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beckyromero · 36-40, F
Yes, she can and, I believe, will win.
Trump has pretty much been locked in below 50% for the past 8 yrs.
He only got 46.1% of the popular vote when he won the electoral vote in 2016 against Hillary Clinton (48.2%)
He got 46.8% when losing to Joe Biden. (51.3%)
Trump hasn't topped 48% in the RealClearPolitics Poll Average in tracking since November 2022 and was as low as 45.1% just before the debate with President Biden.
Of course it's the Electoral College that decides who wins. But if Harris holds the "Blue Wall" (Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania) she will almost certainly win.
That said, she must hold Minnesota, New Hamsphire and Virginia as well. There are a couple tie scenarios because of the way Maine and Nebraska allocate their electoral votes.
But if she holds the "Blue Wall" and Minnesota, New Hamsphire and Virginia, any one of the following states would clinch a victory: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada (all states that Biden won) or North Carolina.
Holding the "Blue Wall" and winning either Georgia or North Carolina would about do it. Winning either Georgia or North Carolina almost certainly Virginia stays blue.
Winning Arizona almost certainly means Nevada stays blue.
And if Florida emerges as a battleground, she'll be on a road to a landslide.
Trump has pretty much been locked in below 50% for the past 8 yrs.
He only got 46.1% of the popular vote when he won the electoral vote in 2016 against Hillary Clinton (48.2%)
He got 46.8% when losing to Joe Biden. (51.3%)
Trump hasn't topped 48% in the RealClearPolitics Poll Average in tracking since November 2022 and was as low as 45.1% just before the debate with President Biden.
Of course it's the Electoral College that decides who wins. But if Harris holds the "Blue Wall" (Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania) she will almost certainly win.
That said, she must hold Minnesota, New Hamsphire and Virginia as well. There are a couple tie scenarios because of the way Maine and Nebraska allocate their electoral votes.
But if she holds the "Blue Wall" and Minnesota, New Hamsphire and Virginia, any one of the following states would clinch a victory: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada (all states that Biden won) or North Carolina.
Holding the "Blue Wall" and winning either Georgia or North Carolina would about do it. Winning either Georgia or North Carolina almost certainly Virginia stays blue.
Winning Arizona almost certainly means Nevada stays blue.
And if Florida emerges as a battleground, she'll be on a road to a landslide.
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newjaninev2 · 56-60, F
@Patriot96 do you find that because of your age people sometimes mistake you for an adult?
CestManan · 46-50, F
@newjaninev2 I doubt that ever happens. 😄
ElwoodBlues · M
I have that same question. One indication though is how rapidly support solidified behind Harris as soon as Biden bowed out.
American politics has never seen anything like that sudden eruption of support financial and numerical. I think it's because the parties that matter in 2024 are the Never Trump vs the Cult of Trump. So it doesn't really matter much who Harris is as long as she can stand up to Trump.
American politics has never seen anything like that sudden eruption of support financial and numerical. I think it's because the parties that matter in 2024 are the Never Trump vs the Cult of Trump. So it doesn't really matter much who Harris is as long as she can stand up to Trump.
Zonuss · 41-45, M
@ElwoodBlues Yes. A different type of energy is here now.
DeWayfarer · 61-69, M
The independents are not the only unknown factor.
What no pole will tell you, from either side, is what the unregistered are thinking. And they actually out number the whole independent party!
What no pole will tell you, from either side, is what the unregistered are thinking. And they actually out number the whole independent party!
beckyromero · 36-40, F
@DeWayfarer
Are you saying that HUMILIATING Putin wouldn't be beneficial for society?
Or do you doubt your ship handling capabilities?
Are you saying that HUMILIATING Putin wouldn't be beneficial for society?
Or do you doubt your ship handling capabilities?
Gibbon · 70-79, M
@beckyromero We are far apart politically but I'm an honest person. This comment truly made me laugh. I guess because it even works outside these rabbit holes.
DeWayfarer · 61-69, M
@beckyromero
Not practical!
Better ways of dealing with a "Nuclear" power! Like getting him away from red buttons!
You don't pilot a ship during a storm, when you are likely to get sea sick! That's as well not practical!
Only someone like Trump would be insane enough to do so!
He would sink the ship will all hands and passengers aboard, while puking all over each of them!
Are you saying that HUMILIATING Putin wouldn't be beneficial for society?
Not practical!
Better ways of dealing with a "Nuclear" power! Like getting him away from red buttons!
You don't pilot a ship during a storm, when you are likely to get sea sick! That's as well not practical!
Only someone like Trump would be insane enough to do so!
He would sink the ship will all hands and passengers aboard, while puking all over each of them!
UndeadSona · F
I don't think she can tbh, but it's still better than Joe, bruh was lost
solitaire · 41-45, F
Na she can't beat him
Patriot96 · 56-60, C
Kamalatoe has been installed by the democratic elite. No one voted for her.
Her polling numbers were in the toilet. Nowhere to go but up
Her polling numbers were in the toilet. Nowhere to go but up
SevIsPamprinYouAlways · 56-60, F
@Patriot96
“Her polling numbers when in the toilet.”
Must explain why she’s leading him now, 3 days after declaring!
“Her polling numbers when in the toilet.”
Must explain why she’s leading him now, 3 days after declaring!
LeopoldBloom · M
The polls are useless now and that result is within the margin of error. We should have a better idea in a week.
LeopoldBloom · M
@beckyromero Electoral-vote.com just said today that they're suspending their aggregations because averaging polls taken when Biden was a candidate until four days ago has no bearing on Harris' popularity. We'll know more after the Democratic convention.
I'm also convinced that many polls are overcorrecting for "shy Trump voters," and were underweighting for "shy Biden voters." I can imagine a churchgoing, suburban soccer mom being reluctant to tell a pollster that she plans to vote for Biden because she's worried her daughter might be raped and not be able to have an abortion. Whatever doubts people have about elections, nearly everyone believes that their vote is at least secret. But not everyone trusts what they tell a pollster is secret. So I think support for generic Democrats and abortion rights is higher than it looks.
However, even the most inaccurate poll is still useful for tracking changes over time, because the error is the same each time.
I'm also convinced that many polls are overcorrecting for "shy Trump voters," and were underweighting for "shy Biden voters." I can imagine a churchgoing, suburban soccer mom being reluctant to tell a pollster that she plans to vote for Biden because she's worried her daughter might be raped and not be able to have an abortion. Whatever doubts people have about elections, nearly everyone believes that their vote is at least secret. But not everyone trusts what they tell a pollster is secret. So I think support for generic Democrats and abortion rights is higher than it looks.
However, even the most inaccurate poll is still useful for tracking changes over time, because the error is the same each time.
beckyromero · 36-40, F
@LeopoldBloom
Yes, Trump voters are much more in-your-face now compared to 2016 and 2020.
Where before they might not want to talk to a pollster, now they are much more vocal about their support for Trump.
I'm also convinced that many polls are overcorrecting for "shy Trump voters,"
Yes, Trump voters are much more in-your-face now compared to 2016 and 2020.
Where before they might not want to talk to a pollster, now they are much more vocal about their support for Trump.
LeopoldBloom · M
@beckyromero Even with "shy Biden voters," Biden was still in trouble as he was underperforming compared to Democratic Senate and House candidates in the same states. If a pollster's algorithm is incorrect, the same error will be applied to everyone, so a poll that's inaccurate in an absolute sense will be accurate in a relative one.
JimboSaturn · 51-55, M
No Americans hate women politicians. One user here already is calling her Kumguzzler. America is a deeply misogynistic country.
Zonuss · 41-45, M
@JimboSaturn America is sexistI agree. And having the Secret Service director step down..who is also a woman, didn't help either. 🤔
LeopoldBloom · M
@JimboSaturn Hillary was much less appealing than Harris, and she won the popular vote. The misogynists were already going to vote for Trump.
JimboSaturn · 51-55, M
@LeopoldBloom That's true
eli1601 · 70-79, M
The more the public finds out about her, the worse she will do.
SevIsPamprinYouAlways · 56-60, F
@eli1601 Source: “Trust me, Bro!”
FreestyleArt · 31-35, M
So you're the only one for the laughing Hyena. Scary
Zonuss · 41-45, M
@FreestyleArt No. You just can't read. That's all. ☺️
Askeladd · 31-35, M
I don’t think she will win.
CestManan · 46-50, F
I hope so. Anyone except tRump.
SevIsPamprinYouAlways · 56-60, F
BohemianBabe · M
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newjaninev2 · 56-60, F
@Jimbo1
Men seem to feel that XY confers some sort of advantage, whereas the XX population (51% of the total population) sees it as conferring some sort of disadvantage.
and that's 51% who also vote (unless the Trump Party has its way)
becomes male
Men seem to feel that XY confers some sort of advantage, whereas the XX population (51% of the total population) sees it as conferring some sort of disadvantage.
and that's 51% who also vote (unless the Trump Party has its way)
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Zonuss · 41-45, M
@silentwriter180 Ok.
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Zonuss · 41-45, M
@ToddpicogramakaSatan What.
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