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Who will win? Let the facts speak for themselves.

Betting odds favor Trump 63% to win.

Based on facts about four swing states:

1. North Carolina: Democrat's voter registration advantage has fallen from 399,000 to 113,000.
2. Pennsylvania: Democrat's voter registration advantage has fallen from 686,000 to 281,000.
3. Arizona: Republicans hold a 259,000 advantage over Democrats.
4.Nevada: Democrat's voter registration advantage has fallen from 111,000 to 45,000.

(Source: Wall Street Journal)
sree251 · 41-45, M
Based on the momentum of Trump supporters who are more fired up now than four years ago, Trump will win the four swing states and take the White House.
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@sree251 But there aren't as many of them.
sree251 · 41-45, M
@LeopoldBloom
But there aren't as many of them.

Mysterious comment. You have nothing to say?
luckranger71 · 51-55, M
Trump is not winning Pennsylvania. He’s in big trouble in NC, GA and FL. Anything can happen, but don’t come back crying fraud and preparing to go to DC on 1/6 if he loses.
@luckranger71 But wait! What?? "come back crying fraud" is the WHOLE game plan🤣😂🤣😂
luckranger71 · 51-55, M
@ElwoodBlues
Trump in a landslide..

But neither side will accept the others victory..
It will drag out for weeks eventually being ruled by SCOTUS that it’s too fraudulant.. and to do it again with paper , no machines, and ID…
sree251 · 41-45, M
@Diotrephes
And if the court tries a power play Congress can impeach them and kick their asses off of the bench.

The role of SCOTUS is to review cases. A US citizen can take Congress to court for violation of the Constitution. If SCOTUS rule against Congress, the decision can not only curb Congress but also open the way for further limitation of power of the legislative branch of the US Government.
Diotrephes · 70-79, M
@sree251
The role of SCOTUS is to review cases. A US citizen can take Congress to court for violation of the Constitution. If SCOTUS rule against Congress, the decision can not only curb Congress but also open the way for further limitation of power of the legislative branch of the US Government.

Please read the federal Constitution. Congress can control the cases the SCOTUS can review unless such cases are specifically mentioned in the Constitution.

Article III
Section 1 Section 2 Section 3

Section 1

The judicial Power of the United States, shall be vested in one supreme Court, and in such inferior Courts as the Congress may from time to time ordain and establish. The Judges, both of the supreme and inferior Courts, shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour, and shall, at stated Times, receive for their Services, a Compensation, which shall not be diminished during their Continuance in Office.


Section 2

The judicial Power shall extend to all Cases, in Law and Equity, arising under this Constitution, the Laws of the United States, and Treaties made, or which shall be made, under their Authority;—to all Cases affecting Ambassadors, other public ministers and Consuls;—to all Cases of admiralty and maritime Jurisdiction;—to Controversies to which the United States shall be a Party;—to Controversies between two or more States;—between a State and Citizens of another State;—between Citizens of different States;—between Citizens of the same State claiming Lands under Grants of different States, and between a State, or the Citizens thereof, and foreign States, Citizens or Subjects.


In all Cases affecting Ambassadors, other public Ministers and Consuls, and those in which a State shall be Party, the supreme Court shall have original Jurisdiction. In all the other Cases before mentioned, the supreme Court shall have appellate Jurisdiction, both as to Law and Fact, with such Exceptions, and under such Regulations as the Congress shall make.


The Trial of all Crimes, except in Cases of Impeachment, shall be by Jury; and such Trial shall be held in the State where the said Crimes shall have been committed; but when not committed within any State, the Trial shall be at such Place or Places as the Congress may by Law have directed.


Section 3

Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying War against them, or in adhering to their Enemies, giving them Aid and Comfort. No Person shall be convicted of Treason unless on the Testimony of two Witnesses to the same overt Act, or on Confession in open Court.

The Congress shall have Power to declare the Punishment of Treason, but no Attainder of Treason shall work Corruption of Blood, or Forfeiture except during the Life of the Person attainted.
https://www.senate.gov/about/origins-foundations/senate-and-constitution/constitution.htm

"Unlike the Supreme Court’s original jurisdiction,1 Article III provides that the Court’s appellate jurisdiction is subject to Exceptions and Regulations prescribed by Congress.2 Congress and the Court have construed this provision, sometimes called the Exceptions Clause, to grant Congress significant control over the Court’s appellate jurisdiction and proceedings. In addition, Congress possesses extensive authority to regulate the jurisdiction of the lower federal courts, and may limit the cases the Supreme Court can hear on appeal by generally stripping the federal courts of jurisdiction over certain cases."
https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artIII-S2-C2-6/ALDE_00013618/#:~:text=In%20addition%2C%20Congr
sree251 · 41-45, M
@Diotrephes
Please read the federal Constitution.

Don't read the Constitution. It's a legal document best read by constitutional lawyers.

We are discussing the US Government. It is comprised of three branches: 1. Executive Branch (enforces laws), 2. Legislative Branch (make laws), and 3. Judicial Branch (interpret laws).

Congress can control the cases the SCOTUS can review unless such cases are specifically mentioned in the Constitution.

SCOTUS review cases submitted to it by any party. It's sole function is to interpret laws and decide if they are consistent with the provision and intent of the Constitution. SCOTUS is the final authority. There is no appeal against SCOTUS decision.
Funny thing: those WSJ numbers don't include INDEPENDENT registrations. Given that independents usually swing elections, that's kind of a significant oversight, wouldn't you say??

Also:

In the seven most contested battleground states, women have cast 55% of ballots so far, while men account for 45%, according to Catalist.

The latest ABC News/Ipsos national poll showed Trump trailing Harris among likely female voters by 14-points – a margin that far outpaces his 6-point lead among men.

“Early vote has been disproportionately female,” Charlie Kirk, president of Turning Point Action, a conservative group responsible for much of Trump’s ground strategy, posted on X. “If men stay at home, Kamala is president. It’s that simple.”

Speaking of Charlie Kirk, let's remember his advice from 2016
sree251 · 41-45, M
@ElwoodBlues
Funny thing: those WSJ numbers don't include INDEPENDENT registrations. Given that independents usually swing elections, that's kind of a significant oversight, wouldn't you say??

Don't you think the betting houses of the world have considered all factors before they came up with the odds? They are putting money where their mouths are.

According to the SportsOddsHistory archive, you have to go back to 1976, when President Jimmy Carter won over Gerald Ford, for the last time betting odds called the election the wrong way—and even then, Carter's odds were only slightly better than Ford's at +100.
@sree251 The betting odds are parimutuel. They automatically adjust as more bets are made to guarantee the house will always take a profit. Thus they represent the betting population, which may not reflect the voting population.

Since betting is a primarily male activity, the odds won't reflect if tRump has a woman problem. See the examples, below; betting odds are a very imperfect tool.

BTW, according to OddsShark, at 8:01 PM on election night, Nov 2016, Hillary was -900, tRump was +550.

UPDATE
Also see https://www.benzinga.com/news/20/11/18206213/how-the-betting-odds-for-trump-biden-fluctuated-on-election-night
There was apparently a period of 2020 election night when the betting odds of tRump winning were 88.5%

Oddsshark listed Biden as the favorite at 6 p.m. ET and he stayed ahead until 9:25 p.m. Biden’s odds dropped from 7:20 p.m. until Wednesday morning.

By 10:30 p.m., Trump’s odds to win re-election soared and he became the odds on favorite to win with an implied probability of 88.5%.

The morning after the election is seeing Biden as the favorite to win the election. Oddsshark lists Biden with a 77.8% win probability as of 7:30 a.m.. Odds from Betfair via Action Network list Biden with a 76.9% win probability as of 8 a.m.
windinhishair · 61-69, M
How sad those bettors are going to be when they lose bigly.
Betting sites are not reliable. A large bettor (rumored to be Elon Musk) inflated the price with a multi-million dollar investment in Trump winning, but with a ceiling to sell if the price gets above a certain level. So that skewed the percentages.
@LeopoldBloom I still don't see how betting sites can be a predictor when the majority of bets are placed by people who cannot vote in the election (e.g., Elon Musk)
sree251 · 41-45, M
@Mesthartiya
I still don't see how betting sites can be a predictor when the majority of bets are placed by people who cannot vote in the election (e.g., Elon Musk)

Elon Musk can vote. He is an American.
Vin53 · M
Its so obvious, have your own bets on trump rise so high people think its a sure thing and bet, and also those who want Harris but the odds are bad.

The betting agency doesn't pay off their own selves, they win no matter who wins.
@Vin53 Not only that, but those WSJ numbers don't include INDEPENDENT registrations. Given that independents usually swing elections, that's kind of a significant oversight, wouldn't you say??

Perhaps another case of reporting a misleading partial truth??
Gibbon · 70-79, M
Those are some large registration changes. It at least warms the heart that so many are seeing the reality of the dump they've turned our country into.
Who will lose and claim the election was stolen? Let the facts speak for themselves.

“Pennsylvania is cheating, and getting caught, at large scale levels rarely seen before. REPORT CHEATING TO AUTHORITIES. Law Enforcement must act, NOW!” Trump posted Wednesday [Oct 30] on Truth Social.

“An interview by Tucker Carlson of an election expert indicates that 20% of the Mail-In Ballots in Pennsylvania are fraudulent. Here we go again!” Trump posted on Truth Social on Sept. 8.

Nov 1: Justice Department dispatches election monitors to Florida, but state leaders say they can’t enter polling sites

In Michigan last weekend, he suggested there is no way Harris would be campaigning with Beyoncé — one of the biggest stars in the world — if the race were really as close as polls suggest.

“Number one, they cheat like hell. So maybe they know something that we don’t, right?” he said. “They might know something that we don’t, I don’t know. Why the hell would she be celebrating when you’re down? Maybe — never thought of that — maybe she knows something we don’t. But we’re not going to let it happen.”
North carlina is not a swing state
Republicans have won it a long time
windinhishair · 61-69, M
@rocknroll Thank you for proving my point. North Carolina is a swing state in this election, and it isn't surprising based on its recent voting history.
@windinhishair not a swing state at all
windinhishair · 61-69, M
@rocknroll Maybe North carilina is not, but North Carolina is.
justanothername · 51-55, M
Fact: Trump would rather appeal to dominant male voters who are outnumbered by female voters.

Fact: Trump would rather dominate women than appeal to them.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/11/01/politics/trump-women-voters-gender-gap-harris
Vin53 · M
CorvusBlackthorne · 100+, M
The facts are, my little іmbecіӏе, that any billionaire in this country will predict a Trump victory for the sake of their bottom line. They know he will once again cut taxes for the wealthiest Americans whilst raising them for the poor.
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