How much will Labour win by?

A couple of observations for those interested in the British general election.

First, despite its huge lead, the proportion of opinion poll respondents saying they will vote Labour is only 40% - exactly the same as Labour achieved under Jeremy Corbyn (!) in 2017. Given Starmer's lack of conviction, and the obvious tensions between his centrist stance and some of Labour's left-wing policies, that percentage seems likely to fall, if only a little.

Second, according to Wikipedia, at the beginning of the 2017 campaign the Conservatives had a lead in the opinion polls of 21% - exactly the lead Labour has now. The Conservatives still won in 2017, of course, but only just.

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SunshineGirl · 36-40, F

It is difficult to translate percentages of the vote to percentages of seats in parliament, but Labour should win a comfortable majority. The main differences to 2017 are likely to be the collapse of the Tories' "red wall", their inability to sustain much support in London, and the scandal.surrounding the SNP.

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MartinII · 70-79, M

@Alfred22 Well, I was right that the Labour share of the vote would fall from what the polls were predicting. It actually fell from 40% to 35%, more than I thought possible. But I was wrong to think that that would have any effect on the number of seats won by Labour.

Alfred22

@Alfred22 I didn't really try and afterwards, was not happy. But, I like Labour.

SunshineGirl · 36-40, F

@MartinII The share of votes cast is probably not an accurate reflection of the level of support for each party. I voted Lib Dem to unseat the sitting Tory and the Labour candidate in our constituency was not seriously campaigning. Do I support Lib Dems? . . Not really. Would I have voted that way if they stood a serious chance of forming a government? . . Definitely not. If I had been questioned by a pollster, I would almost certainly have ticked Labour . . that may explain some of the discrepancy.

I reckon the opinion polls give a closer picture of political allegiance than the statistics of the actual election.

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ArtieKat · M

I agree - on balance I think it will be far closer than many to the left of centre hope.

Fairydust · F

Both parties are the same, both work for the WEF!

Illusion of choice. 🤨

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MartinII · 70-79, M

@Fairydust OK, but who or what are they? What does WEF stand for?

jackieash · 26-30

@MartinII World Economic Forum.

MartinII · 70-79, M

@jackieash Thanks.

Nimbus · M

A hung Parliament is the most likely result.
No one wins, including the electorate.

ffony · M

@Nimbus An elected parliament is an elected pariament, "hung" or not. There's nothing about democracy that demands any inbuilt or potential party majority. There isn't even a need for political parties.

Parliament:
1. A representative body having supreme legislative powers within a state or multinational organization.
2. In the United Kingdom, its national legislature, made up of the House of Lords and the House of Commons.
3. A parleying; a discussion; a conference. [/i]

KarenisKenziesmum · 51-55, F

I don't mind, as long as they do win. I'll be glad to see the back of the Tories.

AndysLoft · 56-60, M

I haven't put myself forward yet so I am expecting me to win by a landslide.

msros · F

First throw Rishi Rich out

SW-User

@msros He is a very nasty piece of work.

He is going to use Penny Mordant next week to demolish Angela Raynam and gain support.

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SW-User

Depends how much Richi lies

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