Who will win? Let the facts speak for themselves.

Betting odds favor Trump 63% to win.

Based on facts about four swing states:

1. North Carolina: Democrat's voter registration advantage has fallen from 399,000 to 113,000.
2. Pennsylvania: Democrat's voter registration advantage has fallen from 686,000 to 281,000.
3. Arizona: Republicans hold a 259,000 advantage over Democrats.
4.Nevada: Democrat's voter registration advantage has fallen from 111,000 to 45,000.

(Source: Wall Street Journal)

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ElwoodBlues · M

Funny thing: those WSJ numbers don't include INDEPENDENT registrations. Given that independents usually swing elections, that's kind of a significant oversight, wouldn't you say??

Also:

In the seven most contested battleground states, women have cast 55% of ballots so far, while men account for 45%, according to Catalist.

The latest ABC News/Ipsos national poll showed Trump trailing Harris among likely female voters by 14-points – a margin that far outpaces his 6-point lead among men.

“Early vote has been disproportionately female,” Charlie Kirk, president of Turning Point Action, a conservative group responsible for much of Trump’s ground strategy, posted on X. “If men stay at home, Kamala is president. It’s that simple.”

Speaking of Charlie Kirk, let's remember his advice from 2016

sree251 · 41-45, M

@ElwoodBlues

Funny thing: those WSJ numbers don't include INDEPENDENT registrations. Given that independents usually swing elections, that's kind of a significant oversight, wouldn't you say??

Don't you think the betting houses of the world have considered all factors before they came up with the odds? They are putting money where their mouths are.

According to the SportsOddsHistory archive, you have to go back to 1976, when President Jimmy Carter won over Gerald Ford, for the last time betting odds called the election the wrong way—and even then, Carter's odds were only slightly better than Ford's at +100.

ElwoodBlues · M

@sree251 The betting odds are parimutuel. They automatically adjust as more bets are made to guarantee the house will always take a profit. Thus they represent the betting population, which may not reflect the voting population.

Since betting is a primarily male activity, the odds won't reflect if tRump has a woman problem. See the examples, below; betting odds are a very imperfect tool.

BTW, according to OddsShark, at 8:01 PM on election night, Nov 2016, Hillary was -900, tRump was +550.

UPDATE
Also see https://www.benzinga.com/news/20/11/18206213/how-the-betting-odds-for-trump-biden-fluctuated-on-election-night
There was apparently a period of 2020 election night when the betting odds of tRump winning were 88.5%

Oddsshark listed Biden as the favorite at 6 p.m. ET and he stayed ahead until 9:25 p.m. Biden’s odds dropped from 7:20 p.m. until Wednesday morning.

By 10:30 p.m., Trump’s odds to win re-election soared and he became the odds on favorite to win with an implied probability of 88.5%.

The morning after the election is seeing Biden as the favorite to win the election. Oddsshark lists Biden with a 77.8% win probability as of 7:30 a.m.. Odds from Betfair via Action Network list Biden with a 76.9% win probability as of 8 a.m.