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Are the global climate changes cause for alarm?

I have been reading Climate Courage by Andreas Karelas upon finding it at a bargain store. This matter of global warming I had come to believe was something which has been blown out of proportion by the media. Could it be a collective hallucination that human industry is causing all these environmental changes? I have a feeling many want to deny the harmful effect humans have on the environment as it's too much of an inconvenience for them to think otherwise. On the other hand, I have been persuaded that some environmentalists are fabricating information to create a sense of alarm. Carbon dioxide has been this great obsession when it's not truly a toxin and I have yet to see any clear evidence that it's worthy of all the media attention and alarmist propaganda about how it's harming the global environment.
CestManan · 46-50, F
oh gyod people worry about it but of course no one wants to give up their own comfort, they want the other guy to do it.

The media is very good at creating all these scares. The world is going to end, the environment will be ruined, some horrible dictator will come, the antichrist will send us to hell, whatever.
@CestManan I think it has to do with costs. Prices of solar cells are coming down; cost of electricity is rising; people don't know how long the cells will last. Maybe at first solar cells were only economical in the sun belt, but they are saving money in more and more parts of the country.
CestManan · 46-50, F
@ElwoodBlues They come up with these ideas but then it takes decades before they become standard.

I still think solar cells should have been the norm since a while ago. I remember hearing about them back in like 1981 when I was first starting school.

But yeah I can imagine "how long they will last" being a point of concern.

Wow, I was just skimming prices of those things, yeah it would take a lot of years before it would even pay for itself in electric bill savings.

[quote]On average, solar panels cost roughly $2.95 per watt. Solar panel costs range from $17,430–$23,870, with average costs around $20,650. According to Zillow, solar panels boost home sale prices by 4.1%.[/quote]
@CestManan The average payback period for home solar panels in the U.S is about 8 years, according to energybot.com.

[quote]Payback periods for solar panels vary greatly depending on several factors. The biggest factors that will dictate your payback period are:

* Amount of electricity you use
* Cost of your system
* Solar incentives, rebates, and tax credit in your area
* The amount of energy your system generates
* The cost of electricity in your area[/quote]

It goes on to list payback times state by state.
[b]https://www.energybot.com/blog/payback-period-for-solar-panels.html[/b]
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Neoerectus · M
@BlueGreenGrey absolutely. The oceanic methane releases will grow anyway...
@Neoerectus Added to this is the contribution of water vapour in the atmosphere.
@sunriselover then there's nitrous oxide, which "has a global warming potential 273 times higher than carbon dioxide, and it lasts in the atmosphere for a century" ...

[u]https://www.canarymedia.com/podcasts/catalyst-with-shayle-kann/the-greenhouse-gas-you-dont-hear-enough-about[/u]

[u]https://civileats.com/2019/09/19/the-greenhouse-gas-no-ones-talking-about-nitrous-oxide-on-farms-explained/[/u]

... as well as ozone and other greenhouse gases

[u]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_list_of_greenhouse_gases[/u]
Ask our administration’s climate czar, John Kerry. He flies on fossil fueled aircraft to climate change venues where in his profound hubris and stupidity has the temerity to chide the rest of us for not bowing and kneeling at the altar of climate change and kissing his ass.
He’s a hypocritical prick, but being married to wealth (Heinz) he does not have any credibility.
@soar2newhighs You don't think kerry buys carbon offsets???
@ElwoodBlues I just don’t need to hear Kerry rant about climate change and how we should act when he’s flying on fossil fueled keys to climate change venues. He’s a hypocrite. An arrogant one, too.
@soar2newhighs You can offset your travel CO2; it's not terribly expensive for a rich guy like Kerry. Nothing hypocritical about traveling and offsetting your carbon.
Ynotisay · M
Maybe the 'science" part was tripping you up. When data is on the table scientists don't care about the outcome. They care about the process of getting to the outcome. If the FACTS weren't in place there would be no media coverage because it would be a non-issue. And if you've been 'persuaded' to question the science there's a reason for that. And in most all cases you can determine why that is on your own. [b]Consider the source.[/b] If you don't, sectors like the oil industry, which has spent BILLIONS trying to persuade people that they're being lied to, will win. But you won't.
Ynotisay · M
@BlueGreenGrey And there you go. It's all so blatant and all so ignored by way too many. And yeah. Oil prices. You'd like to think that, at the VERY least, people would have some understanding of how prices are set. Nope. Doesn't happen. But we're supposed to respect all opinions? Nah. Hard pass.
@Ynotisay I agree, some "opinions" or "viewpoints" are just rubbish, but regardless, opinions never outweigh facts and reality. If our species is going to survive, without the idiots killing us all off, some people are going to have to be dragged kicking and screaming into acknowledging the fundamental difference between facts and opinions. There are few situations without facts, and baseless opinions deserve no seat at any table. Kick these f*ckers "off the island".
Ynotisay · M
@BlueGreenGrey Nailed it. That's also why I see AI having the potential to bring down societies. I'm not sure we're smart enough to handle what's coming.
Here's a response I wrote some time ago about CO2 and other factors affecting climate change. The quotes aren't you, they are somebody else with similar questions.

[quote]but I've yet to hear a rational explanation of how miniscule increases in an atmospheric trace gas such as CO2, causes the earth to warm.[/quote] It's because CO2 & methane are transparent to visible light but more opaque to infrared. The solar energy comes pouring in via the visible spectrum, but the heat can't leave so easily via the infrared spectrum due to that opacity. Kids' version:
https://www.sciencenewsforstudents.org/article/explainer-co2-and-other-greenhouse-gases
idealized quantitative model: https://www.climate-policy-watcher.org/coriolis-force/a-simple-mathematical-model-of-the-greenhouse-effect.html

[quote] In order to actually prove human carbon emissions influence climate, all variables would have to remain constant[/quote] Nope. With multiple data points we can solve for multiple variables simultaneously. Detailed climate models account for all the variables you list and more. They are verified and calibrated based on 700,000 years of prior climate data.
http://web.mit.edu/globalchange/www/climate.html

[quote] Global warming models are based on small amounts of data. The earth is 4.6 billion years old, and we are expected to believe they can draw conclusions based on a hockey stick graph with 50 years of data?[/quote]
Nope, not 50 years, 800,000 years, covering about 7 ice ages. The climate data comes from bubbles in glacial ice, and is corroborated by data from lake & sea floor sediments.
https://icecores.org/about-ice-cores
CO2 & methane & temp data

Here's [i]where[/i] the various data sets were collected:

The most salient thing about the 800,000 years of climate data is the rate of change during those previous 7 ice ages compared to the current rate of change this century.

[quote] Where does the money for climate research come from?[/quote]
Fair question - it comes mostly from the National Science Foundation. Equally fair: where does the money for climate denial come from? The US oil industry makes about $110 [i]billion[/i] per year; coal another $20 billion. Big Oil spends $3.6 billion per year on advertising; a sum equal to about 8X the whole NSF climate budget. You're not naive enough to believe [i]none[/i] of that money goes to propaganda, are you?
@ElwoodBlues The trouble is if someone does not accept climate change, there is nothing you can do to alter the persons perspective. The evidence is before them and they have chosen to reject it.

One wonders what other delusionary views they hold and how they interact in the real world.
@sunriselover The cost of renewable electricity is now below the cost of coal power. Factors like that will phase out some carbon sources easily. Legislation can do a fair amount. And we only need to get down to 2 or so tons per person of C02 emissions.
Fairydust · F
Climate change is being pushed to tax us more and gain control, take our freedom away.

It’s just another government scam! Being pushed by the unelected world economic forum, who fly around the world in private jets! Dictating us bottom feeders need to eat bugs to change the weather!!!

Same ones are spraying crap out of planes to change the weather so the people will agree like zombies.

Ffs 🤦🏼‍♀️
Fairydust · F
@Ynotisay
Are you implying that’s me!

[quote]I'll never understand why so many have so little self-respect. Weakness, fear and a need to blame. What a shitty way to go through[/quote]


You really have no idea what’s really going on in the world!
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Fairydust · F
@Emosaur
They control them too!!
Here's another way to look at managing anthropogenic climate change; thru the lenses of probability and cost benefit analysis.

The total stock capitalization of American businesses traded on the stock exchanges is $48 trillion. Someone on Quora calculated the land & resource value of the whole USA at $5000 trillion. So I don't think it's unreasonable to value US seaside land, buildings, & infrastructure at the very round number of $100 trillion.

8000 years of sea levels

[i]Average sea level rise since 1880[/i]
https://www.globalchange.gov/browse/indicators/global-sea-level-rise

[i]Local sea level rise, mm/year, as measured by GPS[/i]

If you are CEO of a $100 trillion corporation, and some of your people are telling you the whole thing could be flooded in 20 years or 40 years or whatever, what's the prudent thing to do? Answer: ask for cost benefit analyses.

This approach removes the whole "religious war" aspect of the question and focuses on insurance style calculations.

What are the cost estimates for protecting your $100 trillion from floods, and what's a reasonable probability estimate that the doomsayers are correct? The religious war approach pins those probabilities at 0% and 100%, but suppose you allow a 25% probability that the doomsayers are correct, or, alternatively, that they're only 25% correct (25% is just for the sake of argument; I'm not married to the figure).

With that assumption, you now have $25 trillion at risk, so what's the prudent amount to spend to insure that $25 trillion?

A quick google says homeowners insurance costs about $3300/yr for each $1 million of value. Scaling to $25 trillion, that works out to $82 billion per year, or a 12 year investment of about $1 trillion.

So there's nothing outlandish about a ten year one trillion dollar green energy plan, especially given that the plan includes plenty of jobs, infrastructure upgrades, and goods purchased from American businesses.
TexasDude · 31-35, M
In the 70's they were worried about Global Cooling. Weather patterns fluctuate and the earth is always fine.

In short, I think it's all very blown out of proportion. Yes, I try to do my part to take care of the earth (like recycling) but I'm not freaked out about climate change
ArishMell · 70-79, M
@TexasDude Yes, because the rate of change is far greater than the natural ones should be. NB: it is climate, not weather, that is at issue. Weather is the local, short-term results of climate so shows the symptoms of the problem.

The speculation on a new cold phase did not last long.

Climatic warming has become very contentious though, perhaps mainly because trying to ameliorate it needs so many people - most of whom are we relatively well-off citizens of rich countries - to change very comfy and frankly profligate ways of life we understandably fear changing or losing.

Of course, if it eventually proves that the current warming is mainly natural rather than anthropogenic, then we won't be able to do anything to stop it. We'd have to adapt as best we can, but it will be desperately hard.

A normal Ice Age interglacial would be serious enough (perhaps 10m sea-level rise?). At least no-one alive now will ever see the end of the present Ice Age entirely, but that is looking many millennia, perhaps tens, of millennia, ahead.


What's less discussed, is what will happen a little further ahead when we can't argue about using oil and natural-gas because it's all gone (coal will be available for a bit longer), and metal ores have become much scarcer.
Ynotisay · M
@TexasDude In short, anyone leaning on that horseshit from the 70's isn't showing themselves much self-respect. There was no consensus, climate science didn't exist then like it did today, and it came down to one reporter for Newsweek, not a scientist, putting out a nine paragraph article.
So that tells me you're locking in to something you were told that isn't true. I know where that strategy originated, and who believes it, but the question is why, Why are some so afraid of reality that they choose belief that's been created for them? What's in it for you bud?
DeWayfarer · 61-69, M
Take a look at Antarctica some time.
Confined · 56-60, M
Look at the climate from 4 billion years ago, and the many changes with out the intervention of man. How do you explain the ice ages with out man? How do you explain it warming up again with out man? We are entering an ice age again. The temp changes around us does not change that fact.
@Confined I'm not a climate scientist. I don't have the resources to do my own research. I have to rely on the good faith and competence of the overwhelming majority of disparate climate scientist across the globe who have little reason to fabricate their data. Big oil, on the other hand, with its deep pockets (like Mariana trench deep) haven't been able to poke holes in this bogus science
Confined · 56-60, M
@ImperialAerosolKidFromEP If I was making money on the climate change hoax, I would lie lie lie lie to make more money. Id fabricate data and make wild claims to support my lies. That is what all these people are doing. If they told the truth they would be out of a Job!
You can do your own reseach. It took me time to look at all the data myself. Man has done very little to affect climate. We are going to have another ice age, then it will warm up, then another ice age, then it will warm up, then another ice age, then it will warm up again, then another ice age, then it will warm up again. Many can not change this fact. Period end of story.
@Confined so much money that you'd make the fossil fuel industry look like a bunch of paupers?
yep, it is changing, its been cycling for billions of years. it will be cycling long after we are gone.
CestManan · 46-50, F
@SheCallsMeCrushDaddy That is why they changed the name from global warming to climate change. 😄 They gotta keep the scare alive somehow. Man, hard to imagine though Mexico and Hawaii getting any sort of snow.

Also, the one who needs to worry about himself - he is one of the more easily agitated ones on here.
He would spat off to even Ghandi.
CestManan · 46-50, F
@SheCallsMeCrushDaddy BTW, there is evidence of climate change having adverse effects, I found this headline -

[quote]Due to freezing conditions in the UK the British Naturist Society has seen the size of its male members shrink dramatically.[/quote]
@CestManan cold weather will do that. LOL
David Wallis-Wells The Uninhabitable Earth should be compulsory reading for all COP28 delegates, not as though they care
No one will ever convince a climate denier, not even in the final week of the human species

I mean even people dying of Covid in hospitals were denying they had Covid right up until the moment they died

It's the same, irrational mindset, these people who won't accept reality, it could be the environment, it could be public health, it could be literally any subject, this demographic is going to conjure a way to deny the reality of that subject (and most hilariously, keep falling back on blaming that old chestnut. "The Media", unless it's right wing media of course) ... which would be fine, if it only resulted in their own demise, but unfortunately idiots affect everyone and should be dealt with accordingly

Trying to characterize CO2 as a toxin or not a toxin shows you don't even grasp the basic fundamentals of a "greenhouse effect" but also just for sh*ts and giggles try breathing in a sealed room with nothing but CO2 and see how long you live.
ArishMell · 70-79, M
@BlueGreenGrey The "deniers" of this that or other all have their own reasons, but I do wonder if some are driven by fear of what they try to deny and deride.
At the very least, you have to admit that the climate is changing. Here in Britain, we still have our cold winters, which our homes are built to withstand - we have central heat... but we are also having hotter summers.

Our homes are not designed for the extreme heat that we're getting - and opening the windows is counter productive when the heat outside is akin to turning the oven on and opening the door.

Without intervention, people are going to die because they overheated or dehydrated. We've had a/c for decades now... yet, only some private households have been retrofitted with this technology - and certainly not many rental properties where our elderly and disabled live... people who might struggle to breathe and look after themselves in temperatures over 30 degrees.

Many work places do have a/c and most working age people can benefit from that during the hottest part of the day, even if it does mean letting the subcontractor working on the roof inside for his breaks so that he can cool down out of the heat - but, what about the elderly and disabled???
Midnightoker1 · 61-69, M
Everyone complains about the weather...
But no one wants to sacrifice a virgin to change it...........
Tarnished · 26-30, M
Climate change should be a cause for concern and the general consensus in the scientific community is it’s bad for us. I believe the main issues surrounding it is the heavy disagreements or disregard of how to effectively handle climate change.
Neoerectus · M
@Tarnished We KNOW how to mitigate. We just lack the will to do so.
sunsporter1649 · 70-79, M
@Tarnished A horse designed by consensus.

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HoraceGreenley · 56-60, M
@Emosaur Did you just make that up or did you read that somewhere?
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That depends on your politics. American people live under the pro warming regime of corporations that killed the ecosystem, the rest of the people in the world are, were, just not able to get in the way of the mass extinction killing project based in DC.
Duh!
Patriot96 · 56-60, C
@Roundandroundwego pray tell, what extinction?
@Patriot96 so, right wing politics. As a human being you only have one coherent ideology.
@Patriot96 this won't let me respond. So you're a conservative.
1490wayb · 56-60, M
it used to be called pollution and yes that is a huge problem...the anarctic and alaska were previously warm tropical areas according to fossils being found.
Neoerectus · M
@1490wayb And all the continents were one called Pangea. Apples and oranges.
Ynotisay · M
@1490wayb Went back 90 million years for that one. Why?
ArishMell · 70-79, M
@1490wayb Pollution is the cause, not a synonym, of climate change, and there is one huge difference between what is happening at the moment and what happened tens to hundreds of millions of years ago.

That difference boils down to one thing, something that's been around as a species for less than 1M years: Man, doing things that would never happen naturally, with huge and totally un-natural effects in total.

If it does turn out the climate is changing entirely naturally, there is absolutely nothing we can do to control it or the devastating impact it would have on us world-wide. Man did live through the Last Glacial Maximum of the present Ice Age, and at least some of the preceding warm phase; but there were far fewer people on Earth, living far simpler (though hard) lives, and it would have have been easier for them to cope with the worst conditions than any of us living now could. The climate changes were natural so much slower than we are seeing, and the people and animals just moved to more comfortable areas.
No. I will buy a heavier jacket or a new bikini whichever I need,
@ElwoodBlues Are you frightened? Man up, little boy 🙄
@AtticEscapee Ducking the question via personal attacks, LOL!!!


Personally, I live several hundred feet above sea level. my property isn't threatened. But we tax payers in the US often end up paying for flooding in other states.



[sep][sep][sep][center] UPDATE [/center][sep][sep][sep]

Personal attacks are all you have. Good to know.
@ElwoodBlues Awwwww mommy has your binky 🤣
TBIman · 41-45, M
what's global mean? Worldwide?
ArishMell · 70-79, M
@TBIman LOL!

Oh hello! Not heard from you for ages.

I was getting worried. I'd feared you'd travelled to the edge of the world you used to say is flat to see what's below it, and fallen off; but now you say the Earth is neither a sphere nor flat!
TBIman · 41-45, M
@ArishMell I do not know what this world is, but it obviously is [u]NOT[/u] a moving ball. You have 0 evidence to support that absurd notion. The world is unquestionably a level plane. Why do you need to know what's below the Earth'?

I'm still around. I just don't post much because of people like you.
ArishMell · 70-79, M
@TBIman You are a childish bully.
The problem with challenging the theory of global warming is that ulterior motives for promoting the theory aren't very convincing. On the other hand, there are [i]huge[/i] motives for denying the theory, and big bucks behind it, but there's still widespread acceptance that carbon emissions are causing the problem
@Fairydust Antarctica is losing ice at a phenomenal rate. Just look at the satellite images over the last twenty years.
@sunriselover oh, who cares? He's just going to find his own satellite photograph from 15 years before Sputnik, then show you a photoshopped version of the same image and tell you it's from last year. And then make it into a meme
@ImperialAerosolKidFromEP peer review is pretty rigorous in the Scientific community.

Though to my horror Wikipedia is claimed to be a reliable source.
Fairydust · F
[media=https://tiktok.com/7230166573112184090]
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Fairydust · F
@Emosaur [media=https://tiktok.com/7307918173242707233]
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After what I have seen what climate change has done to the Pacific Northwest in the United States in the past almost 30 years, only a fool would deny its existence.
Neoerectus · M
@NativePortlander1970 When I left Miami 30 years ago, King Tides did not flood S Miami...now they do.
@Neoerectus I saw a youtube doc a few years ago how entire areas of Miami have been built up to escape those tides.
Neoerectus · M
@NativePortlander1970 They have raised roadbeds, BUT oolite limestone is porous. Walls will NOT stop the rise. I was a state's forester for Dade and Monroe Counties years ago.

At first there will be islands, but in time the sea rise will overcome it all. half of southern Florida will go under water. Frankly, no more restoration funds should be spent in the Everglades.

 
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