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Republicans Warn Passing Voter ID Law Could Ruin Plan To Hand Congress To Democrats In November

With the 2026 midterm elections on the horizon amid increasing strife over problems facing the nation, Republican lawmakers issued an urgent warning that passing a national voter ID law could ruin their plan to hand Congress to the Democrats in November.

While President Trump and his administration continued to apply pressure to congressional GOP leaders and stress the importance of passing voter ID legislation, Republicans expressed concern that such a move could potentially spell doom for their goal of losing both the House and the Senate to Democrats this fall.

"There's a real danger that this could keep us in power," House Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters on Capitol Hill. "We've put a lot of effort into laying the groundwork to hand the Democrats full control of the legislative branch in November, and passing a law that would require voters to show a valid ID could completely derail those plans. We know the president has very strong feelings on the topic, but we're doing our best to avoid making any moves that could prevent us from losing both chambers of Congress."

Johnson's GOP colleagues agreed that now was not the time to bolster election integrity. "We can't worry about this right now," said Senate Majority Leader John Thune. "It would be best to wait until we lose the House and Senate to the Democrats, when we could all use passing a voter ID law as a campaign platform to convince people to vote us back into power in 2028 so we can go back to not really doing anything."

At publishing time, Republican leadership had also warned the White House that continuing to deport illegal aliens could negatively impact Democrats' vote totals.

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ElwoodBlues · M

@JohnnySpot says

Isn't it common sense that ID is required to vote?

Only as long as it's free and easy to obtain voter ID. As currently implemented, that's not at all true.

It's fair to make a cost-benefit analysis of voter fraud and voter ID. Voter ID is great in theory, but in many places it has been used to suppress voters. How much suppression? Let's listen to the GAO.

Voter ID laws have been estimated by the U.S. Government Accountability Office to reduce voter turnout by 2-3 percentage points, translating to tens of thousands of votes lost in a single state.

https://www.aclu.org/news/civil-liberties/block-the-vote-voter-suppression-in-2020/

Thus voter ID, as currently implemented, is costing about 2,000,000 lost votes per major national election. That's the cost.

Now for the benefit. Heritage Foundation found 1,620 cases of voter fraud over a 40 year period; see below. Let's make best case assumptions by overestimating the rate of fraud per major national election; let's assume that ALL of those 1620 cases happened in the 10 presidential years inside that span. Thus, 162 cases per election that could presumably be blocked by voter fraud.

Best case: voter ID might catch 162 bad votes per major election. That's the benefit.

So the cost benefit analysis tells us that it costs about 2,000,000 legitimate votes to catch 162 fraudulent votes. That's a cost of 12,345 legit votes lost per fraudulent vote caught.

That cost is WAY WAY too high!!!

Historical Baseline: A landmark 2014 study cited by the Brennan Center for Justice found only 31 credible instances of voter impersonation out of more than 1 billion ballots cast between 2000 and 2014.

Mail-In Voting Rates: Recent data from the Brookings Institution indicates that between 2016 and 2022, fraudulent mail-in ballots accounted for approximately 0.000043% of total mail votes cast, or roughly 4 cases for every 10 million ballots.

The Heritage Foundation's Election Fraud Database, which tracks a wider range of irregularities, has identified 1,620 total proven instances of voter fraud since 1982. Given that over 1 billion votes were cast in federal elections alone during a shorter period (1988–2020), this equates to a very low rate of occurrence relative to the total volume.

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ElwoodBlues · M

@sunsporter1649 I know your reading comprehension is minimal and you are requesting spoon-feeding. Here's a little baby spoonful for ya🤣😂

A landmark 2014 study cited by the Brennan Center for Justice found only 31 credible instances of voter impersonation out of more than 1 billion ballots cast between 2000 and 2014.

Another baby spoonful for ya🤣😂

Recent data from the Brookings Institution indicates that between 2016 and 2022, fraudulent mail-in ballots accounted for approximately 0.000043% of total mail votes cast, or roughly 4 cases for every 10 million ballots.

sunsporter1649 · 70-79, M

@ElwoodBlues LOL, the brennan center, surely an unbiased source, staffed equally with liberals and conservatives, eh, just like the brookings. We guess that is why you so adamently propose cleaning up the voter roles, to prove they are up to date and secure, right?

Kwek00 · 41-45, M

@sunsporter1649 There is a reason why the people that you like aren't in those institutions Sporter... just like you, you can't take any of them serious.

ElwoodBlues · M

@sunsporter1649 MORE spoonfuls for ya, sunstroke🤣😂

The Heritage foundation is famously conservative.

The Heritage Foundation's Election Fraud Database, which tracks a wider range of irregularities, has identified 1,620 total proven instances of voter fraud since 1982. Given that over 1 billion votes were cast in federal elections alone during a shorter period (1988–2020), this equates to a very low rate of occurrence relative to the total volume.

And STILL more spoonfuls for ya, sunstroke🤣😂

Heritage Foundation found 1,620 cases of voter fraud over a 40 year period. Let's make best case assumptions by overestimating the rate of fraud per major national election; let's assume that ALL of those 1620 cases happened in the 10 presidential years inside that span. Thus, 162 cases per election that could presumably be blocked by voter fraud.

Best case: voter ID might catch 162 bad votes per major election. That's the benefit.

So the cost benefit analysis tells us that it costs about 2,000,000 legitimate votes to catch 162 fraudulent votes. That's a cost of 12,345 legit votes lost per fraudulent vote caught.

That cost is WAY WAY too high!!!

sunsporter1649 · 70-79, M

@ElwoodBlues Since 2018, there were 660 elections decided by 10 or fewer votes. Of those 660 elections, 394 were determined by fewer than five votes, including 94 decided by a single vote. Members of the Democratic Party won 139 elections decided by 10 or fewer votes, while Republicans won 160, and nonpartisan or minor party candidates won 361. Among these elections, the one decided with the fewest total votes was a 2024 Constitution Party primary for South Carolina's 4th Congressional District (13). Mark Hackett beat Michael Chandler 8 votes to 5.

ElwoodBlues · M

@sunsporter1649 And how many votes were cast in each of those 660 close races?? Would the 0.0000031% make a difference? would the 0.000043% make a difference? It's highly unlikely those percentages would have changed any of those tiny races.

You know what would have likely had a much bigger effect?? 2,000,000 legitimate votes suppressed by onerous voter ID systems!!

Thanks for highlighting the importance of cost benefit analysis!!

A landmark 2014 study cited by the Brennan Center for Justice found only 31 credible instances of voter impersonation out of more than 1 billion ballots cast between 2000 and 2014.

sunsporter1649 · 70-79, M

@ElwoodBlues So in order to save a few bucks screw one of the most precious rights we have, eh?

Kwek00 · 41-45, M

@sunsporter1649 But you don't care about that right that "we" have... you only care that you have it. Just be honest for once, and say that it's better to skip the elections all together. Just like everything else you care about, "the right to vote" is just an aesthetic for you. It' s something to pin on your jacket, so you can show off and feel good about yourself. Just like being a "law abiding citizen" and all those other labels you like to flaunt around when you are talking about yourself.

ElwoodBlues · M

@sunsporter1649 says

So in order to save a few bucks screw one of the most precious rights we have, eh?

I guess I can expect you to fail to follow the argument!!

Lemme get out the baby spoon again🤣😂

the cost benefit analysis tells us that it costs about 2,000,000 legitimate votes to catch 162 fraudulent votes. That's a cost of 12,345 legit votes lost per fraudulent vote caught.

That cost is WAY WAY too high!!!

sunsporter1649 · 70-79, M

@ElwoodBlues That is why you so adamently support cleaning up the voter registration roles, to prove the roles are correct and eligable voters cast their votes properly, right?

ElwoodBlues · M

@sunsporter1649 We've been thru that, sunstroke. The data you presented crossed with the national death rate shows the rolls are cleaned up monthly. And the modern fraudulent voting rates disprove your favorite myth and show that tombstones are very rarely voted.

Now please stop ignoring the cost benefit analysis.

The cost benefit analysis tells us that it costs about 2,000,000 legitimate votes to catch 162 fraudulent votes. That's a cost of 12,345 legit votes lost per fraudulent vote caught.

That cost is WAY WAY too high!!!
That cost is WAY WAY too high!!!

sunsporter1649 · 70-79, M

@ElwoodBlues Judicial Watch has been deploying the NVRA for years in courts across the land, pressuring state governments to clean up their voter rolls. Recent developments in cases in Kentucky and New York put Judicial Watch past the five million milestone.

In Kentucky, state election board officials reported that “roughly 735,000 ineligible voter registrations” have been removed from voter rolls, as part of a 2018 consent decree settling a Judicial Watch lawsuit. “Since the consent decree was entered,” election officials notes, “a lot has changed. The State Board of Elections has worked overtime to comply with the consent decree and to clean up Kentucky’s voter rolls.”

A lot has changed in New York City too. As part of 2022 settlement with Judicial Watch, New York City began removing the names of ineligible voters from its voting rolls. Following the settlement, New York removed 440,000 ineligible names. New data for March 2023 to February 2025 show the removal of another 477,000 names—a total of more than 900,000 names.

Judicial Watch has notched victories in election integrity cases across America. In Los Angeles, county officials confirmed the removal of more than 1.2 million names from voter rolls as part of a settlement of a 2017 JW lawsuit. Judicial Watch legal pressure also resulted in election roll clean-ups in Pennsylvania, Colorado, North Carolina, Kentucky, and Ohio.

ElwoodBlues · M

@sunsporter1649 As I keep repeating to you, the Heritage Foundation's Election Fraud Database, which tracks a wider range of irregularities, has identified 1,620 total proven instances of voter fraud since 1982.

That span includes ten national presidential elections and thousands of smaller elections. Lemme again underline how small that 1620 instances are given 40 years of elections.

sunsporter1649 · 70-79, M

@ElwoodBlues As the person that screams the loudest about one individual not getting fair treatment you are proposing to ignore voter fraud to save a buck. Any more brilliant ideas?

ElwoodBlues · M

@sunsporter1649 So you STILL don't understand the cost calculation??

The cost is in lost legitimate votes!!! 2,000,000 legitimate votes suppressed by onerous voter ID systems!!

You thought cost could only be measured in dollars??? Seems I need to break out the baby spoon yet AGAIN!!!

I've got NO PROBLEM with the theory of voter ID, as long as it's free and easy. I DO have a problem with the practice of making it differentially harder for the elderly & working poor. https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/challenge-obtaining-voter-identification

"Voter ID laws have been estimated by the U.S. Government Accountability Office to reduce voter turnout by 2-3 percentage points, translating to tens of thousands of votes lost in a single state." https://www.aclu.org/news/civil-liberties/block-the-vote-voter-suppression-in-2020/

sunsporter1649 · 70-79, M

@ElwoodBlues ....and a partridge in a pear tree