Surprised they went before the by elections as if he survives he can't be challenged for another year. If say Wakefield is a massive swing to Labour that'll reinvigorate them campaigning in the red wall constituencies and Boris won't go. If then the October standards review is critical again... But he can't be challenged etc etc
@OldBrit 'Surprised they went before the by elections' ..... there's been talk it was deliberately engineered that way by his supporters to avoid a potentially worse environment later.
I think you might be bob on with your guess (100 - 120) , and I think that still probably means it will be curtains for him sooner rather than later.