How seriously should we take the polls?

A recent Siena poll has Trump with a comfortable lead in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, and within the margin of error in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Since these are assumed to be the swing states that will decide the election, it looks like Trump has it wrapped up (at least, if the election were held today).

But not so fast. The crosstabs are, to put it mildly, showing numbers that are...unexpected.

Biden is up only 10 points with Latino voters in Arizona. (He won Arizona Latinos by 20 in 2020.)

Biden is losing among Arizona men by 19 points. (He lost Arizona men by 2 points in 2020.)

Biden will get the votes of 29% of Nevada women. (He got 54% of them in 2020.)

Biden will lose Clark County by 12 points. (He won Clark by 9 points in 2020.)

Biden has the votes of 73% of registered Democrats in Georgia. (He got 96% of Georgia Democrats in 2020.)

Biden will get 55% of the Black vote in Georgia. (He got 88% of Black Georgians in 2020.)

Biden has the support of 32% of independent voters in Michigan. (He got 51% of them in 2020.)

Biden is up 22 points among voters 65+ in Michigan. (He won them by 2 points there in 2020.)

Biden is leading among Black voters in Pennsylvania by 38 points. (He won that demographic in Pennsylvania by 84 points in 2020.)

Biden is slated to get 44% of the vote in Philadelphia in 2024. (He got 81% there in 2020.)

Jill Stein is getting 14% of the Black vote in Wisconsin. (She wasn't on the ballot there in 2020, and got 0.3% of the Black vote there in 2016.)

Biden has the votes of 35% of Wisconsinites under the age of 30. (He got 59% of Wisconsinites under the age of 30 in 2020.)

So either this poll is way off, or something really strange is happening with the American electorate. Notice that not all of this is bad news for Biden, but does anyone think he gained 20 points with elderly voters in Michigan since 2020?

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windinhishair · 61-69, M

I will pay more attention to the polls once we get into September. Until then, most people haven't thought too much about how they are going to vote, so we need to take all polls with a grain of salt. Hillary was way up on Trump according to the polls in May 2016, and Carter was ahead in the polls in May 1980.

Harmonium1923 · 51-55, M

@windinhishair Is that true about Carter? Wow. He lost 49 states, I think.

windinhishair · 61-69, M

@Harmonium1923 Yes it is. In fact, Carter was leading in polls well into mid-October. From Snopes:

public opinion polls taken in October 1980 showed Democrat Jimmy Carter holding as much as an eight-point lead over Republican Ronald Reagan (a Gallup poll two weeks before the election had Carter at 47% and Reagan at 39%), yet Reagan won a landslide victory in the general election, beating Carter 489 to 49 in electoral votes and by almost 10% in the popular vote.

That was an unusual situation, but as the 2016 election showed, it was not unique.

JPWhoo · 36-40, M

@Harmonium1923 No, Carter lost badly, but it was his former vice president, Mondale, that lost 49 states in 1984. McGovern had pulled the same dubious feat, losing 49 states to President Nixon in 1972.

Harmonium1923 · 51-55, M

@JPWhoo Yes that’s right. Thanks.

LeopoldBloom · M

@windinhishair Although, Hillary did win the popular vote.

windinhishair · 61-69, M

@LeopoldBloom That is true. She beat Trump by 2.8 million votes.