Voter turnout will be way up among Democrats due to the abortion issue.

Trump will lose support due to convictions and obvious mental deterioration.

The Gaza war will be over and progressive voters will hold their noses and vote for Biden because they know Trump will be worse.

Biden will win the popular vote and electoral college. Trump supporters will commit stochastic violence.

Sadly, I agree on all counts. Like many Americans, I hope for both parties finding better candidates, but am not optimistic. These two are the best we can do? How sad is that. And after trunp wins he pardons himself and stops all legal challenges...but his growing dementia, which is now in the beginning stages, make him more and more unfit...and whoever his vice president is eventually takes over...all this is so sad for regular Americans who care and work and believe in democracy...

I will throw out this guess -- and it is more guess than prediction -- that Biden withdraws just before, or at the start, of the Democratic Convention, throwing it to a wide open convention where most of the delegates are Biden supporters. He gets to withdraw on his terms salvaging his ego, while pretty much secures a successor following his generally moderate middle of the road policies. I don't know whether that is a glass half full or half empty scenario. It is likely to lead to a battle between California's Newsom and Harris -- both with their own baggage -- and certainly all the historic negatives of back room deals at wide open conventions. Otoh, it could lead to the interesting emergence of a new face hardly known.

Second off-the-wall guess: Nikki Haley pivots to one of the "third" parties already on the ballots in most states, giving moderate Republicans and moderate Democrats a choice under age 80. Which is why she is still staying in the Republican primaries: for the big stage and megaphone as long as she can, since third parties do not normally get much traction. And some third parties are willing to go outside their small group of partisans to get some traction.

And all the knock-on effects from that to follow.

Trump's constant b/s to camera and those godawful tweets.
Rejection from just about everywhere in Europe, not keen to make the same mistake twice.
Massive rise in American company stock prices at home; absolutely worthless if you're a shareholder abroad because nobody will want to buy whatever you own to sell.
Possible rise in covid infections.....Remember the "Nothing stops business" comment as he opened the door from Wuhan to the U.S and beyond ? Again, Europe well bitten by that one last time so keep an eye on Boeing stock prices as Europe slams the door on travellers from the U.S. since a sizable % of them won't have had any vaccinations.....

Nothing good will come from it.

I expect voter turnout to be high b/c of the SCOTUS controversial ROE decision

I don't know. Like many of the people commenting, I'm not American.

Fwiw, Trump is favourite with British bookmakers but not overwhelmingly. It's still well in contention.

The impression I get from most of my American liberal friends on here is that Biden shouldn't be running again. Though his administration has done a competent job, he is an old man who struggles to finish his sentences It doesn't look good and that is why so many independents are leaning towards Trump. In addition, the US economy was performing well while Trump was in the Whitehouse and people will give him credit for that, however little Trump had to do with it.

I think Biden does deserve criticism for the Palestine issue but I also don't think that this is the primary problem. A competent generic Democrat (like Gavin Newsome) would beat Trump, who is also a flawed candidate.

I believe that Newsom will swoop in at the last minute and save the Democrats.

Harris is not ready, nor will she ever be.

That's one of the more plausible scenarios, but only one of them.
Don't know how many Democratic voters are "friends of the Palestinian people" – probably a lot.

I thought the voter turnout in 2020 was the highest in decades. Can you source your information? Thanks

i to am concerned.. oddly how things like TIKTOK can have such effect on our system

many things can still happen,,, Random crap may be our best hope

6. "Progressive" dems when Trump will order the detonation of a tactical nuke over Gaza on Jan 21st, 2025:

Your probably right on all your points

I don't know. I think MAGA has shrunk but they are very loud so it's hard to determine their size.

Independents are likely to go hard for Biden if elections over the past two years indicate much.

The number of Never Trumpers in the republican party have galvanized and will likely not vote for president or even cross party lines, though they will follow party lines down ticket.

I really could see it breaking either way. If the Israel/Gaza situation didn't explode, it probably would have been an easy win for Biden though. The mid-east conflict really put him in a hard spot and he was going to piss off a lot of supporters either way he went. Being in DC he's largely exposed to the zionists, so he's got that bias. Zionists also tend to be bigger campaign contributors which I'm sure influenced things as well. That is the major issue putting him at risk. The only people that really care about his age are the same people ignoring the decline their own candidate.

We shall see.

I predict that Biden will step out of the game at the last minute before voting begins.

Which makes BinBiden's "win" an anomoly.