NATO prepares for a post-America alliance
NATO prepares for a post-America alliance.
By Avery Lotz/Axios
More than just "a big, beautiful Ocean," in President Trump's words, separates the U.S. from its European allies on the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The big picture: The Trump administration has cast a shadow of doubt not only across embattled Kyiv, but across an entire continent that has trusted the U.S. for decades as its most powerful protector and partner.
Trump smearing President Zelensky as a "dictator without elections" brought the U.S.-Ukraine relationship to a new low — and the U.S.-Europe marriage to a fork in the road.
The verbal spat followed U.S.-Russia talks on Ukraine in Saudi Arabia, with no seats at the table for Ukrainian or European voices.
As the war enters its fourth year, the U.S. is no longer aligned with the Ukrainian cause or with its NATO allies, and European leaders are bracing for a post-U.S. alliance.
Driving the news: Friedrich Merz, the center-right leader poised to become Germany's new chancellor, said after Sunday's election victory that his "priority ... will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible" to "achieve real independence from the USA."
A coalition of pro-European political parties in the European Parliament, in a joint statement issued Tuesday, attested that Europe can "no longer fully rely on the United States to defend our shared values and interests" and it is "high time for Europe to step up its own security."
Those once-unthinkable statements from conservatives and progressives alike mirror calls from French President Emmanuel Macron, who is visiting Washington on Monday, for European "strategic autonomy."
Many leaders in Europe didn't take that concept seriously in Trump's first term — but they are now, amid the largest-scale conflict in Europe since World War II.
State of play: Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who will also visit Trump this week, are among the several European leaders who have signaled they're prepared to boost defense spending as Trump steps back.
Starmer has committed to putting boots on the ground if necessary to "guarantee Ukraine's security" — while noting that, "U.S. support will remain critical."
European leaders have been discussing a potential post-war "reassurance force" to be deployed to Ukraine to deter against renewed Russian aggression, AP reported.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made clear U.S. troops would not take part in any such mission, but Trump expressed openness to the European security force idea in a call with Zelensky, Axios' Barak Ravid reported.
Yes, but: While that's a "plausible plan," the lack of clear messaging from Washington — and Trump's occasional parroting of Kremlin talking points — risks "torpedoing" hopes of a favorable deal to end the war, says Daniel Fried, the former US ambassador to Poland and assistant secretary of State for Europe.
Instead of arguing from a position of strength and forcing the Russians to step back, it starts to resemble some kind of deal by which Ukraine is subordinate to the US-Russian understanding," Fried contends.
Trump has repeatedly attacked Zelensky, insisted there should be elections in Ukraine, and reportedly opposed a G7 statement that described Russia as the aggressor in Ukraine.
On Monday, the U.S. was one of just 18 countries that opposed a UN resolution that referred to Russia as the "aggressor."
Between the lines: Led by Vice President Vance, the Trump administration has effectively accused Europe of freeloading on American strength for decades.
They will welcome the idea of Europe investing more in its own security, though the growing transAtlantic divide is likely to produce tensions as well.
What to watch: European allies have conceded they will struggle to make up the gap in supplying Ukraine, let alone ensuring the security of the entire continent.
By Avery Lotz/Axios
More than just "a big, beautiful Ocean," in President Trump's words, separates the U.S. from its European allies on the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The big picture: The Trump administration has cast a shadow of doubt not only across embattled Kyiv, but across an entire continent that has trusted the U.S. for decades as its most powerful protector and partner.
Trump smearing President Zelensky as a "dictator without elections" brought the U.S.-Ukraine relationship to a new low — and the U.S.-Europe marriage to a fork in the road.
The verbal spat followed U.S.-Russia talks on Ukraine in Saudi Arabia, with no seats at the table for Ukrainian or European voices.
As the war enters its fourth year, the U.S. is no longer aligned with the Ukrainian cause or with its NATO allies, and European leaders are bracing for a post-U.S. alliance.
Driving the news: Friedrich Merz, the center-right leader poised to become Germany's new chancellor, said after Sunday's election victory that his "priority ... will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible" to "achieve real independence from the USA."
A coalition of pro-European political parties in the European Parliament, in a joint statement issued Tuesday, attested that Europe can "no longer fully rely on the United States to defend our shared values and interests" and it is "high time for Europe to step up its own security."
Those once-unthinkable statements from conservatives and progressives alike mirror calls from French President Emmanuel Macron, who is visiting Washington on Monday, for European "strategic autonomy."
Many leaders in Europe didn't take that concept seriously in Trump's first term — but they are now, amid the largest-scale conflict in Europe since World War II.
State of play: Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who will also visit Trump this week, are among the several European leaders who have signaled they're prepared to boost defense spending as Trump steps back.
Starmer has committed to putting boots on the ground if necessary to "guarantee Ukraine's security" — while noting that, "U.S. support will remain critical."
European leaders have been discussing a potential post-war "reassurance force" to be deployed to Ukraine to deter against renewed Russian aggression, AP reported.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made clear U.S. troops would not take part in any such mission, but Trump expressed openness to the European security force idea in a call with Zelensky, Axios' Barak Ravid reported.
Yes, but: While that's a "plausible plan," the lack of clear messaging from Washington — and Trump's occasional parroting of Kremlin talking points — risks "torpedoing" hopes of a favorable deal to end the war, says Daniel Fried, the former US ambassador to Poland and assistant secretary of State for Europe.
Instead of arguing from a position of strength and forcing the Russians to step back, it starts to resemble some kind of deal by which Ukraine is subordinate to the US-Russian understanding," Fried contends.
Trump has repeatedly attacked Zelensky, insisted there should be elections in Ukraine, and reportedly opposed a G7 statement that described Russia as the aggressor in Ukraine.
On Monday, the U.S. was one of just 18 countries that opposed a UN resolution that referred to Russia as the "aggressor."
Between the lines: Led by Vice President Vance, the Trump administration has effectively accused Europe of freeloading on American strength for decades.
They will welcome the idea of Europe investing more in its own security, though the growing transAtlantic divide is likely to produce tensions as well.
What to watch: European allies have conceded they will struggle to make up the gap in supplying Ukraine, let alone ensuring the security of the entire continent.
