If ever you've arrived at an assumption...

You must be reading my mind. Same thoughts I've had on my mind recently. 😁

I seek to understand, it's important to me, so I look for the underlying/truth. Although I have strong convictions.
Cognitive bias's are huge and we can get stuck in them.

Fact finding expositions can still be very biased people tend to find/select facts that support their position and become further entrenched in what is still primarily an assumption.

I like to use The Baloney Detection Kit.

Think of the kit as a checklist of challenges for yourself when evaluating new or suspect information. As with all exercises, repetition will make you stronger and better. Carl Sagan lays out the steps:

1. Wherever possible there must be independent confirmation of the “facts.”

2. Encourage substantive debate on the evidence by knowledgeable proponents of all points of view.

3. Arguments from authority carry little weight—“authorities” have made mistakes in the past. They will do so again in the future. Perhaps a better way to say it is that in science there are no authorities; at most, there are experts.

4. Spin more than one hypothesis. If there’s something to be explained, think of all the different ways in which it could be explained. Then think of tests by which you might systematically disprove each of the alternatives. What survives, the hypothesis that resists disproof in this Darwinian selection among “multiple working hypotheses,” has a much better chance of being the right answer than if you had simply run with the first idea that caught your fancy.

5. Try not to get overly attached to a hypothesis just because it’s yours. It’s only a way-station in the pursuit of knowledge. Ask yourself why you like the idea. Compare it fairly with the alternatives. See if you can find reasons for rejecting it. If you don’t, others will.

6. Quantify. If whatever it is you’re explaining has some measure, some numerical quantity attached to it, you’ll be much better able to discriminate among competing hypotheses. What is vague and qualitative is open to many explanations. Of course there are truths to be sought in the many qualitative issues we are obliged to confront, but finding them is more challenging.

7. If there’s a chain of argument, every link in the chain must work (including the premise)—not just most of them.

8.Occam’s Razor. This convenient rule-of-thumb urges us when faced with two hypotheses that explain the data equally well to choose the simpler.

9. Always ask whether the hypothesis can be, at least in principle, falsified. Propositions that are untestable, unfalsifiable are not worth much. Consider the grand idea that our Universe and everything in it is just an elementary particle—an electron, say—in a much bigger Cosmos. But if we can never acquire information from outside our Universe, is not the idea incapable of disproof? You must be able to check assertions out. Inveterate skeptics must be given the chance to follow your reasoning, to duplicate your experiments and see if they get the same result.

I challenge my own assumptions more aggressively than those of others

But .... my assumptions usually turn out to be quite accurate

First; I try NOT to assume and don't make it my own until I have researched it.

When I get a gut feeling, I still don't hold onto it, and if I do, even for a short while, I have to find out WHY I am have this intuitive response.

I don't take what anyone says as truth. I believe ultimate truth cannot be said but must be "caught", not taught.

Good questions. Maybe some brains around here will start working...thanks!!!!

FACTS. Lord it annoys the bejeesus outta me when people take their own assumptions as gospel truth. 🙄

I usually need more evidence than my gut feeling...

I like to do a bit of research. I've learned that here. I can hear something, and I can believe it's true, and I can turn that into my own assumptions, but this platform, (SW), is filled with the terminally lazy who will demand proofs, links, etc. etc. And they will usually sneer and disbelieve them anyway.

I can come up with a dozen links to "prove" what I feel to be true is true, (and I am NEVER thanked for all of that work), and I can certainly support my allegations or assumptions, but one thing I can never do is make some idiot believe me.

I have three levels.
1)Theory about what is probably right.
2)Knowing that I have it right.
3)Able to prove that I am right.
I can get the gut instinct that I have something right but I'm willing to accept and admit I called it wrong should this prove to be the case.

For me it's a trust but verify.. I give everyone the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise. So many things can be up for interpretation, are they being taken out of context, in a bad mood, am I is a bad headspace, am I making assumptions based on my past experiences, etc. That said, your gut should always be heard. The subconscious is the greater quantum brain. It always runs algorithms in the background and tries to protect you from your ego and intellect, which operates in a cause/effect linear and abstract capacity. Great for solving problems, not great for experiencing the world in a comprehensive and direct way through all the senses. That's the way I see it.. but my life is pretty wacky, and I've done just about everything the wrong way at some point in my life, so your milage may very.

I over think it
Over analyze it
Seek facts
Try to take the emotion out of what I think it is

Sometimes the only way forward is to act on assumptions until facts are known... As long as you can remember it is an assumption

If you're asking about the sorts of beliefs that add up to whole paradigms, then I consider stable, long-term beliefs to be nothing more than recreational mental illness regardless of how much verisimilitude they may appear to have.

If you're asking about beliefs insofar as these can be used as tools to assist with case-by-case decisions, then I'll seek facts (though not necessarily to "support" whatever I might be intuitively inclined toward), but it depends on how much time there is before needing to act on whatever I've got.

I like to check things out if I get a gut feeling, usually the gut feeling has relevance to it. Even better are vivid lucid dreams that reveals something.

Im a fact seeker. Less chance of being wrong

I have my own world of assumptions so I keep googling things up to check its true or not. 😂

Not sure which I've arrived at more.....assumptions or crossroads.

It could be I suck at assumptions but, depending on what type of "atmosphere" or scenario I find myself in, I'm more prone to follow my gut.

Awareness is everything. To hesitate at the wrong moment can be ummm, hazardous to yer health.

Nothing happens without proof

Depends if I am highly emotional at the time. I try not to get into highly emotional state, because I can assume without facts if I do.
I end up looking like an ass and I don't particularly like looking like an ass.
Plenty of ways to avoid it one is to wait and think...

I tend to trust my instincts but if I see something that changes that, I will go with it. If it's a bad feeling, I'd rather be proven wrong than keep the negative about something.

If it's about other people, I just get more observant without needing to say anything to anyone about it and without needing to dig deeper into it.
If it's about something I can't prove, I'll just let it be.

Intellectually I try to do the former.

All too often viscerally I fall into the trap of the latter.

My assumptions and gut feelings have an uncanny ability to be extremely accurate.
I listen to them often. It takes effort to keep that "open mind" door open.

Gut feeling is enough for me to avoid something.

But to accept something, regardless of what my gut says I do seek facts.[center][/center]

I become a detective even thought I hate to assume, it’s hard.

Trust issues.

I`ve had my share of being proved wrong by doing assumptions. Life and experience are wonderful teachers. ;)

Deep question ... compliments ... I did not realize how thought provoking!

If it is important in any way, I try to seek the reasons and information that must be there within me, as what I feel/thought is the result of some highly prepressed information and my life experience. So, I must rule out why that idea/thought came into my mind, if it's important. Many times it becomes difficult because I don't have a good memory or can't give much time and thought to it, then I mostly try to express it with a doubt, as I am not yet sure about it.

Kind of hard to prove "change" does not exist! 🙃

I consult the the Magic 8 Ball. All signs point to Ham.

[youtube=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfvTwv5o1Qs]

I usually trust my gut

I have, and when I ignore them, terrible things happen

Is that somewhere in Arizona?