Assessment of UK autumn budget

No huge headlines, everyone seems marginally disappointed, financial markets have not (yet) blown up . . all in all to be judged a success 👍

Difficult to detect a unifying theme. The government pins hopes on facilitating economic growth and using higher tax receipts to rebuild our public services after 14 years of neglect. But the medium term forecast for growth is modest at best.

There is a marked redistribution of wealth from older asset owners to the struggling young via increases to the minimum wage, increases in capital gains tax, and freezing of the inheritance tax thresholds. A good start and hopefully the foundation of a more radical shift in inter-generational wealth that will be needed to preserve harmony in a rapidly ageing society.

Lots of compromises, lots of disappointments, but nothing unexpected for a centrist government.

A pretty good effort for our first ever female Chancellor of the Exchequer 👍

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72andy · 51-55, M

The truth is every change in government except the 1997 labour win appears to have inherited a financial black hole. The only difference is how you decide to fund these figures which politicians seem to make up on the spot.
One could argue that given the state of finances in 2010, and the cost of the Covid crisis, and Brexit, the last government did a reasonable job at keeping it to 22bn.
History will tell us it’s the world financial situation that has the highest affect on national finances.
My biggest upset with a son who wished to take over my father’s farm is that the change in inheritance tax relief will cause most small family farms to become unviable. For a farm to be viable you need over 500 acres, and with land prices at 10k an acre within machinery being so expensive even a 50 acre farm with a decent yard is going to go over the threshold, Despite what the chancellor claims. Of course the big business landowners, who they initially claimed to be targeting will find ways around it as they always have. The small asset rich but cash poor farms will be potentially wiped out by this policy that is clearly aimed at the less well off end of the market. As the only way of ever paying it is to sell land.

SunshineGirl · 36-40, F

@72andy I have been an opponent of austerity for the past 14 years. It made no economic sense not to borrow while the cost of borrowing was near zero. Government finances are quite different to household finances, irrespective of the line taken by Osbourne. Now we have increased inequality and ill health dragging on productivity, and crumbling infrastructure and inherited liabilities (such as infected blood compensation) that cost much more to rectify.

The IHT is interesting. The issue is that many non-farmers have piled into the land market for a variety of reasons, none of which are related to food production. The price of agricultural land has rocketed and is beyond the reach of most young farmers without inherited wealth, so again a drag on growth. If the partial lifting of relief brings more land to the market and depresses prices, that will be positive. But may require some tinkering to avoid breaking up productive farms. Some of my clients have included upland Exmoor producers. Farming is too precarious to provide a living and all have diversified into tourism, environmental management, etc.