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Predictions for Election 2024

1. Voter turnout way down on 2020, and probably lower than at any time since WW2.

2. Trump’s support will remain relatively stable, although probably less than in 2020.

3. Biden’s support will collapse, mainly due to his stance on Israel, with Democrat voters turning more to progressive third-party choices.

4. Independent turnout will also be way down.

5. Biden will probably still win the popular vote, but the EC will ensure Trump wins by a landslide.

I hope I’m wrong.

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Picklebobble2 · 56-60, M

And all the knock-on effects from that to follow.

Trump's constant b/s to camera and those godawful tweets.
Rejection from just about everywhere in Europe, not keen to make the same mistake twice.
Massive rise in American company stock prices at home; absolutely worthless if you're a shareholder abroad because nobody will want to buy whatever you own to sell.
Possible rise in covid infections.....Remember the "Nothing stops business" comment as he opened the door from Wuhan to the U.S and beyond ? Again, Europe well bitten by that one last time so keep an eye on Boeing stock prices as Europe slams the door on travellers from the U.S. since a sizable % of them won't have had any vaccinations.....

Nothing good will come from it.

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LeopoldBloom · M

@Picklebobble2 I don’t think COVID will be a factor. It’s pretty much gone.

Picklebobble2 · 56-60, M

@LeopoldBloom You think any other country is going to believe that ?
In the UK, as an attempt at saving money, the most under vaccinated group is the 16-30 year old.
Because our government still pins it's hopes on the idea of Herd immunity.
Vaccinate those deemed 'most at risk' making them the majority in a population thus reducing the numbers infected.

From what i can gather, less than 30% Americans are immunized to the same degree as most Europeans.
Thus the odds aren't in the U.S. favour of it being 'eradicated'.

Elessar · 26-30, M

@LeopoldBloom It's only gone from the radars, nowhere else. There's a non-zero chance that it may hybridize with something far more lethal (SARS, MERS, some still unknown bat CoV) and result in a hybrid with the transmissibility and immune evasion of covid and the lethality of the other (30-50% or higher).

It's something that at this point in time you can't do pretty much anything about, and requires some degree of planets aligning, but still technically possible.

Picklebobble2 · 56-60, M

@Elessar I'm seriously interested in how New York city fared during covid.
I mean there's a massive city.
9 million people, many of them living right on top of each other given the types of housing; school sizes; mass transit systems etc. Yet there's so little covid infection data from what could be considered a reliable source publicly available.

Same with similar cities.
Los Angeles; Phoenix; Houston etc.

robb65 · 56-60, M

@Picklebobble2 There never was a chance of it being "eradicated". They were admitting that at least 2 years ago and probably knew it a lot earlier.

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Picklebobble2 · 56-60, M

@robb65 its interesting the choice of words used by pro and anti vaxxers.
And covid believers and deniers.

Americans seem to have a real 'conspiracy theory' edge to public discourse on the subject.
No surprise given who owns those platforms.

But here's the kicker.
Covid and related issues that cause/caused death are rarely heard and certainly not made public.
If they were what do you suppose the outcome would be ?

Why is there such silence from the families of those grieving a loss ?
I mean it must run to at least hundreds if not thousands from sheer population statistics alone.

LeopoldBloom · M

@Picklebobble2 COVID is endemic, but it's not a pandemic any more. It seems to be less virulent and many people probably aren't even aware that they have it. So it's similar to the Spanish Flu, that swept the world for a few years, and then pretty much disappeared.

LeopoldBloom · M

@Elessar If that happens, we'll have to deal with it. Endless lockdowns and mandatory masks and vaccinations aren't going to go over well if they're sold as "but this will prevent the next pandemic." We could also have another outbreak of the Spanish Flu if the annual flu virus mutates to something more lethal as it did 100 years ago.

Picklebobble2 · 56-60, M

@LeopoldBloom Right because viruses just die of natural causes

Elessar · 26-30, M

@LeopoldBloom We didn't need an "endless lockdown", we needed proper testing, quarantines of the positives w/ contact tracing and at most a timely one, actually potentially shorter than the one we had, instead of sitting on our àssess and doing nothing for 3 fùcking months and still being in denial about it when the healthcare was collapsing

SARS-1 was eliminated because back then we didn't elect mòrons, and it took no lockdowns at all.

LeopoldBloom · M

@Picklebobble2 Viruses tend to become less virulent over time. The people dying of COVID now are a tiny fraction of the ones dying in 2020 and 2021.

Elessar · 26-30, M

@LeopoldBloom It's a false myth, viruses tend to become less virulent only when virulency is tied to being less transmissible. SARS-2 mostly spreads before symptom onset, so there's zero evolutionary pressure on it becoming more or less severe, since it doesn't affect how much it spreads.

That omicron is less severe than the original and previous variants is pure a matter of luck; the past ones were increasingly more severe not less. Also the population now has some degree of immunity (from past infection and/or vaccines), which wasn't the case in 2020/21

Picklebobble2 · 56-60, M

@LeopoldBloom That's because governments aren't recording covid deaths.
They're recording deaths due to specific organ failure caused by covid.

If what you suggest were true i don't hear any medical authority declaring that the jab for Omicron killed covid.
Do you ?

LeopoldBloom · M

@Picklebobble2 That's verging on conspiracy theory.

LeopoldBloom · M

@Elessar The fact remains that far fewer people are dying from COVID than before. No credible politician is going to recommend lockdowns or mandatory vaccinations with the disease at its current level. At this point, at-risk people are the only ones who need to take precautions.

Elessar · 26-30, M

@LeopoldBloom Of course, I'm not saying that. Just that the future of this disease remains unknown.

Picklebobble2 · 56-60, M

@LeopoldBloom Tell me any of it is incorrect

LeopoldBloom · M

@Elessar Yes, no one knows what will happen. Eventually another pandemic will come along. But we can close the book on COVID at least as far as public health measures are concerned. If someone is worried about catching it, they can take personal precautions. I regularly see people around here wearing masks, there's nothing wrong with that.

LeopoldBloom · M

@Picklebobble2 Do you have proof that the government or health care organizations are falsifying data? If more people were actually dying of COVID than is being reported, we'd see fewer deaths from other causes.

Picklebobble2 · 56-60, M

@LeopoldBloom Try and find ANY U.S. government statistics on covid deaths.
I keep looking and if there are any they're impossible to find.

Elessar · 26-30, M

@LeopoldBloom We can't, it ought to be monitored just like Influenza needs to be monitored. This is the price we pay for not having eradicated it in time, along with a permanent higher toll on healthcare resources utilization.

LeopoldBloom · M

@Picklebobble2 If you say you can't find accurate statistics, that's an admission that you're just making stuff up.

A quick google search revealed the CDC site showing COVID deaths.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home

LeopoldBloom · M

@Elessar COVID would be impossible to completely eradicate or even track, since it's transmitted easily and is often asymptomatic. All that could be done was to take steps to minimize transmission. However, now that it's become low-grade endemic, it's not a major tax on resources, at least no more than influenza or other endemic diseases are.

Picklebobble2 · 56-60, M

@LeopoldBloom nobody ƁUT you would consider either Google or the CDC are reliable sources of such a thing in the U.S.

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