Talking with a woman

who had trouble grasping the idea that a 30 percent chance of rain means there's a 70 percent chance that it won't.

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averageguy · 46-50, M

I've had this conversation as well. The person thought it meant that 30% of the local area would get rain

DunningKruger · 61-69, M

@averageguy My friend's thinking was even more basic. In her mind, saying that there was a 30 percent chance of rain was saying that it was going to rain.

CookieCrumbs · F

@DunningKruger @averageguy
They missed the class on % of a whole, or the concept of probability.

Degbeme · 70-79, M

@CookieCrumbs Give me a second. I`ll make up a pie chart. 🤭

BillyMack · 46-50, M

There’s a 10% chance that someone on SW is an actual meteorologist.

PHlover19701 · 56-60, M

Correct. Much greater chance it wont rain. If the person had a 30% chance of winning the lottery or a 70% chance of winning the lottery...I guess theyd take the 30% chance??

Here is what the National Weather Service says is the definition:

https://www.weather.gov/lmk/pops

SoftIceCream

It isn't like that though since the 30% means "in your specific area". It will rain someplace.. it will be 100% in your area if rain begins. How long it rains for is another percent.

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SoftIceCream

@Nightwings That may be true if you live someplace where it always rains, like the East Side of Maui, in the rain forest, but on the West side the sun is still shining.. those clouds floating around though, there is a 30% chance they will get you. Once they do though, then 100% it did rain. You don't get to go backwards. hah

DunningKruger · 61-69, M

@SoftIceCream What the 30 percent is is a probability. Even if there was rain, there was a 30 percent probability that it would rain. It's not a measurement of if it rained or not.

Nightwings · F

@SoftIceCream Yeah like the guy said it's the probability that it will rain (in your area). Obviously once it did rain, it 100% did so, I don't think that needs explanation. 😆

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