How much will Labour win by?
A couple of observations for those interested in the British general election.
First, despite its huge lead, the proportion of opinion poll respondents saying they will vote Labour is only 40% - exactly the same as Labour achieved under Jeremy Corbyn (!) in 2017. Given Starmer's lack of conviction, and the obvious tensions between his centrist stance and some of Labour's left-wing policies, that percentage seems likely to fall, if only a little.
Second, according to Wikipedia, at the beginning of the 2017 campaign the Conservatives had a lead in the opinion polls of 21% - exactly the lead Labour has now. The Conservatives still won in 2017, of course, but only just.
First, despite its huge lead, the proportion of opinion poll respondents saying they will vote Labour is only 40% - exactly the same as Labour achieved under Jeremy Corbyn (!) in 2017. Given Starmer's lack of conviction, and the obvious tensions between his centrist stance and some of Labour's left-wing policies, that percentage seems likely to fall, if only a little.
Second, according to Wikipedia, at the beginning of the 2017 campaign the Conservatives had a lead in the opinion polls of 21% - exactly the lead Labour has now. The Conservatives still won in 2017, of course, but only just.
