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Republicans Warn Passing Voter ID Law Could Ruin Plan To Hand Congress To Democrats In November

With the 2026 midterm elections on the horizon amid increasing strife over problems facing the nation, Republican lawmakers issued an urgent warning that passing a national voter ID law could ruin their plan to hand Congress to the Democrats in November.

While President Trump and his administration continued to apply pressure to congressional GOP leaders and stress the importance of passing voter ID legislation, Republicans expressed concern that such a move could potentially spell doom for their goal of losing both the House and the Senate to Democrats this fall.

"There's a real danger that this could keep us in power," House Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters on Capitol Hill. "We've put a lot of effort into laying the groundwork to hand the Democrats full control of the legislative branch in November, and passing a law that would require voters to show a valid ID could completely derail those plans. We know the president has very strong feelings on the topic, but we're doing our best to avoid making any moves that could prevent us from losing both chambers of Congress."

Johnson's GOP colleagues agreed that now was not the time to bolster election integrity. "We can't worry about this right now," said Senate Majority Leader John Thune. "It would be best to wait until we lose the House and Senate to the Democrats, when we could all use passing a voter ID law as a campaign platform to convince people to vote us back into power in 2028 so we can go back to not really doing anything."

At publishing time, Republican leadership had also warned the White House that continuing to deport illegal aliens could negatively impact Democrats' vote totals.
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@JohnnySpot says
Isn't it common sense that ID is required to vote?
Only as long as it's free and easy to obtain voter ID. As currently implemented, that's not at all true.

It's fair to make a cost-benefit analysis of voter fraud and voter ID. Voter ID is great in theory, but in many places it has been used to suppress voters. How much suppression? Let's listen to the GAO.
Voter ID laws have been estimated by the U.S. Government Accountability Office to reduce voter turnout by 2-3 percentage points, translating to tens of thousands of votes lost in a single state.
https://www.aclu.org/news/civil-liberties/block-the-vote-voter-suppression-in-2020/

Thus voter ID, as currently implemented, is costing about 2,000,000 lost votes per major national election. That's the cost.

Now for the benefit. Heritage Foundation found 1,620 cases of voter fraud over a 40 year period; see below. Let's make best case assumptions by overestimating the rate of fraud per major national election; let's assume that ALL of those 1620 cases happened in the 10 presidential years inside that span. Thus, 162 cases per election that could presumably be blocked by voter fraud.

Best case: voter ID might catch 162 bad votes per major election. That's the benefit.

So the cost benefit analysis tells us that it costs about 2,000,000 legitimate votes to catch 162 fraudulent votes. That's a cost of 12,345 legit votes lost per fraudulent vote caught.

That cost is WAY WAY too high!!!






Historical Baseline: A landmark 2014 study cited by the Brennan Center for Justice found only 31 credible instances of voter impersonation out of more than 1 billion ballots cast between 2000 and 2014.

Mail-In Voting Rates: Recent data from the Brookings Institution indicates that between 2016 and 2022, fraudulent mail-in ballots accounted for approximately 0.000043% of total mail votes cast, or roughly 4 cases for every 10 million ballots.

The Heritage Foundation's Election Fraud Database, which tracks a wider range of irregularities, has identified 1,620 total proven instances of voter fraud since 1982. Given that over 1 billion votes were cast in federal elections alone during a shorter period (1988–2020), this equates to a very low rate of occurrence relative to the total volume.
sunsporter1649 · 70-79, M
@ElwoodBlues As the person that screams the loudest about one individual not getting fair treatment you are proposing to ignore voter fraud to save a buck. Any more brilliant ideas?
@sunsporter1649 So you STILL don't understand the cost calculation??

The cost is in lost legitimate votes!!! 2,000,000 legitimate votes suppressed by onerous voter ID systems!!

You thought cost could only be measured in dollars??? Seems I need to break out the baby spoon yet AGAIN!!!

I've got NO PROBLEM with the theory of voter ID, as long as it's free and easy. I DO have a problem with the practice of making it differentially harder for the elderly & working poor. https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/challenge-obtaining-voter-identification

"Voter ID laws have been estimated by the U.S. Government Accountability Office to reduce voter turnout by 2-3 percentage points, translating to tens of thousands of votes lost in a single state." https://www.aclu.org/news/civil-liberties/block-the-vote-voter-suppression-in-2020/

sunsporter1649 · 70-79, M
@ElwoodBlues ....and a partridge in a pear tree
JohnnySpot · 56-60, M
Isn't it common sense that ID is required to vote?
sunsporter1649 · 70-79, M
@ElwoodBlues And the Federal and State systems do not require identification, just issue benifits to anyone who wanders in the door?
JohnnySpot · 56-60, M
Will I need my ID to start collecting my social security?
Kwek00 · 41-45, M
@JohnnySpot Is getting social securit, also an important right as a citizen? Because voting is.
Watch which RINOs vote against this...

 
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