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How seriously should we take the polls?

A recent Siena poll has Trump with a comfortable lead in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, and within the margin of error in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Since these are assumed to be the swing states that will decide the election, it looks like Trump has it wrapped up (at least, if the election were held today).

But not so fast. The crosstabs are, to put it mildly, showing numbers that are...unexpected.

Biden is up only 10 points with Latino voters in Arizona. (He won Arizona Latinos by 20 in 2020.)

Biden is losing among Arizona men by 19 points. (He lost Arizona men by 2 points in 2020.)

Biden will get the votes of 29% of Nevada women. (He got 54% of them in 2020.)

Biden will lose Clark County by 12 points. (He won Clark by 9 points in 2020.)

Biden has the votes of 73% of registered Democrats in Georgia. (He got 96% of Georgia Democrats in 2020.)

Biden will get 55% of the Black vote in Georgia. (He got 88% of Black Georgians in 2020.)

Biden has the support of 32% of independent voters in Michigan. (He got 51% of them in 2020.)

Biden is up 22 points among voters 65+ in Michigan. (He won them by 2 points there in 2020.)

Biden is leading among Black voters in Pennsylvania by 38 points. (He won that demographic in Pennsylvania by 84 points in 2020.)

Biden is slated to get 44% of the vote in Philadelphia in 2024. (He got 81% there in 2020.)

Jill Stein is getting 14% of the Black vote in Wisconsin. (She wasn't on the ballot there in 2020, and got 0.3% of the Black vote there in 2016.)

Biden has the votes of 35% of Wisconsinites under the age of 30. (He got 59% of Wisconsinites under the age of 30 in 2020.)

So either this poll is way off, or something really strange is happening with the American electorate. Notice that not all of this is bad news for Biden, but does anyone think he gained 20 points with elderly voters in Michigan since 2020?

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RageAgainstTheMachine · 36-40, M

The 2020 election was "Any individual but Trump." I do not remember any individual who was fully behind Biden's policies in 2020. I believe we will see the same outcome in 2024. Since then, every special election is being won by Democrats; every politician endorsed by Trump has lost. Support and faith in the Republican dominated SCOTUS is at an all time low; Roe vs Wade was the first "poison pill." The House has not passed a single piece of legislation nor can pick a leader almost four years after winning the House of Representatives.

I do not bother with polls when there are no regulations to such polls. Twitter (X) has illustrated when an individual is supported by Russia, the poll will be manipulated by "bots" and/or faux followers to provide a desired outcome. This, I believe, would be the case, even if Elon Musk's human demographic didn't vote at all. Finally, in 2016, the polls had Trump at a 16 to 20 point deficit against Hillary Clinton. History speaks for itself.

LeopoldBloom · M

@RageAgainstTheMachine Most of Trump's successful endorsements were of people who were going to win anyway. The only one he may have helped was J.D. Vance. Of course, Vance was already well-known, but then, so were Dr. Oz and Herschel Walker.

RageAgainstTheMachine · 36-40, M

The irony, JD Vance of all grifters. I shall give them that one appointment as a 'win.' Let us address Doctor Mehmet Öz. Yes, Mehmet Öz. The 'Patriots' and 'We The People' supported a man Mehmet OZ. The encapsulating idea is letter by letter.

AthrillatheHunt · 51-55, M

The media is spinning a riveting narrative , guaranteed to make you keep coming back for updates ( and advertisements from their paid sponsors ).Lol

LeopoldBloom · M

@AthrillatheHunt The media does love a horse race.

AthrillatheHunt · 51-55, M

@LeopoldBloom almost as much as they love that now badly needed ad revenue.
YouTube is killing mainstream media.

windinhishair · 61-69, M

I will pay more attention to the polls once we get into September. Until then, most people haven't thought too much about how they are going to vote, so we need to take all polls with a grain of salt. Hillary was way up on Trump according to the polls in May 2016, and Carter was ahead in the polls in May 1980.

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Harmonium1923 · 51-55, M

@JPWhoo Yes that’s right. Thanks.

LeopoldBloom · M

@windinhishair Although, Hillary did win the popular vote.

windinhishair · 61-69, M

@LeopoldBloom That is true. She beat Trump by 2.8 million votes.

Harmonium1923 · 51-55, M

I’m concerned. Historically the polls have understated support for Trump.

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ElwoodBlues · M

@TryingtoLava On Nov 5, I'm gonna be worried.
On Nov 5, I want everyone to be worried.
Complacency leads to low turnouts, which leads to losses.

SevIsPamprinYouAlways · 56-60, F

@LeopoldBloom Are the polls landline only, or are is there more outreach this time to cel phone users? I can tell you that all 3 of my kids let any # they can’t readily ID roll into their voicemail, and I’m wondering how widespread that behavior may be.

LeopoldBloom · M

@SevIsPamprinYouAlways They use cell phones and the internet (like YouGov). The trick is to correctly weight the response, which is where I think they're screwing up.

Bumbles · 51-55, M

Not enough people don’t want a Trump second term, preferring to waste their vote, or not vote at all.

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Bumbles · 51-55, M

@LeopoldBloom I do so hope you’re right, but have lost so much faith. Just last week! The screaming match in the House, the Speaker of the House attacking the judicial system, and a Supreme Court Justice having openly supporting the January 6 coup. The week before, Cannon refusing to let the document case move forward. The week before that, many on the Supreme Court flirting with making the President (aka Trump) immune from the law. So, yeah, not much faith here…

LeopoldBloom · M

@Bumbles I still have faith in the American people, that enough of them will say no. It's important that the Democrats get a majority in Congress, however, because the new Congress will certify the vote, and I can see the Republicans refusing to because they're afraid of the MAGAs. That would create a Constitutional crisis unlike any we've seen before.

Of course, if Trump actually goes to prison, that pretty much ends it. There will be a huge fight at the GOP convention over replacing him.

Bumbles · 51-55, M

@LeopoldBloom Right, they won’t certify. One more thing to worry about!

I don’t think would ever do time. House arrest at most, which means business as usual.

NoThanksLeon · M

In other polling news, Hillary is still ahead by 23 points. 😂😂😂

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windinhishair · 61-69, M

@NoThanksLeon Is that right? Surely you can prove your bogus claims. Let's see it. You ARE an angry man.

NoThanksLeon · M

@windinhishair

You ARE an angry man.

Wait, did you not accuse me of being female? Make up your...ummmm.... mind. 😂🤣
If I am angry, you sure keep me laughing.

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