If The 538 Presidential Poll....

@whowasthatmaskedman It typically swings in the direction of the presidential victor, because that is who people are motivated to turn out. There was a descrepency in the last presidential election with that because the Democrats cheated. Trump is leading in so many swing states it is unlikely they can cheat in every place this time. So most likely Repubkicans keep the house, and honestly uncertain about the Senate because I just haven't been following them, but I would blindly expect it to shift more to the right.

But we always have weird democrats and republicans being elected, so you really can't predict a near 50-50 body like the senate to consistently be left or right, it's the oddballs in such situations who get to decide stuff. So I'm waiting till the new congress gets sworn in either way before deciding who actually won the senate.

@Dignaga You had me until "Democrats cheated"😷

@whowasthatmaskedman They did it twice. Once to Trump, then to Biden.

@Dignaga OK. I will address this just once and then leave you to ramble.. The US voting system is corrupted in so many ways that would be corrupted in other countries as to be irrelevant. The loading and fracturing of electoral boundaries. The variable availability of voting facilities. The non standard vetting and purging of electoral rolls. And finally the archaic electoral college system. Specifically considering that those charges and investigations have usually swung to show those individal "cheats" were more often Republican than Democrat. And that in no case was it enough to affect the voting outcome, I think we should all get over it.. Just admit the whole idea that America was ever meant to be a Democracy was a farce and move on.😷

@Dignaga Not only is there no evidence that the Democrats cheated, even your orange lord and savior has admitted that he lost. The proof that there was no cheating in 2020 is that no one contested the Republicans who won on the same ballots that the president was on. If you're going to claim that the presidential vote was altered, you have to apply that same logic to Senators, Governors, and Congressmen.

The Senate map this year is terrible for the Democrats. With Joe Manchin not running, West Virginia will revert to the Republicans, requiring Tester to win in Montana, which isn't looking good right now. Florida and Texas are long shots. The Democrats are more favored to win the House. Harris will win the popular vote, but the actual winner will depend on fewer than 100,000 votes in a few key states. Regardless of who wins or which party controls Congress, neither side will have a mandate. We might as well just roll the dice at this point. Of course, that won't stop people from framing the election results as the American people affirming or rejecting something significant. The country will remain seriously divided for a long time.

@LeopoldBloom And a nation divided against itself cannot stand. So it will be displaced by one that isnt paralysed.😷

@whowasthatmaskedman It wasn't that long ago that we weren't as divided as we are now. My hope is that once Trump is out of the picture, there will be a realignment and we won't see as much division. One thing that would help would be to get rid of partisan gerrymanders. Right now, maybe 20 House districts are even competitive, and it may not be that many.

@LeopoldBloom I hope you are right. But I fear you are not. Trump exploited the fracturing of America and picked the easiest marks to exploit. Social pressure and fear have been pushed to control the behaviour of Americans since McCarthy. And its been coOpted by Big Money and the politicians they bought to keep Americans from uniting against the exploitation from within. It sounds like a conspracy and maybe thats what it is.. Business gets away with murder quite literally, and gets a tax break in doing it..😷