I'd love to believe this, but I think Allan Lichtman is kind of a crank. His 13 keys aren't bad indicators, but that's all they are. The idea that Biden should have stayed in the race, that makes sense according to the keys, but that's because the keys don't acknowledge things like most people thinking Biden's brain is soup. The keys are also just a math equation, if you have 6 you get reelected. They ignore the fact that certain areas matter more than others. If the economy is good, but people think Biden can't physically do another four years, the economy being good doesn't matter.
So yeah, don't trust Lichtman, we're still the underdogs here.
There's another component at play though. The only one that really matters. People voting.
SW-User
@Ynotisay Agreed. And yet the people voted exactly the way that Professor Lichtmann predicted every single time since 1984 (and again in 2000, but the SCOTUS stopped the count before it could be completed in Gore's favor).
I’m going to caution that there is another possibility: Lichtmann might just be wrong. His formula said Biden was a shoo-in for re-election, but does anyone still really believe that Biden was going to beat Trump this fall?
Besides, what’s he predicted, ten elections? In the grand scheme of things that’s a tiny sample size.
Of course I hope he’s right this time.
SW-User
@JPWhoo Well, we’ll never know whether Biden would have beaten Trump. But he is a history professor, and he did predict those ten elections by looking at how previous elections unfolded, and the historical data behind them.
Now the U.S. Supreme Court has spoken. Let there be no doubt, while I strongly disagree with the court's decision, I accept it. I accept the finality of this outcome which will be ratified next Monday in the Electoral College. And tonight, for the sake of our unity of the people and the strength of our democracy, I offer my concession.
Al Gore - December 13th 2000
Funny, it almost sounds as though he accepted it...?
@MasterLee Because he wanted to keep the count going. Once the SCOTUS stepped in, he accepted it. Unlike Trump who still hasn't accepted that he was defeated in a landslide in 2020 :)
