How seriously should we take the polls?

A recent Siena poll has Trump with a comfortable lead in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, and within the margin of error in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Since these are assumed to be the swing states that will decide the election, it looks like Trump has it wrapped up (at least, if the election were held today).

But not so fast. The crosstabs are, to put it mildly, showing numbers that are...unexpected.

Biden is up only 10 points with Latino voters in Arizona. (He won Arizona Latinos by 20 in 2020.)

Biden is losing among Arizona men by 19 points. (He lost Arizona men by 2 points in 2020.)

Biden will get the votes of 29% of Nevada women. (He got 54% of them in 2020.)

Biden will lose Clark County by 12 points. (He won Clark by 9 points in 2020.)

Biden has the votes of 73% of registered Democrats in Georgia. (He got 96% of Georgia Democrats in 2020.)

Biden will get 55% of the Black vote in Georgia. (He got 88% of Black Georgians in 2020.)

Biden has the support of 32% of independent voters in Michigan. (He got 51% of them in 2020.)

Biden is up 22 points among voters 65+ in Michigan. (He won them by 2 points there in 2020.)

Biden is leading among Black voters in Pennsylvania by 38 points. (He won that demographic in Pennsylvania by 84 points in 2020.)

Biden is slated to get 44% of the vote in Philadelphia in 2024. (He got 81% there in 2020.)

Jill Stein is getting 14% of the Black vote in Wisconsin. (She wasn't on the ballot there in 2020, and got 0.3% of the Black vote there in 2016.)

Biden has the votes of 35% of Wisconsinites under the age of 30. (He got 59% of Wisconsinites under the age of 30 in 2020.)

So either this poll is way off, or something really strange is happening with the American electorate. Notice that not all of this is bad news for Biden, but does anyone think he gained 20 points with elderly voters in Michigan since 2020?

This page is a permanent link to the reply below and its nested replies. See all post replies »

Bumbles · 51-55, M

Not enough people don’t want a Trump second term, preferring to waste their vote, or not vote at all.

LeopoldBloom · M

@Bumbles Most of those people will come around by the election. Third party support can definitely determine the winner in close races, but many of the people supporting RFK Jr. or Jill Stein will vote for one of the major party candidates in the voting booth.

Bumbles · 51-55, M

@LeopoldBloom From your lips…

LeopoldBloom · M

@Bumbles The last third party candidate to gather significant support was Ross Perot, and no one running now has one-tenth the charisma he had.

The libertarian gets around 3%, the Green gets around 1%, and the other idiots will get 1% between them. Unfortunately, that's enough to tip an election in a close state. Most of the attention is on the Greens pulling support from the Democrat, but the Libertarians probably pull more from the Republican. A Libertarian is just a conservative who smokes weed and wants the age of consent lowered.

This comment is hidden. Show Comment

LeopoldBloom · M

@Bumbles Trump has a lot less support than the polls are showing now. In the recent Ohio primary, Trump won with 79% of the vote. Haley got 14.4% and DeSantis got 3.4%. That's 18% of Republicans voting for candidates who dropped out months ago. An exit poll of Haley voters had 8 in 10 saying they would not vote for Trump in the general, with 47% saying they would vote for Biden, and 32% saying they wouldn't vote for either candidate. If that same pattern holds in other states (and Ohio isn't a swing state), even if most of them end up voting for Trump anyway, it won't take many to swing the election to Biden.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and predict that Biden wins by an even bigger margin than in 2020, and wins some states he lost last time.

Bumbles · 51-55, M

@LeopoldBloom I do so hope you’re right, but have lost so much faith. Just last week! The screaming match in the House, the Speaker of the House attacking the judicial system, and a Supreme Court Justice having openly supporting the January 6 coup. The week before, Cannon refusing to let the document case move forward. The week before that, many on the Supreme Court flirting with making the President (aka Trump) immune from the law. So, yeah, not much faith here…

LeopoldBloom · M

@Bumbles I still have faith in the American people, that enough of them will say no. It's important that the Democrats get a majority in Congress, however, because the new Congress will certify the vote, and I can see the Republicans refusing to because they're afraid of the MAGAs. That would create a Constitutional crisis unlike any we've seen before.

Of course, if Trump actually goes to prison, that pretty much ends it. There will be a huge fight at the GOP convention over replacing him.

Bumbles · 51-55, M

@LeopoldBloom Right, they won’t certify. One more thing to worry about!

I don’t think would ever do time. House arrest at most, which means business as usual.