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Assessment of UK autumn budget

No huge headlines, everyone seems marginally disappointed, financial markets have not (yet) blown up . . all in all to be judged a success 👍

Difficult to detect a unifying theme. The government pins hopes on facilitating economic growth and using higher tax receipts to rebuild our public services after 14 years of neglect. But the medium term forecast for growth is modest at best.

There is a marked redistribution of wealth from older asset owners to the struggling young via increases to the minimum wage, increases in capital gains tax, and freezing of the inheritance tax thresholds. A good start and hopefully the foundation of a more radical shift in inter-generational wealth that will be needed to preserve harmony in a rapidly ageing society.

Lots of compromises, lots of disappointments, but nothing unexpected for a centrist government.

A pretty good effort for our first ever female Chancellor of the Exchequer 👍
72andy · 51-55, M
The truth is every change in government except the 1997 labour win appears to have inherited a financial black hole. The only difference is how you decide to fund these figures which politicians seem to make up on the spot.
One could argue that given the state of finances in 2010, and the cost of the Covid crisis, and Brexit, the last government did a reasonable job at keeping it to 22bn.
History will tell us it’s the world financial situation that has the highest affect on national finances.
My biggest upset with a son who wished to take over my father’s farm is that the change in inheritance tax relief will cause most small family farms to become unviable. For a farm to be viable you need over 500 acres, and with land prices at 10k an acre within machinery being so expensive even a 50 acre farm with a decent yard is going to go over the threshold, Despite what the chancellor claims. Of course the big business landowners, who they initially claimed to be targeting will find ways around it as they always have. The small asset rich but cash poor farms will be potentially wiped out by this policy that is clearly aimed at the less well off end of the market. As the only way of ever paying it is to sell land.
SunshineGirl · 36-40, F
@72andy I have been an opponent of austerity for the past 14 years. It made no economic sense not to borrow while the cost of borrowing was near zero. Government finances are quite different to household finances, irrespective of the line taken by Osbourne. Now we have increased inequality and ill health dragging on productivity, and crumbling infrastructure and inherited liabilities (such as infected blood compensation) that cost much more to rectify.

The IHT is interesting. The issue is that many non-farmers have piled into the land market for a variety of reasons, none of which are related to food production. The price of agricultural land has rocketed and is beyond the reach of most young farmers without inherited wealth, so again a drag on growth. If the partial lifting of relief brings more land to the market and depresses prices, that will be positive. But may require some tinkering to avoid breaking up productive farms. Some of my clients have included upland Exmoor producers. Farming is too precarious to provide a living and all have diversified into tourism, environmental management, etc.
MartinII · 70-79, M
It's a reactionary budget and a reactionary government, in the strict sense of that word. It seems as if we are going back to the late 1960s. If that's what you want, fair enough.

And I'm sorry, but what on earth is the relevance of Reeves being the first female Chancellor? Any more than it is relevant that Badenoch is the fourth female leader of the Conservative Party. Haven't we grown out of that?
jefferson · M
@ArtieKat im not a troll, i made a statement if you odnt agree with it, so wjhat, its democracy,
SunshineGirl · 36-40, F
@MartinII Economics is usually most effective when it reacts to markets and trends rather than tries to direct them. I'd personally like a far more radical redistribution of wealth and a government led industrial strategy. But I am a realist and look for positives in what is possible.

There are few women who make a successful career in economics, and fewer still in finance owing to nepotism, prejudice and simple misogyny. I should know, I have been trying for the best part of 15 years. When a woman has success in this sector, it is a cause of celebration among some of us.
MartinII · 70-79, M
@SunshineGirl Governments of all parties have been announcing industrial strategies throughout my adult life, without making much impact. They are usually little more than words, and often the same ones.
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SunshineGirl · 36-40, F
@jshm2 Well, we have to start somewhere. Means-testing the winter fuel allowance for pensioners was a symbolic first step and I am glad they did not back down in the face of great criticism.
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TheSpectator · 31-35, M
The losers:

Anyone holding shares (great for investment in the Country), farmers, inheritance tax payers and increased NI payment which will no doubt be passed down to employees.
jefferson · M
@TheSpectator ni increase is theonly way to get big companies to pay any tax at all
TheSpectator · 31-35, M
@jefferson Sure........
ArtieKat · M
all in all to be judged a success 👍
Only time will tell. I tend to side with the sceptics who think that wages of employees of SMEs will stagnate, inflation will rise again as SMEs are unable to absorb the increased costs of NMW and Employers' NI and raise prices. Look forward to the £10 pint.

With Social Care and GP surgeries not exempt from those same rises, staff numbers will be cut - with some surgeries and homes predicted to close in the short-term - adding pressure back on to the NHS, with elderly patients unable to be discharged from hospital.
SunshineGirl · 36-40, F
@ArtieKat Hopefully there will not be another supply-side shock on the scale of 2022-23, although that is a big hope.

Money is being put into the pockets of the poorest, who it is assumed will spend it immediately on daily necessities where market competition is already most intense. The rapid circulation of wealth into the economy, rather than savings accounts and pension pots, will drive growth and support jobs. On the other hand, private rents may be driven upwards if we are unable to match demand with supply.

If inflation remains under control, wages should become more stable (one of the biggest costs in the Budget was a pay settlement so public sector workers did not fall further behind private sector counterparts).
ArtieKat · M
@SunshineGirl I remain on the side of the sceptics - particularly after reading further analysis in the Sunday Times this morning
Picklebobble2 · 56-60, M
Well Reeves was on a hiding to nothing the second she took the job.
There never was a magic button to fill the hole in the economy.

Labour's 'deceit' was that they had BOTH eyes on the prize of government while not being entirely honest on just how they would address filling such a hole without upsetting somebody.

The fact Reeves chose to upset everyone as equally as she could rather than pick on sections of society that wouldn't vote Labour at any price (the traditional Tory route) to rinse for the lions share, was pretty good.

The IMF and the bank of England seem 'relatively' happy but both are worried that any growth in the current Parliament is unlikely.
And it's how you move on from that position to one of better investment in the UK that occupies most independent economic thinking.
SunshineGirl · 36-40, F
@Picklebobble2 Such is the lot of a politician. The Budget is a muddle and a compromise, as any democratic financial plan should be. But it is at least looking to the longer term (which we haven't done for ages) and there are people in government with independent ideas . . for when the time is right.
jefferson · M
on my day we only cared about the price of booze and cigarettes, well this time draught beer wet downin tax, amazing and tobacoo up
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
They've come on for criticism because they didn't make the case for tax rises. In fact they said they were not going to do any.

However, I support this budget.
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@OldBrit I've said I support the budget and my point is about tactics, not semantics.

They will come under sustained attack from the right over this and it would have been easier if they'd made the case for taxes prior to the election.
OldBrit · 61-69, M
@Burnley123 don't disagree just they thought they wouldn't win. Which is daft as they would the tories were toast.
SunshineGirl · 36-40, F
@Burnley123 Possibly, but I wonder if the debate over semantics has taken the steam out of that particular controversy. In 2020 the Tories increased VAT by 2.5% points with barely a whisper of opposition.

 
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