Trump and Biden still well within the margin of error in swing states

President Joe Biden is just 2 percentage points away from former President Donald Trump among seven swing states recently polled, despite the president's dismal debate performance last week.

In a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll conducted from July 1 to 5, Trump led Biden by only 2 percentage points (47 to 45 percent) among all the swing states polled—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Across all seven swing states, 4,902 registered voters were polled and there was a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage points.

Bloomberg News reported that the 2 percentage point gap between Trump and Biden is the smallest it's been since they began this type of polling in October 2023.

Meanwhile, when looking at each state individually, Biden was ahead of Trump in Michigan by 5 percentage points (48 to 43 percent) and Wisconsin by 3 points (47 to 44 percent). Meanwhile, Trump led Biden in Georgia by 1 percentage point (47 to 46 percent), Nevada by 3 points (48 to 45 percent), Pennsylvania by 7 points (51 to 44 percent), Arizona by 3 points (48 to 45 percent) and North Carolina by 3 points (46 to 43 percent).

There were 694 registered voters polled in Michigan, 695 in Wisconsin, 790 in Georgia, 452 in Nevada, 794 in Pennsylvania, 781 in Arizona and 696 in North Carolina. The margin of error for Georgia and Pennsylvania was plus or minus 3 percentage points; Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin was plus or minus 4 percentage points and Nevada was plus or minus 5 percentage points.

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-bad-news-swing-states-poll-despite-joe-biden-debate-performance-1921852

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samueltyler2 · 80-89, M

I still shocks me that comparing anything about the two, that anyone would prefer trump!

LeopoldBloom · M

@samueltyler2 If you'd have asked me in 2014 how a candidate like Trump would have done, I would have said that he'd be lucky to get 10% of the Republican vote. Part of the failure to defeat him in 2016 was the expectation that he would finally do something to alienate Republican voters. So the other Republican candidates didn't go after him, in the hope that they would be able to take over his supporters when Trump's support "inevitably" collapsed. And then when he got the nomination, everyone assumed he couldn't possibly win.

It turns out that he appeals to a primal desire in his followers, and nothing he does will cause them to turn against him. The rest of his support is from a "throw the bums out" mentality that just wants a change from what we have now.

samueltyler2 · 80-89, M

@LeopoldBloom I believe Obama was among our better presidents, but I believe his election release subvert racism, that culminated in many murders, often by police, that then ignited anger in the liberal camp and more overt racism on the right. Also trump manages to portray himself as the innocent victim of government over action. Those who felt the world was leaving them on the dust accepted him.as their protector and savior, totally unaware that the policies set by his administration did exactly the opposite. If democracy prevails, the history books, if honest, will be interesting. Unfortunately historians may sweeten everything, they was they did the civil war, and it might not look as bad.

I am really more worried by the damages being caused daily by SCOTUS. Conservatives, on this case the Republicans have long complained that the courts were acting in legislative efforts and being too active. No court has ever done as much active mettling in as short a period of time as the current SCOTUS.

LeopoldBloom · M

@samueltyler2 Historians will be writing about Trump and "what happened?" for centuries.

samueltyler2 · 80-89, M

@LeopoldBloom if they are allowed to!

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LeopoldBloom · M

@NoThanksLeon Every historian is "sick of liberals?" I guess you've never heard of Heather Cox Richardson.