have insight into something like that? You see...your "statistician" is nothing more than a DNC hack with some inside information.

[quote]There is absolutely NO proof of any of this.[/quote]
Now...this is where you expose yourself as a total nimrod. It's called [b][i]evidence[/i][/b]. And there's a lot of it. How would the courts possibly know when they never bothered to look at the evidence? Putin said he prefers Biden, and y'all keep saying Russia hacked the election with absolutely no evidence. Libs can't keep their story or their logic straight. Just like the border...for 3 years, Biden said the border was secure until the last few months. Now the border is a disaster, and libs point the finger at the GOP. Y'all are pathetic.

The country is on a path to a kinetic civil war. We're in a war now...the informational variety...there's just no shooting. Yet. And that's not just me pontificating...several others agree. It's inevitable. I don't know when it starts, because that depends on certain things occurring. If Trump beats the cheat in 2024, the shooting begins sooner. If the communists successfully steal 2024...the shooting occurs later when the people can no longer deal with the oppression. You strike me as one of the useful idiots the commies always kill first.

@BizSuitStacy

[quote][quote] oh...oh...you have to stick to the script...eligible voters. Too bad it's a red herring, [b]and only the number of registered voters is actually relevant.[[/b]/quote][/quote]

Yes indeed. Only the votes by registered voters will count because, guess what, you can't vote if you're not registered, even if you are eligible.

Nevertheless, the number of eligible voters is NOT a red herring, because guess what?
[big][b][u]
Voter Turnout Is Calculated From The Number of Eligible Voters, NOT The Number Of Registered Voters!
[/u][/b][/big]

It always has been.

66.8% of ELIGIBLE voters voted in the 2020 election, NOT 66.8% of REGISTERED voters! And of course almost all registered voters voted. Otherwise why bother registering, as I've said before.

There were 168.1 million REGISTERED voters during the 2020 election. Of those, almost 159 million actually VOTED (and not just for Biden or Trump). That's 94.6% of the registered voters. No anomaly there, sorry :)

And finally, because you know this as well as I do, what evidence do you actually have that 74 million people voted for Trump, but 81 million people DID NOT vote for Biden?

Exactly. None.

Anyway, I'm done here :) But you know what? I [i]really [/i]hope 2024 [i]is[/i] fixed. We can't have Trump back in power.

And if you truly believe that 2020 was fixed, then there's nothing you can do about 2024 either.

It's been fixed.

Biden will win.

Trump will lose.

Therefore, do not vote. :)