Trump and Biden still well within the margin of error in swing states

President Joe Biden is just 2 percentage points away from former President Donald Trump among seven swing states recently polled, despite the president's dismal debate performance last week.

In a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll conducted from July 1 to 5, Trump led Biden by only 2 percentage points (47 to 45 percent) among all the swing states polled—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Across all seven swing states, 4,902 registered voters were polled and there was a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage points.

Bloomberg News reported that the 2 percentage point gap between Trump and Biden is the smallest it's been since they began this type of polling in October 2023.

Meanwhile, when looking at each state individually, Biden was ahead of Trump in Michigan by 5 percentage points (48 to 43 percent) and Wisconsin by 3 points (47 to 44 percent). Meanwhile, Trump led Biden in Georgia by 1 percentage point (47 to 46 percent), Nevada by 3 points (48 to 45 percent), Pennsylvania by 7 points (51 to 44 percent), Arizona by 3 points (48 to 45 percent) and North Carolina by 3 points (46 to 43 percent).

There were 694 registered voters polled in Michigan, 695 in Wisconsin, 790 in Georgia, 452 in Nevada, 794 in Pennsylvania, 781 in Arizona and 696 in North Carolina. The margin of error for Georgia and Pennsylvania was plus or minus 3 percentage points; Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin was plus or minus 4 percentage points and Nevada was plus or minus 5 percentage points.

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-bad-news-swing-states-poll-despite-joe-biden-debate-performance-1921852

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jehova · 31-35, M

Biden should be disqualified based on age.

LeopoldBloom · M

@jehova Then so should Trump since he's nearly the same age. But better get busy gathering signatures for a constitutional amendment, because there's no maximum age for the presidency. The only requirements under Article II are:

Natural born citizen of the US
At least 35 years old
Lived in the US at least 14 years

Other requirements:

Not having been impeached and convicted, with the penalty of prohibition against holding future office imposed
Not having engaged in insurrection

Otherwise, no maximum age, nothing about felony convictions, or even being in prison. In 1920, Eugene Debs ran for president from prison and was not disqualified.

jehova · 31-35, M

@LeopoldBloom he (Trump) engaged in insurrection just an fyi.

LeopoldBloom · M

@jehova The Supreme Court ruled that states cannot disqualify Trump from the ballot based on insurrection.

Of the many crimes Trump is charged with, insurrection isn't one of them. That doesn't mean he didn't engage in insurrection, but it looks like he's not going to suffer any consequences for it.

jehova · 31-35, M

@LeopoldBloom ok so that cloause is steadily being nullified for a convicted felon pending sentencing? Thats what im seeing.

LeopoldBloom · M

@jehova The question is whether Jan. 6 was an insurrection or just a riot. The insurrection clause in the 14th amendment was intended to apply to former Confederates. The Civil War was a little more extensive than Jan. 6.

jehova · 31-35, M

@LeopoldBloom trump specifically told them to fight like hell illbeit it was a riot for sure but when they breached the building it became insurrection? Id think so.

LeopoldBloom · M

@jehova Tell the Supreme Court they screwed up and should have let the states disqualify him.

samueltyler2 · 80-89, M

@LeopoldBloom if they believe in states' rights for abortion, etc., they should have allowed it for an election.

LeopoldBloom · M

@samueltyler2 There's no national referendum, but if there was, abortion would be legal as around two-thirds of Americans support it. Many states don't have referenda either. Here in Georgia, we have questions on the ballot, but they're nothing more than suggestions to the legislature.

samueltyler2 · 80-89, M

@LeopoldBloom your comment is a sidestep.

LeopoldBloom · M

@samueltyler2 Republicans don't believe that the states should decide if abortion should be legal. When they say that, they're lying. They only say "let the states decide" because they don't want to appear extreme and are terrified that this issue will destroy them in November. Notice that very little was said about abortion at the GOP convention. Pre-Dobbs, Democrats were afraid to talk about it, now, outside of extremist enclaves like Idaho and Texas, Republicans are just hoping it goes away.

One advantage Harris brings is her full-throated defense of abortion rights. As a practicing Catholic, Biden was clearly uncomfortable with the issue and wouldn't have put it front and center the way she will.

samueltyler2 · 80-89, M

@jehova now that he dropped out, who is the person of the oldest age on record running for president? He displays difficulty keeping on track, forgets people's names and identity. Should he be forced out of the race? 😁

LeopoldBloom · M

@samueltyler2 I've already seen calls for Trump to drop out. Of course, the GOP is in his pocket, so he won't face the same pressure from within his own party that Biden faced.

samueltyler2 · 80-89, M

@LeopoldBloom I heard that his reelection campaign, and the Heritage Foundation is bringing suit against the DNC for changing the top of the ticket! 😁

LeopoldBloom · M

@samueltyler2 I saw that. It won't go anywhere. If Biden had died, would they have sued God?

samueltyler2 · 80-89, M

@LeopoldBloom did you see JD Vance on the road today?

LeopoldBloom · M

@samueltyler2 Or as Trump calls him, JD Wentworth.