Kamala Harris poll numbers up after first speech...but can she beat Trump ? 👀
I watched her first official campaign speech I'm not sold. But she definitely convinced quite a few people in the comments section on most YouTube videos that she can beat the infamous Donald Trump. What do you think. Did she surprise you with her powerful words. Did she woo you with her charm and intellect. Shes at 44%...Trump is at 42%. Do you believe that Kamala Harris can really beat Donald Trump. Comments please. Best answer wins. ☺️🇺🇲
Trump has pretty much been locked in below 50% for the past 8 yrs.
He only got 46.1% of the popular vote when he won the electoral vote in 2016 against Hillary Clinton (48.2%)
He got 46.8% when losing to Joe Biden. (51.3%)
Trump hasn't topped 48% in the RealClearPolitics Poll Average in tracking since November 2022 and was as low as 45.1% just before the debate with President Biden.
Of course it's the Electoral College that decides who wins. But if Harris holds the "Blue Wall" (Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania) she will almost certainly win.
That said, she must hold Minnesota, New Hamsphire and Virginia as well. There are a couple tie scenarios because of the way Maine and Nebraska allocate their electoral votes.
But if she holds the "Blue Wall" and Minnesota, New Hamsphire and Virginia, any one of the following states would clinch a victory: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada (all states that Biden won) or North Carolina.
Holding the "Blue Wall" and winning either Georgia or North Carolina would about do it. Winning either Georgia or North Carolina almost certainly Virginia stays blue.
Winning Arizona almost certainly means Nevada stays blue.
And if Florida emerges as a battleground, she'll be on a road to a landslide.
I have that same question. One indication though is how rapidly support solidified behind Harris as soon as Biden bowed out.
American politics has never seen anything like that sudden eruption of support financial and numerical. I think it's because the parties that matter in 2024 are the Never Trump vs the Cult of Trump. So it doesn't really matter much who Harris is as long as she can stand up to Trump.
@beckyromero We are far apart politically but I'm an honest person. This comment truly made me laugh. I guess because it even works outside these rabbit holes.
@beckyromero Electoral-vote.com just said today that they're suspending their aggregations because averaging polls taken when Biden was a candidate until four days ago has no bearing on Harris' popularity. We'll know more after the Democratic convention.
I'm also convinced that many polls are overcorrecting for "shy Trump voters," and were underweighting for "shy Biden voters." I can imagine a churchgoing, suburban soccer mom being reluctant to tell a pollster that she plans to vote for Biden because she's worried her daughter might be raped and not be able to have an abortion. Whatever doubts people have about elections, nearly everyone believes that their vote is at least secret. But not everyone trusts what they tell a pollster is secret. So I think support for generic Democrats and abortion rights is higher than it looks.
However, even the most inaccurate poll is still useful for tracking changes over time, because the error is the same each time.
@beckyromero Even with "shy Biden voters," Biden was still in trouble as he was underperforming compared to Democratic Senate and House candidates in the same states. If a pollster's algorithm is incorrect, the same error will be applied to everyone, so a poll that's inaccurate in an absolute sense will be accurate in a relative one.
Men seem to feel that XY confers some sort of advantage, whereas the XX population (51% of the total population) sees it as conferring some sort of disadvantage.
and that's 51% who also vote (unless the Trump Party has its way)
