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Will Boris Johnson survive his full term?

At the moment, it looks 50/50.

He won a landslide election victory two years ago and emerged from his government's (very bad) early handling of the corona crisis unscathed. However, problems are now mounting up and his personal popularity has collapsed. Despite never convincing, Labour has closed the gaps in the polls and our Prime Minister looks like he is floundering.

I think Johnson can ride out this current crisis if he has a quiet two months but he is probably one more major scandal away from losing his job. Unlike the American system, premiers can be removed by MPs in their own party during a term. The Conservative Party has form in this and Johnson himself only got his job when he led a mid-term rebellion against Theresa May. The Conservatives even got rid of Margaret Thatcher (an iconic figure for them) when they realised that she was set to lose the next election. Johnson has never been liked by the other leaders in his party and owes his success to his appeal with the public, an appeal which is in a state of steady collapse.

I would still predict that the Conservatives are more likely than not to win the next election because Keir Starmer is leading a vacuous opposition. However, it may well be with a different leader than Mr Johnson.

Thoughts?

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Entwistle · 56-60, M

Johnson is a compulsive liar. He is partly the image he likes to portray..e.g. a bumbling buffoon but he is also a dangerous Tory bastard. He's a selfish,entitled arsehole who should never have been in a position of power. He's also a massive racist.

RodionRomanovitch · 56-60, M

I always thought it odd the respect and admiration he had for Trump. People would say well he's just trying to ingratiate himself should he become PM and have to deal with him. But it was definitely more than just that. What seduced him (imo) was how an even bigger rogue and liar than himself got himself elected and suffered no political blowback no matter what provable bullshit he came out with. Boris seems to have deluded himself that that kind of dishonesty would just as easily wash with the British public. How wrong he was. I really hope he's out on his ear sooner rather than later.

LordShadowfire ·

@RodionRomanovitch I mean, he's a fat old white guy with funny hair. Don't know what everybody expected.

RodionRomanovitch · 56-60, M

@LordShadowfire There's an old anecdote from when he was Foreign Secretary and complaining about how no-one in the EU would take him seriously. One minister was said to have suggested that he should simply take a look in a mirror.

helenS · 36-40, F

Boris Johnson – I'm not really well-informed, but I saw him on TV several times recently, and he almost looked like a man who has mental issues. Nothing to do with his political opinions. I was a bit concerned.
Or maybe it's just his outward appearance, with that lunatic hair style - I don't know. 😐

HootyTheNightOwl

@helenS Johnson and Trump are probably long lost brothers...

OldBrit · 61-69, M

My thoughts...

I would be surprised if he is ousted - despite all the debacle recently he seems almost teflon coated. One could lend an argument to his backbenchers that if they didn't keep ruffling feathers allowing the media to report about their various rebellions etc. then most of the public wouldn't know - a lot don't seem to care anyway. Just look at his previous history and he still won a landslide victory - people then seem surprised when he continues to act as he has always done. My anecdotal evidence would be either you were appalled he won the election and are still appalled at how he behaves or (like my brother) you love him "cos he is a bit of fun compared to the others isn't he?"

Changing now? Too long before the election? If they think he is a risk let the covid thing play out for at least another 6 to 9 months then start to look at it to get someone in a year or less before the election. Less time for them to screw up then and can blame whatever on Boris.

Wasn't too long ago I was hearing Tory backbenchers rubbing their hands saying "We've 20 years in power with Boris in charge" - strange how times change so quickly.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/12/tory-vultures-are-circling-but-they-will-only-feast-when-johnsons-time-is-up

For anyone interested, this is the inside take of what is going on from a well-connected Conservative journalist.

Its pretty much as I said: Johnson is perhaps fatally wounded but will stagger on for now.

RodionRomanovitch · 56-60, M

@Burnley123 lol ..... his recent boasts about outlasting Thatcher and governing for ten years ring a little hollow now.

As I've said before , the sooner he's gone the better as far as I'm concerned. But ....playing the political game , if Labour want the best possible chance to overturn that huge majority , then it might be more propitious were he to continue in office for as long as possible. It's a near certainty that there's even more damaging news coming down the pike (the Afghan pet rescue and Jennifer Acuri are just two off the top of my head) , so let him hang on and further sully the Tory brand in the process. For just as long as they will let him of course.

Londonn · 36-40, M

I like him, I am not a nitpicking person cuz I come from Turkey and I know what a real hell looks like, try imagining erdogan as your PM for one second, the things you name as a scandal here can only be a little news in the 3rd page in a newspaper in Turkey. So overall Boris is doing good, plus I genuinely belive that he didn't handle the corona badly at start.. people with all the now data in their hand blame the uk gov for not doing this and that in the early pandemic, but to me it's like the last scene of Sully.. where the testing pilots immediately started a return prodecure as soon as the birds strike happened, which was not appeciable in real life situations.

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Londonn · 36-40, M

@Burnley123 oh I see, this happened after those insulate uk weirdos glue themselves on the motorway 😁 now thry should find a clever way to protest I assume

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@Londonn I support them lol. Agree to disagree. Mind how you go.

Entwistle · 56-60, M

@Londonn Democracy is fine if our options are truthful,honest people. Generally they are self serving,lying bastards.
They all promise much and deliver little. In fact often they deliver the exact opposite of what they promise.

Northwest · M

Very little chance he will for long, with two babies under the age of 2 to help care for, and [b]at least[/b] 5 more out there.

They import condoms into the UK, right?

SW-User

I think with their current majority, and time until the next election, he'll be left in place for another year or so. That way, he can be blamed for everything and a clean pair hands in place for the next election. I realise a clean pair of hands in the Conservative party is realistic.

Maybe the more likely option is that he decides he's had enough and resigns.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

I stand by this. He's a dead man walking.

RodionRomanovitch · 56-60, M

@Burnley123 And I concur.

Apparently , after Cummings left (and Johnson started briefing against him ) , he told him that he (Cummings) had never briefed against him , but when he did : ' he would fucking know about it '.

Looks like he was as good as his word. 😄

Unity

That man has survived a failed attempt at a pandemic, scandal after scandal for months on end and you think he won’t reach the end of his term? That man is untouchable it appears

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@Unity I thought that a few months ago. I also think that he should have got a lot more criticism during the pandemic.

However, his approval ratings have collapsed. It's not about what I think (I've never liked him) but the evidence really does suggest that he has lost popularity:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/boris-johnson-approval-rating

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@Burnley123 Also, the betting markets have him at 44% to be ousted next year, so my opinion on this really isn't leftfield:

https://www.gambling.com/news/how-long-will-boris-johnson-last-as-uk-prime-minister-2024000

OldBrit · 61-69, M

OK after the North Shropshire result & the large rebellion over covid-19 passes he looks far more vulnerable than previously. I may adjust my opinion.

However how the hell did the Lib Dems go from third to first with a 34% swing. Where were Labour? Keir might do well to have a long hard look in the mirror over Christmas he's surely missing the goal here. Sadly I think he's a really good guy but he's been rubbish as an inspirational leader he's far too polite and quiet.

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OldBrit · 61-69, M

@SW-User No as it shows their vote isn't committed enough to "the cause" currently to avoid tactical voting - they'd rather a Lib Dem win to oust a Tory than saying "I fully believe and commit to what Labour is currently about"

It's as poor a day for the leader of the opposition as it is for the PM I think

RodionRomanovitch · 56-60, M

@OldBrit Without tactical voting , Labour wouldn't have a hope of getting rid of the Tories at the next election. If the Conservatives can't hold a seat like North Shropshire then they are vulnerable everywhere. I expect we will see some kind of unofficial pact between Labour and the Lib Dems as the best hope of overturning their massive majority.

TopOfTheWorld

@RodionRomanovitch I very much hope we do see that.

RodionRomanovitch · 56-60, M

The bookies now have him at odds on not to see out 2022.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@RodionRomanovitch He was evens two days ago.

He's now got the Solskaer final days to him.

'Bojos at the wheel, at the wheel...'

RodionRomanovitch · 56-60, M

@Burnley123 I was talking to my better half earlier about how that Eton clique of Johnson , Cameron , Osborne et al had inflicted such catastrophe on the nation , when I came across this ; an extract from a book 'Sad Little Men'.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2021/aug/08/public-schoolboys-boris-johnson-sad-little-boys-richard-beard

RodionRomanovitch · 56-60, M

@RodionRomanovitch 25/1 on now that he won't see out next year. 👍

Elessar · 26-30, M

It feels like one decade ago when he ended up in the ICU after handshaking positives to "prove" the world COVID was safe to ignore. But I thought you guys handled if much better from more or less that point onwards than many other countries? Aside from this recently emerged scandal, I mean.

The U.K. is seen as a positive model over here, especially since vaccines rollout.

(Late edit: Not to justify him or the party, just curiosity here)

whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

I'm sure Boris intended to retire more or less gracefully after pushing Brexit through and take up lucrative jobs in "The City". But along came Covid and Fubared the whole plan. Like him or not, he is definitely the "AntiTrump" Tries to make himself look affable and harmless, But there is a lot going on under that haystack haircut. Still. He may be past his use by date, much as Churchill was post war. (And no, I am not comparing the two. Just their situations.)😷

PicturesOfABetterTomorrow · 41-45, M

I think as an outsider, but as someone who comes from a country with a very similar system the Diet Donald Trump is wearing thin on people including his own party. I think it will depend on how much of a liability they think he is. It also depends on how successful they think a potential replacement would be. The Liberals here went through a dark period where they just switched out party leaders for one ineffectual, incompetent, or disliked leader after another.

RedBaron · M

Won't the election be at the end of his term? If so, there's an easy answer. He will survive unless he resigns or dies in office.

OldBrit · 61-69, M

@RedBaron no the UK is not like that system at all.
We elect our mp in our constituency. We elect the person for that role nothing else. They may associate with a party at election time. The party with most seats gets to form government. (As a side note the mp can switch in and out of party allegiance whenever and how many times they like that doesn't necessitate another election as we elect the person not the party.)
OK once a party has enough seats to form a government (over 325 seats) they normally have their leader go to the queen to ask permission to form a government.
But they are only there as long as the party they represent want them.
We don't elect a pm we only eject our mp remember.
They can (and have regularly in the past) be ousted by their party under whatever system they have for leadership challenges.
Last point to remember in UK is that parliament is sovereign, nor the pm (they have relatively little executive powers) or even the government or cabinet to get anything done they have to get a majority in parliament which then means the queen will sign into legislation.

tennisdad · 41-45, M

Hope so! He is awesome!

SW-User

I think that he is doing an admirable job and has the trust of the nation. Oops, hang on, my unicorn has escaped 🦄

beckyromero · 36-40, F

[youtube=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0pTpwqkB48]

ImperialAerosolKidFromEP · 46-50, M

Really? I wonder if that's just a British thing or a Westminster thing. I don't think I've heard of a Canadian PM being removed by his own party

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@ImperialAerosolKidFromEP Its happened here several times.

LordShadowfire ·

Boris Johnson doesn't look like he's going to survive diabetes.

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