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SatanBurger @
Thinkerbell Dr. John Mearsheimer, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago, made a good point: if you want to determine who won a war, you must first examine the objectives.
Since Israel was the aggressor, their stated goals define the standard of success.Objective 1: Destroy Iran’s nuclear program.This objective has clearly
failed. Iran still maintains several functioning nuclear facilities. Iran's only nuclear power plant, Bushehr, is fully operational and according to Putin, there's are contracts to build 2 more Nuclear power plants, that will ceratinly use Uranium enriched in Iran. Despite Trump’s claim that Iran’s nuclear capability was “obliterated,” the fact is Iran moved its 60% enriched uranium out of harm’s way. And this is evident because there was no radioactive fallout. The uranium didn’t just vanish.
Also, many of Iran’s centrifuges were relocated, a process that started in March. Moreover, there is no credible evidence that the Fordow facility was destroyed. It’s buried deep in a mountain, the mountain is very much intact, and according to Iran, only the entrances and exits were hit.
The kicker is Iran has now reportedly expelled the IAEA and may be withdrawing from the NPT entirely. So, far from being decimated, their program is more defiant and more active than before.
Objective 2: Trigger internal revolt or regime change.
That plan
backfired. Not only did they
fail to turn the Iranian population against the Iranian government, the Israeli and U.S. actions have unified them against external enemies. Across Iran, people poured into the streets. They weren't chanting for regime change, but chanting “
Death to Israel” and “Death to America.”
Objective 3: Force an unconditional surrender.Trump claimed that the U.S. and Israel would accept nothing less than unconditional surrender. That was
never going to happen. As Mearsheimer pointed out, no country has ever surrendered as a result of an air campaign alone. We couldn't achieve it in Iraq or Syria without boots on the ground, and neither could Israel, even with U.S. support.
When you measure the results against the objectives, it becomes clear: Israel lost this war.
