Predictions for Election 2024

1. Voter turnout way down on 2020, and probably lower than at any time since WW2.

2. Trump’s support will remain relatively stable, although probably less than in 2020.

3. Biden’s support will collapse, mainly due to his stance on Israel, with Democrat voters turning more to progressive third-party choices.

4. Independent turnout will also be way down.

5. Biden will probably still win the popular vote, but the EC will ensure Trump wins by a landslide.

I hope I’m wrong.

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ViciDraco · 36-40, M

I don't know. I think MAGA has shrunk but they are very loud so it's hard to determine their size.

Independents are likely to go hard for Biden if elections over the past two years indicate much.

The number of Never Trumpers in the republican party have galvanized and will likely not vote for president or even cross party lines, though they will follow party lines down ticket.

I really could see it breaking either way. If the Israel/Gaza situation didn't explode, it probably would have been an easy win for Biden though. The mid-east conflict really put him in a hard spot and he was going to piss off a lot of supporters either way he went. Being in DC he's largely exposed to the zionists, so he's got that bias. Zionists also tend to be bigger campaign contributors which I'm sure influenced things as well. That is the major issue putting him at risk. The only people that really care about his age are the same people ignoring the decline their own candidate.