Place your bets ! How many Tory MP's are going to vote that they have no confidence in the PM ?

@whowasthatmaskedman Back to the 'good' old days of the 18th century, the days of corruption, delusion and disdain. Jolly hocky sticks, what? Let's shoot a couple of peasants before brekkers, shall we old chap?

@HarrietteSpeedy 'Not enough, unfortunately. '

Au contraire , it's plenty enough. Let Johnson enjoy his pyrrhic victory while he can. Reality with catch up with him soon enough.

@LegendofPeza I hope you are correct!

@Burnley123 'He'll probably just survive. '

Come on Burnley , we want numbers !

@LegendofPeza lol. I voted 100-125. That is my best pic.

It won't be lower and it might be slightly higher.

After my prediction, I looked at the betting markets. He has about 80% chance of winning this, according to them.

@Burnley123 I agree re an obvious successor

@OldBrit 'Surprised they went before the by elections' ..... there's been talk it was deliberately engineered that way by his supporters to avoid a potentially worse environment later.

I think you might be bob on with your guess (100 - 120) , and I think that still probably means it will be curtains for him sooner rather than later.

@LegendofPeza I do wonder that too

@MartinII That is true. He has some staunch back bench supporters so it must have been at least a third of the front benches voted against.

@Burnley123 I'm not sure if it was Brady himself or another Tory MP , but the point was made recently that the party could always change their own rules (re: the twelve month safety net) if there was the stomach for it.

@LegendofPeza What a shot show.

Exact Johnson to try and bring back hanging and mandatory national anthems in schools to 'appease the base'

@MartinII ... of course 😏

@helenS 9pm, UK time.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-60289386

@Burnley123 10pm CET. It will keep me awake. I would so want that ugly horror clown to never show up in TV again.

@helenS The betting markets say he will probably just survive, and I agree. If there was a strong alternative, he would be doomed.

@smiler2012 Much as I dislike the way he has behaved and led the party (had I been a Tory MP I would have voted against him) I’m not sure you are right. I can’t, at the moment, see a prospective Tory leader who is likely to do better in a general election.

@MartinII i thought that snivelling little weasel gove would be up for it . i am not a tory and never will but i just do not trust gove he looks exactly what he is . then if you are correct the tories have problems . this partygate is not going to go away as i said . you are the government with a prime minister reputation tarnished . do you think this will not come back too haunt the tories if johnson stays in post at the next general election

@smiler2012 I agree with you about Gove. I used to like him, but he has proved to be unprincipled and authoritarian. As to how the next election might go, under any leader, I think the Opposition will have a big influence on that. And so far Starmer has shown a remarkable tendency to miss open goals!