Is the western world moving in a far-right direction?
I think that it is, slowly away. In my time, I've seen radical parties and radical ideas normalised along with conspiracy theories. Large minorities of people support these ideas and it's become normalised for people (and politicians) in the middle. The Overton window always changes and it's clear which way it is going.
This is about Trump, but it's not just about him because Europe has had a resurgence of 'nationalist' parties who are losing their taboo and becoming slowly more influential. The British Conservative Party is not far-right and is not as radical as - say - the US Republicans or the German AFD. However, they've recently instituted measures that effectively criminalise asylum seekers. The Tories want to send them to Rwanda to be processed. They also passed a public order bill which means you can get locked up for 'disruption.' Most protest causes some kind of disruption and that is half of the point. Here, UKIP and the Brexit Party acted as outliers to push the Tories in a more nativist direction. Obviously, they still have the same neoliberal policies that benefit the rich. Blame someone else and people will vote for you nonetheless.
In continental Europe (where most countries have proportional representation voting) radical right parties have emerged and become more popular. In some cases, they have served in Government either on a local or regional level. In Italy, Hungary and Poland, they have led governments. Trump has taken over the US Republican Party to the point where other candidates are terrified to say they won't support him if he goes to jail for insighting an insurrection. Hungary is the place where the far right has had the most success. If you have time, this is an excellent article:
https://www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/en/content/politics-worst-practices-hungary-2010s
Why is this happening? My take on this is because Western economies are now in a period of long-term low (or zero) growth. The neoliberal era (from the 80s to the 00s) saw rapid growth over a long period of time. However, much of this was created debt accumulation and the financialization of our economies, which also entrenched greater instability. It also disproportionately effected some groups more than others. This came to a head with the 2007/08 financial crash. That incident really was a bookmark in modern political history and it didn't come about [i]just [/i]because of greedy bankers but because the growth models of our economies were unsustainable. After the recession, we had some periods of slow growth before Covid. Since the Covid crash, whatever growth we have had has been eaten by inflation. The days of long-term economic growth are probably gone for good in the west and people can feel it. A big part of this is indeed down to globalisation.
When the economics change, so does the politics, even if there is usually a lag. More people are open to question whether the conventional politics of the last fifty years represent them amd are more open to alternatives. The left has had its own alternative candidates and answers: Corbyn, Sanders, Syriza and others. Outside France (where Jean-Luc Melenchon is a major figure) this has mostly been defeated. So politics in most places has the liberal centre holding onto the status quo against an increasingly radicalised right wing. In many cases, these centrists have taken on more right-wing politics to try and get elected. I'm thinking of Macron and Keir Starmer in particular. Change can happen from within as well as without. The change that gets the most support (regardless of whether their solutions will improve people's lives) is coming from the right. I hope I am wrong but this process is set to continue.
This is about Trump, but it's not just about him because Europe has had a resurgence of 'nationalist' parties who are losing their taboo and becoming slowly more influential. The British Conservative Party is not far-right and is not as radical as - say - the US Republicans or the German AFD. However, they've recently instituted measures that effectively criminalise asylum seekers. The Tories want to send them to Rwanda to be processed. They also passed a public order bill which means you can get locked up for 'disruption.' Most protest causes some kind of disruption and that is half of the point. Here, UKIP and the Brexit Party acted as outliers to push the Tories in a more nativist direction. Obviously, they still have the same neoliberal policies that benefit the rich. Blame someone else and people will vote for you nonetheless.
In continental Europe (where most countries have proportional representation voting) radical right parties have emerged and become more popular. In some cases, they have served in Government either on a local or regional level. In Italy, Hungary and Poland, they have led governments. Trump has taken over the US Republican Party to the point where other candidates are terrified to say they won't support him if he goes to jail for insighting an insurrection. Hungary is the place where the far right has had the most success. If you have time, this is an excellent article:
https://www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/en/content/politics-worst-practices-hungary-2010s
Why is this happening? My take on this is because Western economies are now in a period of long-term low (or zero) growth. The neoliberal era (from the 80s to the 00s) saw rapid growth over a long period of time. However, much of this was created debt accumulation and the financialization of our economies, which also entrenched greater instability. It also disproportionately effected some groups more than others. This came to a head with the 2007/08 financial crash. That incident really was a bookmark in modern political history and it didn't come about [i]just [/i]because of greedy bankers but because the growth models of our economies were unsustainable. After the recession, we had some periods of slow growth before Covid. Since the Covid crash, whatever growth we have had has been eaten by inflation. The days of long-term economic growth are probably gone for good in the west and people can feel it. A big part of this is indeed down to globalisation.
When the economics change, so does the politics, even if there is usually a lag. More people are open to question whether the conventional politics of the last fifty years represent them amd are more open to alternatives. The left has had its own alternative candidates and answers: Corbyn, Sanders, Syriza and others. Outside France (where Jean-Luc Melenchon is a major figure) this has mostly been defeated. So politics in most places has the liberal centre holding onto the status quo against an increasingly radicalised right wing. In many cases, these centrists have taken on more right-wing politics to try and get elected. I'm thinking of Macron and Keir Starmer in particular. Change can happen from within as well as without. The change that gets the most support (regardless of whether their solutions will improve people's lives) is coming from the right. I hope I am wrong but this process is set to continue.
41-45, M
