Predictions for Election 2024

1. Voter turnout way down on 2020, and probably lower than at any time since WW2.

2. Trump’s support will remain relatively stable, although probably less than in 2020.

3. Biden’s support will collapse, mainly due to his stance on Israel, with Democrat voters turning more to progressive third-party choices.

4. Independent turnout will also be way down.

5. Biden will probably still win the popular vote, but the EC will ensure Trump wins by a landslide.

I hope I’m wrong.

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Burnley123 · 41-45, M

I don't know. Like many of the people commenting, I'm not American.

Fwiw, Trump is favourite with British bookmakers but not overwhelmingly. It's still well in contention.

The impression I get from most of my American liberal friends on here is that Biden shouldn't be running again. Though his administration has done a competent job, he is an old man who struggles to finish his sentences It doesn't look good and that is why so many independents are leaning towards Trump. In addition, the US economy was performing well while Trump was in the Whitehouse and people will give him credit for that, however little Trump had to do with it.

I think Biden does deserve criticism for the Palestine issue but I also don't think that this is the primary problem. A competent generic Democrat (like Gavin Newsome) would beat Trump, who is also a flawed candidate.

ViciDraco · 41-45, M

@Burnley123 The thing is Biden's skin has done really well in most areas except the Gaza situation. Even our economy is better, though the right tries to deny it constantly the numbers don't lie.

I would have preferred Biden stepping down over his age, but also Trump is also in serious decline. He's only 4 years younger, the age Biden was for the last election when he was already being attack for being too old.

Independents over the past few years have largely rejected Trump supported candidates. A bit of a saying has started up that Republicans can't win their primaries without him, but they can't win general elections with him.

It's going to come in pretty close again.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@ViciDraco I think it's going to be close. British bookmakers have trump as slight favourite because of the polling. The age thing is more of an issue for Biden than trump.