How seriously should we take the polls?

A recent Siena poll has Trump with a comfortable lead in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, and within the margin of error in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Since these are assumed to be the swing states that will decide the election, it looks like Trump has it wrapped up (at least, if the election were held today).

But not so fast. The crosstabs are, to put it mildly, showing numbers that are...unexpected.

Biden is up only 10 points with Latino voters in Arizona. (He won Arizona Latinos by 20 in 2020.)

Biden is losing among Arizona men by 19 points. (He lost Arizona men by 2 points in 2020.)

Biden will get the votes of 29% of Nevada women. (He got 54% of them in 2020.)

Biden will lose Clark County by 12 points. (He won Clark by 9 points in 2020.)

Biden has the votes of 73% of registered Democrats in Georgia. (He got 96% of Georgia Democrats in 2020.)

Biden will get 55% of the Black vote in Georgia. (He got 88% of Black Georgians in 2020.)

Biden has the support of 32% of independent voters in Michigan. (He got 51% of them in 2020.)

Biden is up 22 points among voters 65+ in Michigan. (He won them by 2 points there in 2020.)

Biden is leading among Black voters in Pennsylvania by 38 points. (He won that demographic in Pennsylvania by 84 points in 2020.)

Biden is slated to get 44% of the vote in Philadelphia in 2024. (He got 81% there in 2020.)

Jill Stein is getting 14% of the Black vote in Wisconsin. (She wasn't on the ballot there in 2020, and got 0.3% of the Black vote there in 2016.)

Biden has the votes of 35% of Wisconsinites under the age of 30. (He got 59% of Wisconsinites under the age of 30 in 2020.)

So either this poll is way off, or something really strange is happening with the American electorate. Notice that not all of this is bad news for Biden, but does anyone think he gained 20 points with elderly voters in Michigan since 2020?

This page is a permanent link to the reply below and its nested replies. See all post replies »

RageAgainstTheMachine · 41-45, M

The 2020 election was "Any individual but Trump." I do not remember any individual who was fully behind Biden's policies in 2020. I believe we will see the same outcome in 2024. Since then, every special election is being won by Democrats; every politician endorsed by Trump has lost. Support and faith in the Republican dominated SCOTUS is at an all time low; Roe vs Wade was the first "poison pill." The House has not passed a single piece of legislation nor can pick a leader almost four years after winning the House of Representatives.

I do not bother with polls when there are no regulations to such polls. Twitter (X) has illustrated when an individual is supported by Russia, the poll will be manipulated by "bots" and/or faux followers to provide a desired outcome. This, I believe, would be the case, even if Elon Musk's human demographic didn't vote at all. Finally, in 2016, the polls had Trump at a 16 to 20 point deficit against Hillary Clinton. History speaks for itself.

LeopoldBloom · M

@RageAgainstTheMachine Most of Trump's successful endorsements were of people who were going to win anyway. The only one he may have helped was J.D. Vance. Of course, Vance was already well-known, but then, so were Dr. Oz and Herschel Walker.

RageAgainstTheMachine · 41-45, M

The irony, JD Vance of all grifters. I shall give them that one appointment as a 'win.' Let us address Doctor Mehmet Öz. Yes, Mehmet Öz. The 'Patriots' and 'We The People' supported a man Mehmet OZ. The encapsulating idea is letter by letter.