Predictions for Election 2024

I will throw out this guess -- and it is more guess than prediction -- that Biden withdraws just before, or at the start, of the Democratic Convention, throwing it to a wide open convention where most of the delegates are Biden supporters. He gets to withdraw on his terms salvaging his ego, while pretty much secures a successor following his generally moderate middle of the road policies. I don't know whether that is a glass half full or half empty scenario. It is likely to lead to a battle between California's Newsom and Harris -- both with their own baggage -- and certainly all the historic negatives of back room deals at wide open conventions. Otoh, it could lead to the interesting emergence of a new face hardly known.

Second off-the-wall guess: Nikki Haley pivots to one of the "third" parties already on the ballots in most states, giving moderate Republicans and moderate Democrats a choice under age 80. Which is why she is still staying in the Republican primaries: for the big stage and megaphone as long as she can, since third parties do not normally get much traction. And some third parties are willing to go outside their small group of partisans to get some traction.