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Trump and Biden still well within the margin of error in swing states

President Joe Biden is just 2 percentage points away from former President Donald Trump among seven swing states recently polled, despite the president's dismal debate performance last week.

In a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll conducted from July 1 to 5, Trump led Biden by only 2 percentage points (47 to 45 percent) among all the swing states polled—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Across all seven swing states, 4,902 registered voters were polled and there was a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage points.

Bloomberg News reported that the 2 percentage point gap between Trump and Biden is the smallest it's been since they began this type of polling in October 2023.

Meanwhile, when looking at each state individually, Biden was ahead of Trump in Michigan by 5 percentage points (48 to 43 percent) and Wisconsin by 3 points (47 to 44 percent). Meanwhile, Trump led Biden in Georgia by 1 percentage point (47 to 46 percent), Nevada by 3 points (48 to 45 percent), Pennsylvania by 7 points (51 to 44 percent), Arizona by 3 points (48 to 45 percent) and North Carolina by 3 points (46 to 43 percent).

There were 694 registered voters polled in Michigan, 695 in Wisconsin, 790 in Georgia, 452 in Nevada, 794 in Pennsylvania, 781 in Arizona and 696 in North Carolina. The margin of error for Georgia and Pennsylvania was plus or minus 3 percentage points; Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin was plus or minus 4 percentage points and Nevada was plus or minus 5 percentage points.

samueltyler2 · 80-89, M
I still shocks me that comparing anything about the two, that anyone would prefer trump!
samueltyler2 · 80-89, M
@LeopoldBloom I believe Obama was among our better presidents, but I believe his election release subvert racism, that culminated in many murders, often by police, that then ignited anger in the liberal camp and more overt racism on the right. Also trump manages to portray himself as the innocent victim of government over action. Those who felt the world was leaving them on the dust accepted him.as their protector and savior, totally unaware that the policies set by his administration did exactly the opposite. If democracy prevails, the history books, if honest, will be interesting. Unfortunately historians may sweeten everything, they was they did the civil war, and it might not look as bad.

I am really more worried by the damages being caused daily by SCOTUS. Conservatives, on this case the Republicans have long complained that the courts were acting in legislative efforts and being too active. No court has ever done as much active mettling in as short a period of time as the current SCOTUS.
@samueltyler2 Historians will be writing about Trump and "what happened?" for centuries.
samueltyler2 · 80-89, M
@LeopoldBloom if they are allowed to!
jehova · 31-35, M
Yes and both should be disqualified for several reasons.
jehova · 31-35, M
@samueltyler2 i know bc we only apply law to those under retirement age. Everyone older gets "grandfathered in" revoluion is likely the only appropriate fix. And thats not a good idea either.
samueltyler2 · 80-89, M
@jehova lol I wish I were above he law!
jehova · 31-35, M
@samueltyler2 right and then they wonder why suicide gun violence and crime are so high?! I want to believe the change is coming but corrona was supposed to wipe out the elderly to make way for the next generation. Instead we have this. . .
Theyitis · 36-40, M
Those aren’t the only swing states anymore, Trump has also put Minnesota, Virginia, New Hampshire, and New Mexico in play.
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@whowasthatmaskedman I agree. Trump shouldn't be polling above 20%. But there are still 15-20% undecided or third party voters, and a substantial number of those will move to either Trump or Biden.
whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M
@LeopoldBloom Then my earlier comment stands..😷
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@MarmeeMarch There was no "influence peddling." Hunter capitalized on his father's name to get a high-paying job he wasn't qualified for. And there's no evidence that Joe Biden profited from any of this. We learned that when Hunter had him on the phone with his business associates, they didn't discuss policy and often Biden wasn't even aware of who the other people were. Not because he's senile but because Hunter didn't bother to tell him since the point was for the other people on the line to know Biden was there, not the other way around.

The blatant corruption shielding Trump from accountability will do lasting damage to the legal system. The Roberts court will go down in history as the Taney court of the 21st century.
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@MarmeeMarch They want someone who will beat Trump and they don't think Biden can do it. I want that too but at this point in the process, if Biden can't win, no other Democrat can either. There's no time to ramp up a campaign from zero and none of the other prospective candidates besides Harris would have access to Biden's campaign funds.

I also don't think any of them, including Harris, want to potentially tank their career by losing to Trump. If someone is going to do that, it should be Biden. That leaves the field open for 2028 which is what all of them were planning on anyway.

There's still a lot that could happen. We won't see the DC or FL trials, but after the SCOTUS immunity ruling, Chutkan will be holding hearings right before the election, reminding everyone of what Trump is accused of. His sentencing in the NY trial has now been postponed to September, again closer to the election, leaving less time for people to forget about it.

As they say, a week is a long time in politics.

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