Will Boris Johnson survive his full term?

At the moment, it looks 50/50.

He won a landslide election victory two years ago and emerged from his government's (very bad) early handling of the corona crisis unscathed. However, problems are now mounting up and his personal popularity has collapsed. Despite never convincing, Labour has closed the gaps in the polls and our Prime Minister looks like he is floundering.

I think Johnson can ride out this current crisis if he has a quiet two months but he is probably one more major scandal away from losing his job. Unlike the American system, premiers can be removed by MPs in their own party during a term. The Conservative Party has form in this and Johnson himself only got his job when he led a mid-term rebellion against Theresa May. The Conservatives even got rid of Margaret Thatcher (an iconic figure for them) when they realised that she was set to lose the next election. Johnson has never been liked by the other leaders in his party and owes his success to his appeal with the public, an appeal which is in a state of steady collapse.

I would still predict that the Conservatives are more likely than not to win the next election because Keir Starmer is leading a vacuous opposition. However, it may well be with a different leader than Mr Johnson.

Thoughts?

This page is a permanent link to the reply below and its nested replies. See all post replies »

OldBrit · 61-69, M

My thoughts...

I would be surprised if he is ousted - despite all the debacle recently he seems almost teflon coated. One could lend an argument to his backbenchers that if they didn't keep ruffling feathers allowing the media to report about their various rebellions etc. then most of the public wouldn't know - a lot don't seem to care anyway. Just look at his previous history and he still won a landslide victory - people then seem surprised when he continues to act as he has always done. My anecdotal evidence would be either you were appalled he won the election and are still appalled at how he behaves or (like my brother) you love him "cos he is a bit of fun compared to the others isn't he?"

Changing now? Too long before the election? If they think he is a risk let the covid thing play out for at least another 6 to 9 months then start to look at it to get someone in a year or less before the election. Less time for them to screw up then and can blame whatever on Boris.

Wasn't too long ago I was hearing Tory backbenchers rubbing their hands saying "We've 20 years in power with Boris in charge" - strange how times change so quickly.