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Economic doom and gloom story..But is it true?

Poll - Total Votes: 13
The American economy is toast and its going to hurt me..
Nothing to see here folks. Its all good..
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This is just another of those "American Economy is Toast" AI generated clips. Some facts I know to be real. Some I am not so sure. I am interested any ANY points of view based on personal experience of what is happening in America today.. I am NOT interested in pro or anti left or right comments, which will be deleted.. This is about the economics. Not the politics.. "Just the facts, Ma'am" 😷
[media=https://youtu.be/oMoXTCW77b4]
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Watch what the smart money is doing. Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway, AKA his investment firm, has about $250 billion in equities (stock) vs $340 billion in cash equivalents.

This is much more cash than he usually carries. Investors do this (sell stock, buy T bills) when they expect the stock market to fall substantially, and intend to buy stocks after they drop.

Buffett Indicator, which compares the total market capitalization of a country's stock market to its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A high ratio, especially when exceeding 200%, is seen by Buffett as a sign that the market is overvalued, potentially signaling "playing with fire". Another "rule" associated with Buffett is his 90/10 strategy, which suggests allocating 90% of your portfolio to a low-cost S&P 500 index fund and 10% to short-term government bonds.

current Buffet indicator is 210% to 220%. Buffet is putting his money where his mouth is.

whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M
@ElwoodBlues He has been selling and hardly buying for over a year now. He even offloaded some Apple shares. The stock he said he would never sell..😷
@whowasthatmaskedman Yeah, but the silver lining is Buffet expects to buy back into the market after the anticipated drop. A vote of no confidence for the current state of the economy, but a vote of confidence for the further future.
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jehova · 36-40, M
@ElwoodBlues how’s does this ratio compare to the stock market crash of the 1930s?
whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M
@jehova Raw data says this crash SHOULD be measurably worse.. BUT... The market isnt what the market was. So there are mitigating factors that muddy the comparison. First, the day trader phenomenon influences the market now, in fact when you throw the hedge funds and derivatives into the mix, the investment market may no longer be the major player. Second, the computer triggered buy/sell programs that populate financial institutions are another wild card.. They alone have been responsible for runs on the market before..Having said all that. Its going to be bad. BUT. Bad like a bus going off a cliff? Or bad like falling down a long flight of stairs and htting every step on the way down? With all those extra factors, I just dont know..😷
@jehova I'm not an economist, but the theory as I understand it is that the 1929 stock crash triggered a domino effect of bank failures and those were the real problem. So things like the Federal Reserve, FDIC, and various regulations protect against that domino effect.
jehova · 36-40, M
@ElwoodBlues so the cushion at the bottom of the market fall is fully inflated?, at least there’s that. Even so the market players that need to go belly up in order for a true reform, reset and recovery to occur are not going to be wiped out so is this cushioned fall a better outcome than a complete collapse? Idk prolly just more of the same!
whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M
@ElwoodBlues Quite so.. And now, there is way more debt and way less substance in the market than there was in '29. So once the avalanche starts, there will be less to stop it.😷
jehova · 36-40, M
@whowasthatmaskedman the USA is too big to fail; more like too big to work/function! I think so. Maybe each state should/will do its own thing? I would love to see the North American Union be the final outcome. Disband the federal military waste. The federal legislature is out of touch with state interests anyway; and simply start over with zero debt. title IX bankruptcy change our name and try again!
The us is barely paying its debt anyway. Screw it!
whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M
@jehova Fantastic idea. Just pay back the $150,000.00 that is your share of the foreigh debt and we can start tomorrow. Yes. I am being sarcastic.. Except for the fact that the number is correct. And China, Japan Saudi Arabia and others arent going to just write off all that money. No more than a loan shark will..😷
jehova · 36-40, M
@whowasthatmaskedman 150 trillion? Not 150 thousand. Eh
jehova · 36-40, M
@whowasthatmaskedman further if Elon musk or Amazon paid a fair share in taxes that’d be 10 trillion of the bill. Hence most of the world has a flat tax no exceptions.
whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M
@jehova Small point of order. Musks wealth currently is around one trillion dollars (more or less) He. Jeff Bezos and Bill gates combined wouldnt make a dent in what America owes the rest of the world. Thats what is going to finish America. Not what you do to each orther.. 😷
jehova · 36-40, M
@whowasthatmaskedman a flat tax on the 100s of trillions of dollars those three account for would put a dent in the debt not much perhaps but a dent none the less. Further I foresee Americas downfall being accelerated by djt so idk what if anything is going to soften Americas fall but doing
Nothing will help the least.
jehova · 36-40, M
@whowasthatmaskedman idk what musk currently pays in income tax to South Africa (his country of birth)but is he paying 30% in America? I earn less that 50k and I pay 35% ish so obviously something doesn’t add up
whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M
@jehova There is no doubt that trump has accelerated spending and increased the US deficit. But more importantly he has destroyed the US trade position globally and that will lead to the $US being abandoned as the reserve trade currency. That in turn could halve the value of the $US against other currencies over time. (It will take years to fall) While without trump the US would still have declined, it would have been more the "Business as usual" event..😷
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jehova · 36-40, M
@whowasthatmaskedman it’s true it will not be pretty and it’s already unavoidable