How much will Labour win by?

A couple of observations for those interested in the British general election.

First, despite its huge lead, the proportion of opinion poll respondents saying they will vote Labour is only 40% - exactly the same as Labour achieved under Jeremy Corbyn (!) in 2017. Given Starmer's lack of conviction, and the obvious tensions between his centrist stance and some of Labour's left-wing policies, that percentage seems likely to fall, if only a little.

Second, according to Wikipedia, at the beginning of the 2017 campaign the Conservatives had a lead in the opinion polls of 21% - exactly the lead Labour has now. The Conservatives still won in 2017, of course, but only just.

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Nimbus · M

A hung Parliament is the most likely result.
No one wins, including the electorate.

ffony · M

@Nimbus An elected parliament is an elected pariament, "hung" or not. There's nothing about democracy that demands any inbuilt or potential party majority. There isn't even a need for political parties.

Parliament:
1. A representative body having supreme legislative powers within a state or multinational organization.
2. In the United Kingdom, its national legislature, made up of the House of Lords and the House of Commons.
3. A parleying; a discussion; a conference. [/i]