Turkey readies to invade Syria

@4meAndyou That won't be happening fully for a while.

Even if you negated Turkey, the US, Israel, China, Russia and Iran from the balance of the equation, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham is a coalition in and of itself that has to negotiate with other coalitions within Syria (such as the Kurds, the YPG is just a Marxist political party, other Kurdish political units exist) and the Druze, and ISIS still exists.

In the US, whenever you have a slight majority of just a handful of representatives, one to a few figure out they have a unique bargaining position and start pushing for greater gains out of proportion to the others, without respecting cognitive concepts like the authority of whoever things they deserve that idea applied to them the most, and exploiting both formal and informal rules that allows the system to carry itself out.

HTS has shown Machiavellian restraint for the moment. Alot of hurt feelings exist on both sides, and someone is going to want more, and someone is going to want justice, and that justice is going to come in the form of revenge instead of torts. Corruption will be through the roof. Alot of atuff will disintergrate, unless HTS and Kurdish hit squads start taking down these elements. The people seeking to do these vile acts will instictively know this and will buikd up their base and alliances amoungst other commanders. A sort of nobility will arise, and they will be the old guard in 30 years when a new generation of political leaders form in Syria. In China they have a bunch of Little Pinks running around 3rd and 4th generation descendants of this old guard. China had totalitarianism and critical mass to force supreme homogenity. Syria doesn't have that population or a monolithic religion or ideology to achieve that. It's gonna be a land of backstabbing and explosions and militia insurrections for decades to come. It's quite predictable.

HTS is likely looking at China or Turkey for rapid arms importation to build a strong centralized army fast to reduce this to some degree. Biden is too stupid to pick up on this, or listen, and Trump wants nothing to do with Syria due to lack of apparent immediate gains, and russia is evacuating it's troops via a civilian shipping fleet right now, so I have my doubts it will become a weapons supplier, though Syria will inherit alot of old stock russian and iranian weapons that will need to be serviced. But alot of countries can service that.

@Dignaga Truly a mess. I DO know that Trump doesn't want to get involved. He has stated that it is not OUR fight. However, if Erdogan attempts to take US held oil fields in Syria, it will become our fight.

I fear that Erdogan will be the next Putin. He will attempt to invade a country not his own, and NATO won't make a move to stop it. More war.

@4meAndyou Trump will see it as a loss and ceed it to Erdogan. But Erdogan won't try it under Trump, he would try it under Biden. Hence the military buildup at the border. The campaign needs to be done in a month. Russia will distract Trump only so much, as the state department has sub departments for each region and nation.

@Jokersswild If jt comes down between Turkey or Israel, IF and ONLY IF (IFF) we had to choose, we would back Turkey. Default. I don't care how big the pro-Israel lobby is, and I'm part of it. NATO matters more, and Turkey is in a strategic position Israel is not geography wise, and Israel is off in no man's land. Turkey just matters a whole lot more to NATO over the next 500 years.

@Dignaga Do you really think so? That’s an interesting perspective. Turkey is certainly more valuable than Israel, but within the US, we have neocons who I find hard to believe would ever turn their backs on Israel. The situation with the EU might be different.