Will Boris Johnson survive his full term?
At the moment, it looks 50/50.
He won a landslide election victory two years ago and emerged from his government's (very bad) early handling of the corona crisis unscathed. However, problems are now mounting up and his personal popularity has collapsed. Despite never convincing, Labour has closed the gaps in the polls and our Prime Minister looks like he is floundering.
I think Johnson can ride out this current crisis if he has a quiet two months but he is probably one more major scandal away from losing his job. Unlike the American system, premiers can be removed by MPs in their own party during a term. The Conservative Party has form in this and Johnson himself only got his job when he led a mid-term rebellion against Theresa May. The Conservatives even got rid of Margaret Thatcher (an iconic figure for them) when they realised that she was set to lose the next election. Johnson has never been liked by the other leaders in his party and owes his success to his appeal with the public, an appeal which is in a state of steady collapse.
I would still predict that the Conservatives are more likely than not to win the next election because Keir Starmer is leading a vacuous opposition. However, it may well be with a different leader than Mr Johnson.
Thoughts?
He won a landslide election victory two years ago and emerged from his government's (very bad) early handling of the corona crisis unscathed. However, problems are now mounting up and his personal popularity has collapsed. Despite never convincing, Labour has closed the gaps in the polls and our Prime Minister looks like he is floundering.
I think Johnson can ride out this current crisis if he has a quiet two months but he is probably one more major scandal away from losing his job. Unlike the American system, premiers can be removed by MPs in their own party during a term. The Conservative Party has form in this and Johnson himself only got his job when he led a mid-term rebellion against Theresa May. The Conservatives even got rid of Margaret Thatcher (an iconic figure for them) when they realised that she was set to lose the next election. Johnson has never been liked by the other leaders in his party and owes his success to his appeal with the public, an appeal which is in a state of steady collapse.
I would still predict that the Conservatives are more likely than not to win the next election because Keir Starmer is leading a vacuous opposition. However, it may well be with a different leader than Mr Johnson.
Thoughts?
41-45, M
