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Donald Trump will win reelection. Do you agree ... ?

[quote]The United States
Donald Trump will win reelection (55 percent)
This is a close one, but I think the balance of evidence favors a Trump reelection. The basics are simple: Decades of political science work on election forecasting imply that presidents running for reelection enjoy an incumbency advantage, that a strong economy helps the incumbent’s party, and that high levels of US military fatalities hurt the incumbent’s party.

In short: Trump is the incumbent, the economy is growing while unemployment stays very low, and despite some close calls, Trump hasn’t started new wars or expanded existing ones in ways that kill a lot of US service members. Combine that with Trump’s geographic advantage over the Democratic nominee in the Electoral College, and I think he has a better than even chance of winning.

[/quote]

[b]https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/1/13/21055740/trump-reelection-biden-nomination-brexit-2020-predictions[/b]

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AbbeyRhode · F

Without a doubt. The Democrats are getting so desperate, they'll be digging up Hillary next. 😆

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AbbeyRhode · F

@Thinkerbell 😂

TexChik · F

@AbbeyRhode or Mooochelle

polyandrym66 · 70-79, M

@AbbeyRhode YUP,, the democrats will run a woman and loose..

curiosi · 61-69, F

Anyone with half a brain can see how the country is improving and how libs want socialism witch is a nice name for slaves to the government.

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Harriet03 · 41-45, F

@sunsporter1649 We already sold you one, you mugs!! 😂

sunsporter1649 · 70-79, M

@Harriet03 Only problem is we are not buying your line of baloney

Harriet03 · 41-45, F

@sunsporter1649 🙌

wanderingelf · 61-69, M

Under normal circumstances I'd tend to agree, but these circumstances, and certainly this man, are not normal. Donald Trump is an aberration for any civilized nation, even if (God forbid!) he manages to carry 50% of the vote. While the economic numbers and job creation appear to be very strong at a glance, a deeper look reveals an ever widening income discrepancy, and a taxation structure that is now perilously close to being regressive. I think this election will swing on voter turnout - - higher turnout always favors Democrats, as most Americans actually are Democrats. In 2020, we have a strong mobilizing factor at play: namely, that far more Americans loathe Donald Trump than do not. What's more, they equally loathe the conservative Republicans who enable and protect him. It's not over till it's over, so the hopes of Democrats rest upon huge voter turnout in 2020.

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questionWeaver

@wanderingelf

Trump is awesome... love the guy.

Whiterosesociety

@wanderingelf the Neanderthals had bigger heads though.

Khenpal1 · M

@wanderingelf that's why in free world we have election every 4th year to get rid of mother fuckers 😂

Mbingh01 · 61-69, F

He has my vote for sure. I can’t wait to see the snowflakes have a total meltdown😁

Nimbus · M

@Mbingh01 It's lookin' likely.

raysam363 · 31-35, F

It's extremely likely. His track record on the economy will win him votes just on that, and if the impeachment trial goes the way everyone thinks, it will make it a sure thing.

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Nimbus · M

@raysam363 Good point.

Whiterosesociety

@raysam363 I'm a moron and that monster is toast.

questionWeaver

@raysam363 good summary

windinhishair · 61-69, M

It is unlikely when about 55% of the nation remains opposed to him. But there is a whole election season ahead of us, plus an impeachment trial, so let's see what happens in the next few months before calling the election.

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windinhishair · 61-69, M

@wanderingelf Your comments are spot on. 👍️

Nimbus · M

@wanderingelf Interesting and fair assessment 👍️

sunsporter1649 · 70-79, M

@wanderingelf …..and a partridge in a pear tree

MrBrownstone · 46-50, M

Yes. He’s going against a one legged man in an ass kicking contest.

Nimbus · M

@MrBrownstone 😁

questionWeaver

@MrBrownstone nice one!

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Thinkerbell · 41-45, F

@jackjjackson

Oh, I dunno... NW never seems to tire of hearing himself prattle. 😂

jackjjackson · 61-69, M

Tell him he’s afraid to unblock me. @Thinkerbell

Platinum · M

@jackjjackson you are definitely right about skunk...whatever you call the Scotsman , he suits most comment...

Sunnykel76 · 46-50, F

Yes I think he will, and I'm happy about it.

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akindheart · 61-69, F

@questionWeaver you got it! now they voted for odumbo but they got it right with Trump.

Budwick · 70-79, M

@akindheart Hey, I'm in Ohio too!
Also a HUGE Trump fan.

Nimbus · M

@Sunnykel76 Good to hear :)

TexChik · F

I think he has already won it , just has to wait till November to make it official !

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Nimbus · M

@Khenpal1 Mmmmmmh, dunno.

The Conservative Party in the UK has remained in power since 2010 and much of it is/has been fractured.

TexChik · F

@Khenpal1 pfft

Khenpal1 · M

@Nimbus How much are they conservative ? They can't even agree on Brexit. USA is of a different size and people are voting due to financial situation. You can turn time back like 50 Years and promise old good times as world looks different today. Many USA expats are kicked out of Asia as value of dollar is weak and much higher cost of living. Anyway , Trumps achievements are bullocks . He is just faking how great things are.

whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

If he does I think we can write America off as a world superpower. But I know I will personally blame all Americans. You got a free pass last time because Hilary was your alternative. This time you have no excuse. Now fix this.

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QuixoticSoul · 41-45, M

@sunsporter1649 Don’t you worry, we’ll get our battle of dementia.

jackjjackson · 61-69, M

Alrighty then. Who wins the general? @QuixoticSoul

QuixoticSoul · 41-45, M

@jackjjackson 50/50 :)

JT123 · M

Look at his competition hahahaha

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Thinkerbell · 41-45, F

@Budwick

sunsporter1649 · 70-79, M

@Thinkerbell The democrat impeachment committee.

Graylight · 51-55, F

@sunsporter1649 It's like watching toddlers play in the sandbox.

ExperienceDLT · M

Yes he will win re-election who else running would have any chance? All the candidates suck

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Thinkerbell · 41-45, F

@Graylight

DudeistPriest · M

@ExperienceDLT
[quote]ExperienceDLT
@sunsporter1649 he never sucked he just got sucked[/quote]

DudeistPriest · M

[@Gaylight] Your smug, snotty, arrogant, and superfluous characterizations of others you deem 'below you' bring to mind 1) the original reasons why your team lost in the first place, 2) how you ignorantly do not care to know why (although the reasons stare you in the face), 3) did not learn from your mistakes, 4) have clearly not recovered from them, and so 5) will be repeating them once more...

Your adversary doth thumb his nose at thee.
Next time bet on the [b]Right [/b]pony so you won't be [b]Left [/b]behind.

Harriet03 · 41-45, F

Dont forget that one of Ivankas Chinese patents, was for voting machines!!

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DudeistPriest · M

@Harriet03 In order to prosecute, there must be something of substance. Your beloved DemonRats have manufactured evidence that doesn't exist except in hater's minds. However...

Harriet03 · 41-45, F

@DudeistPriest I am NOT a democrat!! WTF has Hillary Clinton got to do with the question?!!
You need to concentrate on the future, not the past.
It's looking frightening with that embocile.. 😲

DudeistPriest · M

@Harriet03 Of course not, and neither are disingenuous timely evasions. With reservation I politely ask does that mean no dinner tonight?

hippyjoe1955 · 61-69, M

As someone who is sitting north of the the 49th I am not sure why Americans would consider any alternative to Trump. The demoncraps don't have any credibility or candidates worth voting for. Here in Canada our own demoncrap (liberal) is getting people fired, raising taxes and running huuuuuuge deficits that the great grand kids will be paying for. All the while our military is a joke. Our healthcare system in in ruins and our nation is about to split. (the last one is a good thing not a bad thing. Canada is not a country its an empire and its realms are about to leave).

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sunsporter1649 · 70-79, M

@hippyjoe1955 He has a million of them.

hippyjoe1955 · 61-69, M

@sunsporter1649 I always loved his 'rocket surgeon'.

sunsporter1649 · 70-79, M

@hippyjoe1955 LOL, and his yanking out his earpiece when the directors were trying to tell him to shut up

wohgspuj9e

No. Most people don't like him.

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wohgspuj9e

@questionWeaver so? beer drinkers make lots of noise.

questionWeaver

@wohgspuj9e and 100,000 chant "4 more years"

wohgspuj9e

@questionWeaver so? that's dumb. a crowd at a sporting event is not most voting people.

Graylight · 51-55, F

Well, if he does, at least we'll have "the old light bulb" and appliances we don't have to press buttons on 5,6,7,8,9,10 times! It's been so exhausting, what with my windmill cancer and all.
[image deleted]

windinhishair · 61-69, M

@Graylight Oh, Covfefe! Remember to flush 10, 15 times.

Harriet03 · 41-45, F

@Graylight [image deleted]

Budwick · 70-79, M

Yes, I agree.
Trump will win BIGGLY!

Imagine the alternative!!!
Bernie?
Liz?

Graylight · 51-55, F

@Budwick You won't have to imagine it soon.

Budwick · 70-79, M

@Graylight I know, I know, Liz will lose the nomination and then Bernie will die before the election.

Stop trying to cheer me up!

polyandrym66 · 70-79, M

OH YES, he will win hands down looking at the arguing old white men and unimpressive woman in the opposing party vying to run against him.

Nothing can stop his winning overwhelmingly this time unless Oprah Winfrey runs against him (but she is afraid of running)..

Harriet03 · 41-45, F

@polyandrym66 Don't forget Ivanka's Chinese patents for voting machines?!! 🤷‍♀️

sunsporter1649 · 70-79, M

@Harriet03 So?

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sunsporter1649 · 70-79, M

@LeopoldBloom Makes one wonder where all those millions of dollars the federal government is pouring into edducaten is going, does it not?

Whiterosesociety

@sunsporter1649 maybe stolen by that lottery racket in our face everywhere, one dollar to fools paradise and new world blind luck.

So important to remind us that it's NEVER about learning from our mistakes, in the schoolroom or gambling casino. Or life.

LeopoldBloom · M

@sunsporter1649 The federal government is putting [i]less[/i] money into education than when I was in school. They essentially devolved funding onto the states, and the only way to pay for it was to raise tuition costs, which have gone up faster than inflation.

Another extra cost is additional administration. No one ever talks about how to address that.

itsoeasy · 56-60, M

trump tried to start a war with iran,he hasnt pulled the troops out of iraq/ afghan or syria like he vowed he would.

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jackjjackson · 61-69, M

Less troops abroad than when inaugurated and Iran exposed as a toothless tiger with its citizens in the streets demanding overthrow of the clerics. Genius. Dow approaching 30K. Genius. Favorable China trade deal without concessions. Genius. @itsoeasy

hippyjoe1955 · 61-69, M

@jackjjackson I would call itsoeasy an imbecile but that would insult imbeciles everywhere. I could say he is dumb as post but I would have to apologize to posts everywhere. If every village idiot in the world formed their own village itsoeasy would be its village idiot.

jackjjackson · 61-69, M

✅ @hippyjoe1955

jackjjackson · 61-69, M

Hell yes

Graylight · 51-55, F

Entirely possible, though I think the first Bush would take issue with the logic.

We'll have to wait and see. Trump may be re-elected but he'll still have to prove fitness for office.

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sunsporter1649 · 70-79, M

@Graylight Its obvious the democrap party is ignorant of how it works

Graylight · 51-55, F

@sunsporter1649 Shhh...they're warming up your bottle now.

sunsporter1649 · 70-79, M

@Graylight Keep drinking from pelosi's vineyards, she sure is sampling her product

JoeyFoxx · 51-55, M

If the election happened today, he'd win.

In November? Who knows?

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jackjjackson · 61-69, M

Younger than those dem alzheimer patients. @Khenpal1

Khenpal1 · M

@jackjjackson true , but its still bullocks what he is doing.

jackjjackson · 61-69, M

I disagree. His behavior is bad. His policy and achievements are terrific. @Khenpal1

SW-User

Because of how things have been going for the last 3 now 4 years, probably not. Positive opinion of someone can change overtime for plenty of reasons. When people who voted for that person doesn’t get what they want, when said person does something that is off putting, when said person doesn’t practice what they preach, etc.

PTCdresser57 · 61-69, M

I don't think he will if everyone no matter your party affiliation would go out and read everything that Trump is doing that is bad for Americans. Also if the truth comes out in the Senate instead of dismissing all the docs and witnesses that have been withheld by Trump and his lawyers then he definitely won't win. But if ppl don't go and investigate on their own or if the Senate doesn't do their job...he will then win. Things I know..he hasn't kept his campaign promises and he isn't the great negotiator he claims to be.

questionWeaver

@PTCdresser57

I love the guy ... and think he has done great

PTCdresser57 · 61-69, M

questionWeaver..that is your right.

questionWeaver

@PTCdresser57 yeppers... just love that guy!

Pinkstarburst

I honestly don't even care. I am more interested in my state candidates and elections.

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Pinkstarburst

@jackjjackson Arkansas. Good ol' boy club USA

jackjjackson · 61-69, M

Why not move? @Pinkstarburst

Peapod · 61-69, F

@Pinkstarburst

[quote]I honestly don't even care. I am more interested in my state candidates and elections.[/quote]

For the first time ever, our township and county went all blue!! The Republican hold here seem inpentratable. But enough people here dislike and mistrust Trump that much and came out and voted in droves. I never thought it could happen here, so for all those that think Trump has a sealed deal aren't using their heads.

DudeistPriest · M

Couldn't agree more. According to Allan Lichtman he'll likely win the 2020 election, so long as he doesn't screw up too badly...
[youtube=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OU2Pudyrp4U]

Whiterosesociety

@DudeistPriest oh and killing migrant babies and sovereign nationals in hated countries and destroying justice for a hundred years into the future and hard won environmental protections everywhere...

sounds like shitty porn to me.

to others its good porn, good to sleep with and marry. Tasty.

DudeistPriest · M

@Whiterosesociety Sweetnessandshadows, I am a Mexican-American who's lived near the border with Mexico for decades and in all that time there's been no reports of "killing migrant babies and sovereign nationals".

Can you tell us, from your extensive knowledge from way over at your non-border location and link to the source of your findings? Or did you manufacture that statistic from CNN?

Oh and thanks for the upvote a while back, that was so sweet! Thanks again Sweetnessandshadows, hope to hear from you soon!

questionWeaver

Spot on ... 32 states for sure ... a potential to take 42

42 if Biden runs

Nimbus · M

@questionWeaver Why the Biden difference?

questionWeaver

@Nimbus

Sleepy Joe has a negative/zero appeal in 4 key states ... NM, MN, OR and CO .. Joe is a big urban guy with no ability to rally rural populations without cities

And his negatives in NH, NC and ME ... essentially hand those to Trump

Where he is strong ... they do not need votes (CA,NY,DE,NJ,MA, MD)

The net effect is the people in those 7 more states could power them to Trump ... implying it is likely Trump keeps his prize 3 ... taking him to a smashing 42 states ... without concern for the popular vote

Nimbus · M

@questionWeaver K, got it.

Similar here with Doris winning.
No real opposition.

luckranger71 · 51-55, M

No. It will be close, but I don’t think he’ll win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania again.

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MartinII · 70-79, M

@sunsporter1649 Up to a point, yes, and still blue collar workers didn’t turn out for her.

sunsporter1649 · 70-79, M

@MartinII Pass around whatever you are smoking

DudeistPriest · M

@sunsporter1649

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Graylight · 51-55, F

Trump is the incumbent, true, but you can hardly rely on precedent for this case. His performance in the White House and as a human being is unparalleled and brings to the Forefront issues that were not dealt with in previous elections. I would say all predictions pretty much go right out the window.

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Graylight · 51-55, F

@sunsporter1649 Yeah, I'm hiding in shame.

sunsporter1649 · 70-79, M

@Graylight You should be

Graylight · 51-55, F

@sunsporter1649 You know, you can only be one of two things: a troll or a hacker. Either way, you're not worth time or energy.

Smart23 · 51-55, F

I hope not, but he probably will. I am not a Democrat or a Republican, I vote for the person not the party that they represent.

whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

@Smart23 As long as you vote and make your voice heard.

Human1000 · M

So u don’t give a fuck about policy, just who charms you. Gross.@Smart23

Smart23 · 51-55, F

@Human1000 Trump doesn't follow the policies, he makes up his own rules and that's all he does, he ignores the constitution and the bill of rights.

JohnOinger · 41-45, M

yes

xixgun · M

I'd say so, but then, people have done some moronic boneheaded things before; so I'll just say, "I hope so".

Nimbus · M

@xixgun That's fair.

MistyCee

I see all that, and I see how powerful Trump's war on principles is, but I still naively think that not all of the Americans who support him are truly as deplorable as he is.

Many believe only some of his lies, and others are probably still sure that their "409ks" are with protecting from the boogeymen he threatens then with.

Hell, he's the one fighting for pre-existing condition coverage despite what all those egghead people who can actually read say.

Jeffrey53 · 51-55, M

Don’t like politics so I don’t care who is elected not going to change my life.

Whiterosesociety

Not true. He won't win again,

Not really anyway...I mean our memories are pretty short.

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sunsporter1649 · 70-79, M

@IstillmissEP And I have a bridge I want to sell you

MarmeeMarch · M

@sunsporter1649 [image deleted]

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SW-User

I predict that he will be reelected

Khenpal1 · M

He will win bigly with 200 000 more death from flue , bankrupt banks and more unemployment 😂

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Khenpal1 · M

@sunsporter1649 well, I don't think he can anything to makes things better anytime soon.

sunsporter1649 · 70-79, M

@Khenpal1 ?

DudeistPriest · M

@Khenpal1 Is 'bigly' a word?

GJOFJ3 · 61-69, M

Agree

MarmeeMarch · M

He will win by the landiest of landslides

Khenpal1 · M

Neopalpa donaldtrumpi.😂

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Smart23 · 51-55, F

@Stereoguy I don't watch CNN or fake news. I listen to Trump's speeches, words that come right out of his mouth and then I do research about his speeches and his fact checker.

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therighttothink50 · 56-60, M

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/01/report-over-50-percent-of-attendees-at-trumps-wisconsin-rally-werent-republicans/

jackjjackson · 61-69, M

Won’t see that on CNN. @therighttothink50

Harriet03 · 41-45, F

[image deleted]

itsoeasy · 56-60, M

it depends who the democrats pick

Moonpenny · F

Unfortunately for the world, yes 🥺

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