Donald Trump will win reelection. Do you agree ... ?

[quote]The United States
Donald Trump will win reelection (55 percent)
This is a close one, but I think the balance of evidence favors a Trump reelection. The basics are simple: Decades of political science work on election forecasting imply that presidents running for reelection enjoy an incumbency advantage, that a strong economy helps the incumbent’s party, and that high levels of US military fatalities hurt the incumbent’s party.

In short: Trump is the incumbent, the economy is growing while unemployment stays very low, and despite some close calls, Trump hasn’t started new wars or expanded existing ones in ways that kill a lot of US service members. Combine that with Trump’s geographic advantage over the Democratic nominee in the Electoral College, and I think he has a better than even chance of winning.

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[b]https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/1/13/21055740/trump-reelection-biden-nomination-brexit-2020-predictions[/b]

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wohgspuj9e

No. Most people don't like him.

1-25 of 31

questionWeaver

@wohgspuj9e enough people in just the right states like him alot ... and that will be good enough to get him elected again ... possibly in a sweep

wohgspuj9e

@questionWeaver no I don't think so.

questionWeaver

@wohgspuj9e current polls have him ahead and projected to win 30 states easily ... states he won before ... historically people revote for incumbents and the numbers show that

That is 60% of the states.

Four more are so likely he will win, that Democrats are committing few resources there ... that gets him to 68% of the states

In 4 more states, he was a whisker away from winning those ... they benefit, as the poster noted ... from the vacuum of incumbency

That would get him to 76%
He will lose California and New York by larger margins than before ... but those two add nothing to the Democrat state totals

There are 4 more states at risk of turning Trump, if the candidate is weak and Trump has time to visit ... that would get him to 84% ... typically considered a sweep

No polls exist that counter this projection

cherokeepatti · 61-69, F

@wohgspuj9e How come then every rally he has there are tens of thousands filling the venue and many thousands more standing outside in all kinds of weather watching his speech on the big screens outdoors?Everywhere he goes he gets more and more people attending. So nobody likes him?

cherokeepatti · 61-69, F

@cherokeepatti And they’ll stand in line for up to 24 hours before the rally begins in freezing weather. Nobody likes him, yeah right.

wohgspuj9e

@cherokeepatti lots of stupid people I guess. Doesn't mean he will win.

cherokeepatti · 61-69, F

@wohgspuj9e Sounds like you are contradicting yourself.

wohgspuj9e

@cherokeepatti lots of people don't mean majority.

cherokeepatti · 61-69, F

@wohgspuj9e Well there you go. And it makes a difference who you surround yourself with to make you think that way.

cherokeepatti · 61-69, F

@wohgspuj9e But re-read what you wrote....you said “MOST people don’t like him.”

wohgspuj9e

@cherokeepattimaybe its why you like him because you hang out with people instead of making up your own mind.

cherokeepatti · 61-69, F

@wohgspuj9e No I like him for what he stands for. I’ve lived long enough to see the destruction of this nation from the time I was young till now. It’s time to reverse that.

wohgspuj9e

@cherokeepatti so? most people that are voters don't like him.

cherokeepatti · 61-69, F

@wohgspuj9e You might want to rethink that statement after the election.

wohgspuj9e

@cherokeepatti you like creepy guys? ok.

therighttothink50 · 56-60, M

@cherokeepatti why are you exchanging lines with a programmed leftist bot? this is how the left works, they rely on algorithims and bots to peddle a leftist totalitarian police state.