Turkey readies to invade Syria
[media=https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RgT0CjoIfxI]
Looks like Erdogan is readying a conquest of Kurdish and US areas.
Looks like Erdogan is readying a conquest of Kurdish and US areas.
This page is a permanent link to the reply below and its nested replies. See all post replies »
4meAndyou · F
I heard that the rebels who took OVER Syria were backed by Turkey.
I sincerely hope that Turkey does NOT launch a military campaign into Kurdish territory. The Kurds have been persecuted and chased out of Iraq, and I just don't know where they could go if Turkey chased them out of Syria.
I sincerely hope that Turkey does NOT launch a military campaign into Kurdish territory. The Kurds have been persecuted and chased out of Iraq, and I just don't know where they could go if Turkey chased them out of Syria.
@4meAndyou That's very common among philosophers from the region. I thought I met a Laz philosopher who was into late byzantine philosophy, and she was pretty anti Turkey (expected), but then started using just blantant racism universally. I had to cut off contact with her, got to be too much.
@4meAndyou We had to choke off Assad's ability to get foreign currency. He switched over to drugs. I figured this out years, years ago when ISIS was first exanding in Iraq and I started to look into what incentives Assad gave Putin. Assad gave Putin 30 year leases on oil lands as agricultural grants. They were allowed to develop oil production there as well, so I couldn't figure out what the agricukture thing was about at first. Then I realized the goal was to flood europe with drugs.
US took the best lands, and Assad instead focused on pushing pills across the middle east. His warehouses have eecently been discovered. I haven't heard russia did this as well, looks like it was just a Assad thing in the end, but they were certainky set up in the beginning for it, had the US not intervened.
US took the best lands, and Assad instead focused on pushing pills across the middle east. His warehouses have eecently been discovered. I haven't heard russia did this as well, looks like it was just a Assad thing in the end, but they were certainky set up in the beginning for it, had the US not intervened.
@4meAndyou Yes, it was strategic, not for finances.
It's called the Conocofields. Russia's Wagner Group tried siezing it with Iran, and the US was heavily outnumbered, and Trump thought WW3 was about to happen. US contacted Russia, Russia said Wagner was a private military company, not alogned with the Russian Federation, and so the US wiped them out.
The oil can't leave Syria save via Turkey, so Erdogan benifits most. What taking those fuelds did was smash Assad's ability to fund his military. It was the straw that broke the camel's back. The second factor was the role previous presidents prior to Biden did in isolating Syria from the international community and increasingly allyong with factions along Iran's logistic route to Assad. Biden is claiming he was responsible, but this goes back decades. It was inevitable.
Israel intergrated itself into the US alliance system, especially the Kurds. They sit counter position to the Arabs. They will likely reach out to the Shia and Christian populations not under the Kurds if they magically regain autonomy as a bulwark against the Sunnis.
It's called the Conocofields. Russia's Wagner Group tried siezing it with Iran, and the US was heavily outnumbered, and Trump thought WW3 was about to happen. US contacted Russia, Russia said Wagner was a private military company, not alogned with the Russian Federation, and so the US wiped them out.
The oil can't leave Syria save via Turkey, so Erdogan benifits most. What taking those fuelds did was smash Assad's ability to fund his military. It was the straw that broke the camel's back. The second factor was the role previous presidents prior to Biden did in isolating Syria from the international community and increasingly allyong with factions along Iran's logistic route to Assad. Biden is claiming he was responsible, but this goes back decades. It was inevitable.
Israel intergrated itself into the US alliance system, especially the Kurds. They sit counter position to the Arabs. They will likely reach out to the Shia and Christian populations not under the Kurds if they magically regain autonomy as a bulwark against the Sunnis.
@4meAndyou Assad isn't against the Christians. He wants to smash the YPG (They are Kurdish Stalinists) and then force all the Syrian refugees back into Syria, likely hoping he can plant them where the Kurds are currently living, but that is unlikely to work.
Many christians fled to the kurds, who were Marxist Athiests who pretended to be Sunni, because they needed the economic manpower and access to more willing fighting troops who would voluntarily enlist in their army. It also made the US (mostly Christian) more friendly to it. Erdogan isn't worried about the christian migrants, he wants the YPG dead. Many civilians will flood into Iraqi Kurdishstan. My memory from back in ISIS times is there is a river between Syrian and Iraqi Kurdistan, and two bridges. It can be walked. You'll have camps set up. Default is most aid will have to come in via Turkey's diyarbakir region. The Shia in Iraq will make somewhat a effort for show but not really. The Iraqi Kurds will cooperate with Erdogan in going after top level YPG while disarming the lower ranks. We might have to get a few westerners out- Erdogan is willing to kill them but low priority as they can't take top leadership roles, and they have western diplomatic access and a route out of theater via their embassies.
Many christians fled to the kurds, who were Marxist Athiests who pretended to be Sunni, because they needed the economic manpower and access to more willing fighting troops who would voluntarily enlist in their army. It also made the US (mostly Christian) more friendly to it. Erdogan isn't worried about the christian migrants, he wants the YPG dead. Many civilians will flood into Iraqi Kurdishstan. My memory from back in ISIS times is there is a river between Syrian and Iraqi Kurdistan, and two bridges. It can be walked. You'll have camps set up. Default is most aid will have to come in via Turkey's diyarbakir region. The Shia in Iraq will make somewhat a effort for show but not really. The Iraqi Kurds will cooperate with Erdogan in going after top level YPG while disarming the lower ranks. We might have to get a few westerners out- Erdogan is willing to kill them but low priority as they can't take top leadership roles, and they have western diplomatic access and a route out of theater via their embassies.
@4meAndyou I could of had my bellybutton hernia fixed in time to go, but the more I was investigating them, more I saw they were still putting up posters of Oculan (the leader of the Kurdish group Erdogan hates). So that's a big factor in it. They kinda fuck themselves in not giving up loyalty to them, despite saying they are strictly divided and have no shared operations.
That being said, I'm positive Turkey set the bombs off in Istanbul a few years back, in order to blame them, and I suspect Erdogan will similarly kill some American troops and blame it on the Kurds. I don't know how Trump will react.
And as to the oil, we are evacuating Iraq, so unles we get staging rights from Turkey, we can't hold the oil fields save via air taxi from a carrier group in the Med. Default we gotta give it up, Trump is likely to favor Kurds, Turkey won't like that because Erdogan can't think long term (he already controls the oil flow and refineries). He will want the syrian sunnis to control them. Trump won't be inherently opposed, but is still likely to support the YPG unless Erdogan can smash them priot to Trump taking office.
That being said, I'm positive Turkey set the bombs off in Istanbul a few years back, in order to blame them, and I suspect Erdogan will similarly kill some American troops and blame it on the Kurds. I don't know how Trump will react.
And as to the oil, we are evacuating Iraq, so unles we get staging rights from Turkey, we can't hold the oil fields save via air taxi from a carrier group in the Med. Default we gotta give it up, Trump is likely to favor Kurds, Turkey won't like that because Erdogan can't think long term (he already controls the oil flow and refineries). He will want the syrian sunnis to control them. Trump won't be inherently opposed, but is still likely to support the YPG unless Erdogan can smash them priot to Trump taking office.
This comment is hidden.
Show Comment
@4meAndyou I supported the annexing of Aleppo by Turkey up until Assad's government collapsed. He effectively killed the region from beimming a kurdish buffer state, so for humantiarian reasons rather they just be under Turkey in the long term.
There are short term and long term humanitarian factors I look at. You don't always play for the short term gain, when the long term gain is far more benificiary on a utilitarian basis to those who will suffer in the short term.
There are short term and long term humanitarian factors I look at. You don't always play for the short term gain, when the long term gain is far more benificiary on a utilitarian basis to those who will suffer in the short term.
@4meAndyou That won't be happening fully for a while.
Even if you negated Turkey, the US, Israel, China, Russia and Iran from the balance of the equation, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham is a coalition in and of itself that has to negotiate with other coalitions within Syria (such as the Kurds, the YPG is just a Marxist political party, other Kurdish political units exist) and the Druze, and ISIS still exists.
In the US, whenever you have a slight majority of just a handful of representatives, one to a few figure out they have a unique bargaining position and start pushing for greater gains out of proportion to the others, without respecting cognitive concepts like the authority of whoever things they deserve that idea applied to them the most, and exploiting both formal and informal rules that allows the system to carry itself out.
HTS has shown Machiavellian restraint for the moment. Alot of hurt feelings exist on both sides, and someone is going to want more, and someone is going to want justice, and that justice is going to come in the form of revenge instead of torts. Corruption will be through the roof. Alot of atuff will disintergrate, unless HTS and Kurdish hit squads start taking down these elements. The people seeking to do these vile acts will instictively know this and will buikd up their base and alliances amoungst other commanders. A sort of nobility will arise, and they will be the old guard in 30 years when a new generation of political leaders form in Syria. In China they have a bunch of Little Pinks running around 3rd and 4th generation descendants of this old guard. China had totalitarianism and critical mass to force supreme homogenity. Syria doesn't have that population or a monolithic religion or ideology to achieve that. It's gonna be a land of backstabbing and explosions and militia insurrections for decades to come. It's quite predictable.
HTS is likely looking at China or Turkey for rapid arms importation to build a strong centralized army fast to reduce this to some degree. Biden is too stupid to pick up on this, or listen, and Trump wants nothing to do with Syria due to lack of apparent immediate gains, and russia is evacuating it's troops via a civilian shipping fleet right now, so I have my doubts it will become a weapons supplier, though Syria will inherit alot of old stock russian and iranian weapons that will need to be serviced. But alot of countries can service that.
Even if you negated Turkey, the US, Israel, China, Russia and Iran from the balance of the equation, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham is a coalition in and of itself that has to negotiate with other coalitions within Syria (such as the Kurds, the YPG is just a Marxist political party, other Kurdish political units exist) and the Druze, and ISIS still exists.
In the US, whenever you have a slight majority of just a handful of representatives, one to a few figure out they have a unique bargaining position and start pushing for greater gains out of proportion to the others, without respecting cognitive concepts like the authority of whoever things they deserve that idea applied to them the most, and exploiting both formal and informal rules that allows the system to carry itself out.
HTS has shown Machiavellian restraint for the moment. Alot of hurt feelings exist on both sides, and someone is going to want more, and someone is going to want justice, and that justice is going to come in the form of revenge instead of torts. Corruption will be through the roof. Alot of atuff will disintergrate, unless HTS and Kurdish hit squads start taking down these elements. The people seeking to do these vile acts will instictively know this and will buikd up their base and alliances amoungst other commanders. A sort of nobility will arise, and they will be the old guard in 30 years when a new generation of political leaders form in Syria. In China they have a bunch of Little Pinks running around 3rd and 4th generation descendants of this old guard. China had totalitarianism and critical mass to force supreme homogenity. Syria doesn't have that population or a monolithic religion or ideology to achieve that. It's gonna be a land of backstabbing and explosions and militia insurrections for decades to come. It's quite predictable.
HTS is likely looking at China or Turkey for rapid arms importation to build a strong centralized army fast to reduce this to some degree. Biden is too stupid to pick up on this, or listen, and Trump wants nothing to do with Syria due to lack of apparent immediate gains, and russia is evacuating it's troops via a civilian shipping fleet right now, so I have my doubts it will become a weapons supplier, though Syria will inherit alot of old stock russian and iranian weapons that will need to be serviced. But alot of countries can service that.
4meAndyou · F
@Dignaga Truly a mess. I DO know that Trump doesn't want to get involved. He has stated that it is not OUR fight. However, if Erdogan attempts to take US held oil fields in Syria, it will become our fight.
I fear that Erdogan will be the next Putin. He will attempt to invade a country not his own, and NATO won't make a move to stop it. More war.
I fear that Erdogan will be the next Putin. He will attempt to invade a country not his own, and NATO won't make a move to stop it. More war.
@4meAndyou Trump will see it as a loss and ceed it to Erdogan. But Erdogan won't try it under Trump, he would try it under Biden. Hence the military buildup at the border. The campaign needs to be done in a month. Russia will distract Trump only so much, as the state department has sub departments for each region and nation.