I’m going to caution that there is another possibility: Lichtmann might just be wrong. His formula said Biden was a shoo-in for re-election, but does anyone still really believe that Biden was going to beat Trump this fall?
Besides, what’s he predicted, ten elections? In the grand scheme of things that’s a tiny sample size.
Of course I hope he’s right this time.
SW-User
@JPWhoo Well, we’ll never know whether Biden would have beaten Trump. But he is a history professor, and he did predict those ten elections by looking at how previous elections unfolded, and the historical data behind them.