How much will Labour win by?

A couple of observations for those interested in the British general election.

First, despite its huge lead, the proportion of opinion poll respondents saying they will vote Labour is only 40% - exactly the same as Labour achieved under Jeremy Corbyn (!) in 2017. Given Starmer's lack of conviction, and the obvious tensions between his centrist stance and some of Labour's left-wing policies, that percentage seems likely to fall, if only a little.

Second, according to Wikipedia, at the beginning of the 2017 campaign the Conservatives had a lead in the opinion polls of 21% - exactly the lead Labour has now. The Conservatives still won in 2017, of course, but only just.

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SunshineGirl · 36-40, F

It is difficult to translate percentages of the vote to percentages of seats in parliament, but Labour should win a comfortable majority. The main differences to 2017 are likely to be the collapse of the Tories' "red wall", their inability to sustain much support in London, and the scandal.surrounding the SNP.

MartinII · 70-79, M

@SunshineGirl I agree generally, but with a few wrinkles. I think the red wall is difficult to read. Obviously traditional Labour voters who voted Conservative last time are fed up with the Tories, and rightly so. But is the Starmer Labour Party any more attractive to them than the Corbyn version? I doubt it. It's generally assumed that a strong Reform vote is bad for the Conservatives, and that's probably right. But I think Reform will take votes from Labour as well.

As to London, the Conservatives did pretty well in the mayoral election, given the inbuilt Labour majority and a very weak candidate. Inner London is a no-go area for the Tories, but I think Tory seats in the outer suburbs will be pretty solid. Finally, though it's a small point, one or two inner city Labour seats in London and elsewhere may be at risk because of Starmer's support for Israel - one of the few issues on which, to his credit, he has taken a principled stance.

Anyway, thanks for your comment.

Alfred22

@MartinII How accurate were your predictions above?

MartinII · 70-79, M

@Alfred22 Well, I was right that the Labour share of the vote would fall from what the polls were predicting. It actually fell from 40% to 35%, more than I thought possible. But I was wrong to think that that would have any effect on the number of seats won by Labour.

Alfred22

@Alfred22 I didn't really try and afterwards, was not happy. But, I like Labour.

SunshineGirl · 36-40, F

@MartinII The share of votes cast is probably not an accurate reflection of the level of support for each party. I voted Lib Dem to unseat the sitting Tory and the Labour candidate in our constituency was not seriously campaigning. Do I support Lib Dems? . . Not really. Would I have voted that way if they stood a serious chance of forming a government? . . Definitely not. If I had been questioned by a pollster, I would almost certainly have ticked Labour . . that may explain some of the discrepancy.

I reckon the opinion polls give a closer picture of political allegiance than the statistics of the actual election.