How seriously should we take the polls?

A recent Siena poll has Trump with a comfortable lead in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, and within the margin of error in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Since these are assumed to be the swing states that will decide the election, it looks like Trump has it wrapped up (at least, if the election were held today).

But not so fast. The crosstabs are, to put it mildly, showing numbers that are...unexpected.

Biden is up only 10 points with Latino voters in Arizona. (He won Arizona Latinos by 20 in 2020.)

Biden is losing among Arizona men by 19 points. (He lost Arizona men by 2 points in 2020.)

Biden will get the votes of 29% of Nevada women. (He got 54% of them in 2020.)

Biden will lose Clark County by 12 points. (He won Clark by 9 points in 2020.)

Biden has the votes of 73% of registered Democrats in Georgia. (He got 96% of Georgia Democrats in 2020.)

Biden will get 55% of the Black vote in Georgia. (He got 88% of Black Georgians in 2020.)

Biden has the support of 32% of independent voters in Michigan. (He got 51% of them in 2020.)

Biden is up 22 points among voters 65+ in Michigan. (He won them by 2 points there in 2020.)

Biden is leading among Black voters in Pennsylvania by 38 points. (He won that demographic in Pennsylvania by 84 points in 2020.)

Biden is slated to get 44% of the vote in Philadelphia in 2024. (He got 81% there in 2020.)

Jill Stein is getting 14% of the Black vote in Wisconsin. (She wasn't on the ballot there in 2020, and got 0.3% of the Black vote there in 2016.)

Biden has the votes of 35% of Wisconsinites under the age of 30. (He got 59% of Wisconsinites under the age of 30 in 2020.)

So either this poll is way off, or something really strange is happening with the American electorate. Notice that not all of this is bad news for Biden, but does anyone think he gained 20 points with elderly voters in Michigan since 2020?

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Harmonium1923 · 51-55, M

I’m concerned. Historically the polls have understated support for Trump.

LeopoldBloom · M

@Harmonium1923 I think the polls this year are over correcting for Trump’s support, and not accounting for the role abortion will play. The polls definitely underestimated Democratic votes in the 2022 midterms. I think the current undecided and third party support right now is an expression of general dissatisfaction and most of those people will end up voting for Biden barring some unexpected event.

TryingtoLava

@LeopoldBloom yuppp roe vs wade is gona make him lose :) keep taking credit for it donny cuz its super helpful to your campaign hahah

TryingtoLava

@Harmonium1923 dont worry mister this is gona be a cake walk

ElwoodBlues · M

@TryingtoLava On Nov 5, I'm gonna be worried.
On Nov 5, I want everyone to be worried.
Complacency leads to low turnouts, which leads to losses.

SW-User

@LeopoldBloom Are the polls landline only, or are is there more outreach this time to cel phone users? I can tell you that all 3 of my kids let any # they can’t readily ID roll into their voicemail, and I’m wondering how widespread that behavior may be.

LeopoldBloom · M

@SW-User They use cell phones and the internet (like YouGov). The trick is to correctly weight the response, which is where I think they're screwing up.