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Donald Trump will win reelection. Do you agree ... ?

[quote]The United States
Donald Trump will win reelection (55 percent)
This is a close one, but I think the balance of evidence favors a Trump reelection. The basics are simple: Decades of political science work on election forecasting imply that presidents running for reelection enjoy an incumbency advantage, that a strong economy helps the incumbent’s party, and that high levels of US military fatalities hurt the incumbent’s party.

In short: Trump is the incumbent, the economy is growing while unemployment stays very low, and despite some close calls, Trump hasn’t started new wars or expanded existing ones in ways that kill a lot of US service members. Combine that with Trump’s geographic advantage over the Democratic nominee in the Electoral College, and I think he has a better than even chance of winning.

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[b]https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/1/13/21055740/trump-reelection-biden-nomination-brexit-2020-predictions[/b]
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wanderingelf · 61-69, M
Under normal circumstances I'd tend to agree, but these circumstances, and certainly this man, are not normal. Donald Trump is an aberration for any civilized nation, even if (God forbid!) he manages to carry 50% of the vote. While the economic numbers and job creation appear to be very strong at a glance, a deeper look reveals an ever widening income discrepancy, and a taxation structure that is now perilously close to being regressive. I think this election will swing on voter turnout - - higher turnout always favors Democrats, as most Americans actually are Democrats. In 2020, we have a strong mobilizing factor at play: namely, that far more Americans loathe Donald Trump than do not. What's more, they equally loathe the conservative Republicans who enable and protect him. It's not over till it's over, so the hopes of Democrats rest upon huge voter turnout in 2020.
Nimbus · M
@wanderingelf Good points but do the Democrats have a credible opponent?
Mbingh01 · 61-69, F
@wanderingelf wrong.
wanderingelf · 61-69, M
@Nimbus Ha! The million dollar question at the moment, but I have seen many cars driving around where I live (Pennsylvania) with bumper stickers that say "Any Functioning Adult for 2020". I'm hopeful. And Joe Biden can win if he'll just keep his foot out of his mouth!
Nimbus · M
@wanderingelf :)

We shall see :)
wanderingelf · 61-69, M
Khenpal1 · M
@wanderingelf hard to say , if nothing outside US happens he has good chances. If any major country starts something , you are so fucked with Trump as he is brainless on long term.
@wanderingelf I am sorry to have to agree.
TexChik · F
@wanderingelf no one wants socialism , totalitarianism , sky high taxes, a destroyed economy, rampant immigration , and ultimately civil war over gun rights . The democrats are completely corrupt . No one is watching their debates , no one attends their rallies ... no one seriously wants the shovel full of crap they offer
wanderingelf · 61-69, M
@TexChik If Fox News and Breitbart is where you get your information, sure. Sky high taxes, are you kidding me? The only people the Repub's and Trump have saved from sky high taxes are corporations and billionaires. "Rampant immigration" - - would you like some fries with your paranoia? So you have no problem with tearing toddlers out of their parents' arms and holding them indefinitely in unsafe & unclean conditions, where dozens have already died? Just trying to verify which team you're on. Oh never mind...."civil war over gun rights" and the "Democrats are completely corrupt" tells me all I need to know. Do you have to drink that Kool-Aid every day to keep up your fantasies, or is one dose enough?
TexChik · F
@wanderingelf oh spare me the Lib standard of blaming corporations. Business is in the business of making profits. To do so they provide jobs . Those jobs provide income, some of which is paid to the government via taxation . Raise the taxes too high , corporations cut jobs which decreases tax revenue . Raise taxes again and corporations leave and take their jobs with them. Under Obama over 96 million were out of the work force . Under Trump unemployment is at a 50 year low , with millions more jobs available than there are people to work them. Lib tax policies are so destructive Californians are making a mass exodus from that state . Same with New York . When libs in Virginia are passing anti gun laws and then telling people they will be killed if they do not surrender their weapons ... that’s going to lead to an armed and angry mob . When every lib candidate says we should not Be allowed to defend ourselves after a heroic citizen acted to stop a would be mass murderer in a church .., that tells me everything I need to know . Civil war will happen if one of those idiots gets elected . It was just discovered that in Virginia hundreds of thousands of illegals voted ... libs are corrupt . They can’t win a fair election , and oddly enough Trump proved they can’t win a rigged one either . Spare me your BS .
wanderingelf · 61-69, M
@TexChik Mmmmmm Good Kool Aid! Trump great leader! Mmmmm!
@wanderingelf Lets make Trump’s business connections to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard better known, forcing him to continually defend himself the way Clinton dis over her emails.
@wanderingelf couldn't disagree more. The aberration is the left's hatred of Trump. Ramped it up several notches over previous Republicans as the Donald represents a real threat to the leftist power structure, and their acolytes are in full Alinsky mode.

Widening income gap? Regressive tax structure? More people are democrats? Redundant talking points we've heard dozens of times before. You also forgot to call Trump a racist, a liar, a criminal, a Russian asset, a war monger, etc.

Trump will win 2020 easily. The Senate will remain with the GOP. The real question is whether Pelosi will choke on her dentures in a drunken stuper before or after she's ousted as Speaker when the GOP takes control of the House.
wanderingelf · 61-69, M
@BizSuitStacy Based on what? We can spout opposing facts all day. The fact that you even consider this animal an acceptable President tells me all I need to know about you.
@wanderingelf I can say the exact thing back to you, and simply insert the name of the moron leftist presidential candidate you're supporting. Says all any conservative needs to know about you. There.
See how easy it is?
TexChik · F
@BizSuitStacy that lib says that a lot ... I suspect he doesn’t know nearly as much as he says .
@TexChik he's spouting the narrative directly from the lefty playbook.

We see thousands of Trump supporters inside at his rallies, with hundreds more outside hoping to get in. Contrast that with the 10s of people who show up to see Biden blather on, unaware of what state he's in or what decade it is. Or to see Warren drool on herself trying to explain how Medicare for all won't bankrupt the country. Or to see good old Bernie try to convince the country (and is failing) that he's not really a commie.
@BizSuitStacy Gosh, the Democrat candidates are all so awful. Trump will win by a landslide! You might as well not even vote, it's just a waste of time.
TexChik · F
@BizSuitStacy they are insane and dangerous
@LeopoldBloom You're correct across the board on this one, including my vote being a waste of time in WA state. However, I welcome anyone who wants to see what happens when liberalism is allowed to run unopposed, by hanging out on the streets of Seattle. Assuming you don't step in human feces or a used needle, you might get assaulted, robbed, raped. Don't be calling law enforcement to help. They've stopped enforcing laws for vagrancy, public drug use, property crime, etc. Be careful if you have a dog or cat...they disappear. But the homeless say they are delicious!
@TexChik yep! They are immoral at best, and evil at worst.
@BizSuitStacy I live in the deep south, and it's deteriorated here too. Homeless on every street corner, even with panhandling being illegal here.
@LeopoldBloom ah, but the key is where in the deep South? I'm gonna guess that it's a blue city in what perhaps is an otherwise red state.
wanderingelf · 61-69, M
@BizSuitStacy I don't know of any "moron leftist presidents" who have willfully dismantled science-based environmental protection laws, publicly fellated the Russian dictator, exploded the deficit by handing gigantic tax cuts to billionaires and corporations, or committed literal crimes against humanity by stripping children out of their mother's arms. And I am now through attempting to reason with your Neanderthal ass.
@BizSuitStacy Homeless tend to live in cities.

So basically, local government is 100% responsible for the problem? If that’s the case, then the states of CA and NY aren’t to blame, correct? And obviously Nancy Pelosi, being a federal representative, has zero responsibility for homelessness in SF.

If it’s the fault of a specific level of government, you need to be consistent.