Finland's neutrality was in the face of the USSR under Josef Stalin, and was still not enough to protect her from losing some of her territory to the Soviet Empire.
Putin has already threatened dire consequences for Finland if she tried to join NATO, but I don't think Putin has stated what those consequences would be. In fact he has been playing his cards close to his chest all along, not even really stating his aims in invading the Ukraine. Most of his statements are so absurd as to be merely cruel propaganda for domestic control, and his real reasons and their background are only being elicited by military experts and historians.
Would he use nuclear weapons (not that horrible slang "nukes", please - it's too serious for that)? Hard to know. He is ruthless, amoral and inhumane enough to do so but he is also sly and cunning, and might think it a step too far if only for propaganda reasons. ]
If any NATO country were to become involved in military action officially,the war would spread far beyond the Ukraine and Putin would be far less queasy about using nuclear weapons - not, probably, would the USA.
Allegedly the Russian arsenal includes so-called "battlefield nuclear weapons", but when you consider how a nuclear bomb works, it's difficult to imagine what one of those might be whose range is limited to the small area of immediate action.
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It's worth studying a decent atlas, perhaps helped by Google Earth's satellite photographs, to help understand the strategic reasons for President Putin wanting either to absorb Ukraine into Russia or to leave her independent but neutral and unarmed.
First, why did Russian invade Ukraine 8 years ago, to seize the Crimea?
The Crimea holds the major Black Sea port city of Sevastopol, and has direct links to Russia by road and rail bridges over the Kersch Strait that links the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov. The Strait and Azov waters give part of the border between SE Ukraine and the Russian province of Yuzhnyy, whose city of Rostov is on the NE Azov coast.
This waterway is too short and narrow to be obvious on an atlas map but the Google pictures show clearly it and the two pairs of viaducts (using an island in mid-channel).
So the Russian Federation now has major, ex-Ukrainian, naval and commercial harbours on the Black Sea; with a road and railway directly to Russian land.
The Ukraine though still has sizeable lengths of coast on both Seas, including the important port city of Odessa on the Black, also Mariupol on the Azov. Taking over Ukraine's Azov coast would give the Russian Federation a slightly shorter route from Moscow to the Black Sea.
To the West, Ukraine borders, from S to N:
- Romania, interrupted by the small, land-locked Moldova (hard to see why Putin might want the latter, strategically, except to fill that gap in the border with Romania);
- Hungary;
- The Slovak Republic;
- Poland, which also abuts Belarus.
Ukraine's Northern borders are Belarus (Russia's ally) and Russia's Tsentralnyy province, which holds Moscow. The remaining border is that with Yuzhnyy, to the East.
So half of the Ukrainian border is against those of Russia and Belarus, whose rulers have now made themselves Ukraine's enemies, and themselves international pariahs. (Not that they care personally as long as others carry the can).
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Vladimir Putin seems though to have made two mistakes in believing his own propaganda.
The first obviously is thinking this would be a quick, simple military operation and his troops would be welcomed by the Ukrainians.
The other is believing that he is "liberating" from "Nazi" rulers those Ukrainians he sees as Russian simply because they speak Russian. He appears not to know that many, if not most, Ukrainians - including their elected, Jewish, President - speak both Ukrainian and Russian anyway. Some also speak at least some English or other foreign language.
The two nations have long and difficult histories, and the Ukrainians were among those who suffered very deeply from Hitler and even worse, Stalin; but Putin appears to ignore that. He picks only those bits of history that suit his all-Russia myth. He has even dredged up events from 1000 years ago, before there was a country called "Russia"!
