If The 538 Presidential Poll....

@SW-User Did you do him yet?🤣

@SW-User Lichtman uses fundamentals that have nothing to do with polling. He was wrong in 2016 only because we're stuck with the Electoral College. The same thing could happen this year. Silver uses aggregates of polls and some fundamentals to come up with what basically amounts to a weather report.

Electoral-vote.com only uses state-level polls, averaging the ones for the past week. They consider any difference of 4% or less to be within the margin of error. As of today, they have Harris at 257, Trump at 230, with 51 tied. They've been fairly accurate. Their thinking is that errors in any one poll will cancel out if several are used. Generally, swing states are polled often, especially as the election approaches, so they have a lot to work with. They do have wonky results sometimes, like right now they have Indiana as "barely Republican" based on a poll in April that had Trump only 4 points ahead of Biden. If anyone bothers to poll Indiana again, presumably Trump and Harris will be further apart and the state will show as the solid Republican one it should be.

@LeopoldBloom You turned me on to electoral-vote.com a few years ago, and I read it every day without fail. V and Z are great!

@jehova 2016 is why the electoral college exists

@NativePortlander1970 he lost. Therefore, it exists so the obvious loser still gets the position. Thats not democracy thats bs, but reality. Welcome to america stuck in the late 1700s adjusting for the representation of slaveholders. Slavery is over but that institution isnt.

@bookerdana His model also predicts the winner of the popular vote, not the Electoral College, so be careful in putting too much confidence in his prediction.

@windinhishair I'm not confident but I am voting

@bookerdana We all need to vote as if our lives depend on it. Because they do.

@MoveAlong In 2016 pollsters overwhelmingly said Killary would landslide, we all know what happened.

@NativePortlander1970 she won but not by landslide so like youve indicated the popular vote doesnt mean shit (translation much of anything).

@Tastyfrzz Some people are "Muricans"😷

@jehova 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

@NativePortlander1970 A Republican thinking they defend it after January 6th! 🤣🤣🤣🤣

@NativePortlander1970



And when asked to present evidence in over 60 lawsuits in federal court regarding their “massive evidence of widespread voter fraud” Republican lawyers came up with goose eggs, and this in front of a number of judges Trump himself appointed. Turns out that sworn officers of the court can’t lie about having evidence when they have no evidence.

@SW-User Is that really your take from that debate? Or is that what they pay you fo say??😷

@whowasthatmaskedman If you had an ounce of intelligence you might wonder why "they",whoever "they are, might have the slightest interest in my opinion. It's my observation, as i clearly stated.

@SW-User I accept that it is your opinion, to which you have every right. I just wanted to know if you arrived and it independently . Or if you had the excuse of being paid to hold it..😷

@JonLosAngeles66 You would think so, but the problem is that each pollster makes adjustments to the actual polling, and each pollster does this differently, so the results can be averaged but the different methodologies make if impossible to accurately determine the total margin of error.

@LeopoldBloom And a nation divided against itself cannot stand. So it will be displaced by one that isnt paralysed.😷

@whowasthatmaskedman It wasn't that long ago that we weren't as divided as we are now. My hope is that once Trump is out of the picture, there will be a realignment and we won't see as much division. One thing that would help would be to get rid of partisan gerrymanders. Right now, maybe 20 House districts are even competitive, and it may not be that many.

@LeopoldBloom I hope you are right. But I fear you are not. Trump exploited the fracturing of America and picked the easiest marks to exploit. Social pressure and fear have been pushed to control the behaviour of Americans since McCarthy. And its been coOpted by Big Money and the politicians they bought to keep Americans from uniting against the exploitation from within. It sounds like a conspracy and maybe thats what it is.. Business gets away with murder quite literally, and gets a tax break in doing it..😷

@akindheart 538 uses an average of many different polls. If you differ from other MAGAs and are curious about things you can see how 538 arrives at their numbers here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-polling-averages-work/

@MasterLee to be fair trump doesnt actually have any money.

@jehova oh gee wiz wally

@MasterLee also fdr made industries public.